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Betting NFL Totals
by ASA - 09/23/2011
NFL Over/Under First Two Week Trend:
By ASA, Inc
Over bettors in the NFL have cleaned up the first two weeks of the season as Totals have gone 'over' at a combined 22-10 clip. Breaking that down further in week #1 the 'over' cashed in on 12 of 16 games. In week #2 the 'over' record was 10-6. What will happen in Week 3?
We went back and looked at the first two weeks in previous season's and found some interesting statistics. In 2010 the average total points scored per game was 39 ppg in week's 1 and 2. This year that number has jumped dramatically to 47 total points per game. (We'll get to some reasoning why this could be happening a little further down in the article.) Now let's take a look at what Vegas has set for Over/Unders along with how it can affect future wagers. In 2010 Vegas set an average 'total' or 'over/under' number of 41.4 in weeks 1 and 2. This year Vegas set an average total number of 40.9 in week 1 then adjusted to 43.3 in week 2. Now they've raised the bar a little more with an average total of 44.3 for this upcoming weekend. Historically, week 3 has been higher scoring than weeks 1 & 2 in 6 of the past eight seasons.
So what's contributing to these higher scoring games? While we can't say for sure it may have to do with the Lockout and the shorter prep time along with conditioning for the players and coaches. Could it be the rule changes regarding defensive back and less hitting in practices? One thing for sure is that passing, league wide, is certainly up this year as teams are averaging 246.4 yards per game passing in the first two weeks compared to the 2010 average of 221.3 ypg. On average the league is completing a combined 27.2 more passes per week this season compared to 2010. It's been said the NFL is turning into a pass first league and the numbers from the first two weeks certainly support that thinking. In 2010 the percentage of pass plays called by offensive coordinators was 57% per game. This year that number has trended up to 59%. On average teams are running 63 plays per game thus far this season which is the exact average of 2010. It's interesting to note that 12 teams are averaging over 6.0 yards per play this season compared to only 3 teams finishing above that number last season.
Explosive plays are clearly contributing to the higher scoring games too as teams are converting points inside the Red Zone just 48% of the time this season compared to 53% all of last season.
Numbers of note through the first two weeks of the NFL:
- 172 touchdowns the first two weeks which is an NFL record.
- 15,771 passing yards the first two weeks.
- Five 400+ yards passing games the first two weeks.
- 15 non-offensive TD's in weeks 1 & 2 combined.
If you're a 'total' player we aren't recommending blindly betting all of the 'overs' this week but looking at 'over' instead of 'under' may be the way to go until that trend turns in the NFL.
Best of luck with all your wagers this weekend!