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College Hoops: Back to Back Road Games

   by Bryan Leonard - 12/07/2011

I remember 1984 well growing up in Cleveland. The Browns were struggling, the young Cavaliers were looking for a shining star in the NBA draft, and the Indians were still searching for their first World Series title since 1948. How times have changed! While the year might have been a bit thin on hope for Cleveland's pro franchises, '84 was more enriching for me. That's when I began my sports handicapping career examining basketball sides and totals. I started out strictly as a basketball bettor, doing very well, so much so that people in the sports information business began encouraging me to expand my talent, which eventually led to my moving to Las Vegas.
Since then I've made basketball betting lines for one of the top offshore sports books, and documented by the Sports Monitor several times one of the Top 3 in combined college and pro basketball selections.
It's not easy. However, oddsmakers do make errors on lines, and there are many situational angles that can one can use to identify winning edges in hoops. Many bettors are overwhelmed by the amount of basketball games each season that it can sometimes get discouraging. I look at it very differently: So many games in both the colleges and the pros provide more opportunities for peaks, hot streaks and bad lines to pounce on each week. You just have to know how, and where, to look.
College basketball scheduling is very important. One angle I look at is road favorites playing their first game in a back-to-back situation. What you have here is a potential play on the home dog for several reasons. Coaches of road favorites in that situation often look to rest players in the second half for two reasons. One is that if they get a big lead early, as a road favorite is expected to, then they start thinking about the next game, which is tomorrow night. Coaches will look to rest starters more than normal in that situation because he knows he has to play the next night.
The second part of that is: What happens if the road favorite finds itself trailing instead of leading? If they are way behind on the road, a coach can do the same strategy, bench his best players late. Not because he has a lead, of course, but because he's writing the game off, in a sense, to save his best for a better effort the next night. The home dog has several edges taking on a team playing the first game of a back-to-back spot.
Don't get discouraged! It's not easy, but winning at basketball is very possible. And don't take my word for it: Ask some of my competitors, or examine my record. There's an old saying, “Take your job seriously but not yourself.” I would have to admit I'm guilty of both!

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