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NFL Total Win Bets
by ASA - 09/06/2011
ASA has broken down the NFL teams schedules and found the best value for your Total Win bets this season. Obviously injuries to key personnel can have a dramatic effect on these proposition bets but based on the schedules, rosters, coaching and statistics we feel these are three solid investments for the upcoming season.
Over 11 wins Pittsburgh Steelers
Our first O/U future bet is on the OVER 11 wins for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Looking at the Steelers 16 game regular season schedule we can make a very strong argument they'll be favored in 14 or 15 games. Their strength of schedule is ridiculously low as they play the 27th toughest schedule based on this year's opponents wins and losses from a year ago. They play the Ravens twice and get the Patriots at home which are easily their three hardest games of the season but yet are all winnable. They somehow got the NFC West this year which is Seattle, St Louis, Arizona and San Francisco none of which had a winning record last year and combined for a 25-39 SU record in 2010. Pittsburgh returns most of their starters from a team that lost in the Super Bowl last year and will again have the best or one of the best defenses in the league.
Under 4.5 wins Carolina Panthers
We're not sure how but the Panthers, who had the worst record in the league last year at 2-14, have the hardest schedule based on last year's W/L records by opponents. They get the NFC North which features the Super Bowl Champion Packers, the 11-5 Bears, and the vastly improved Lions and Vikings. Next throw in the rest of the NFC South with a 13-3 Falcons team, an up-and-coming Buccaneers (10-6) team twice and then the double-dose of the (11-5) Saints. Looking at their overall schedule it's easy to make a case that the Panthers won't be a favorite in ANY of their games this season. We're one group of experts that's not sold on Cam Newton and feel he's closer to a Vince Young than Donovan McNabb. The Panthers haven't improved at enough positions on either side of the football and will finish at the bottom of the NFC South again in 2011 with just 3 wins.
Under 7.5 wins Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs had a Cinderella story season last year finishing 10-6 and winning the AFC West. On closer examination we see their 10 win season was somewhat of a mirage as only ONE of those ten victories came against a team that finished the year with a winning record. The combined record of the ten teams they beat was a horrendous 61-99 last season. This year the schedule makers haven't been as nice to the Chiefs as they play the 3rd toughest overall schedule in the NFL. They get the NFC North Division with Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit along with the Patriots, Steelers, Jets and a Colts team that might have Peyton Manning in the lineup when they meet on Oct 9th. Kansas City must start the season by playing 4 of their first six games on the road and could be just 2-4 to start the season. They then have a break with three straight home games but then go to New England, host Pittsburgh, at Chicago, at Jets then host Green Bay. Ugh!
Best of luck this season from the staff at ASA, Inc