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Betting NBA Totals -- Numbers to Know This Year!
by ASA - 02/10/2012
Earlier this year we did an article on scoring in the NBA and the effect of the condensed schedule. We talked about how teams were scoring less points per game this season compared to last and the correlation to Totals. To date the 'unders' in the NBA have cashed at a solid 55% rate thus far. According to our data the average points scored per game this season is 189.2 ppg which is down from the 198 average last season. It's not due to pace of play by teams either considering the average possessions per game in 2012 is 95 per game which is the exact average for all of last season. One of the big reasons for the lower scoring games is the shooting percentages. Last year teams averaged just under 46% for the season and this year that number is hovering around just 44%. Teams are also averaging less free throws made per game this year compared to last along with field goal attempts per game. All in all it leads to lower scoring games this season and less points being scored by guys being paid millions of dollars to put a ball through a hoop.
In sorting through our database we've found some interesting numbers we would like to make you aware of. Again, the average points scored in NBA games this year is 189.2. In direct relation the average line or total that the oddsmakers have put on NBA games is 187.75. Of 365 games played to date 183 have resulted with 187 or MORE points and 182 have resulted with 187 or LESS points. That's about as close to even as it gets. Now if we look at some specific numbers we find some advantages for the Sports Bettors which we'll share with you forthcoming. Of the first 365 games played at this point only 101 have ended with 200 or more points being scored. That's less than one-third. When Vegas has posted a total on a game of 200 or more points the UNDER has cashed 23 of 34 games or 68% of the time. Looking at the other end of the spectrum, games with a posted total of 180.5 or less have an OVER record of 27-15 (64%) so far this season. Now we would never recommend that you blindly bet 'over' or 'under' on games based on the above statistics but it's not a bad starting point when considering your wagers.
The following are the teams that have been strong 'under' bets this season, staying below the Total in 60% or better in all of their games to date.
Knicks 7-18 72%
Suns 8-17 68%
Raptors 9-16-1 64%
Rockets 9-16 64%
Mavericks 9-16 64%
Kings 9-15-1 62.5%
Celtics 9-14-1 60.9%
Blazers 10-15 60%
Lakers 10-15 60%
Grizzlies 10-15 60%
It's a short list of teams that are averaging 60% or greater on 'overs' this season:
Bucks 14-9-1 60.9%
As we suggested in our earlier article the oddsmakers will continue to adjust their numbers so we will maintain our adjustments in an effort to stay ahead of the curve. We've built a very strong reputation in the Sports Betting Industry as one of the best in the business when it comes to handicapping Totals and we will continue to monitor NBA scoring and keep you informed on the statistical side of things.
Best of luck with all your wagers!