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Baseball Betting: This Week in Value
by Matt Fargo - 05/19/2011
The baseball season is in full swing and Matt Fargo will be examining teams that are making moves up or falling hard and how they can make us some money by either playing on or against. This week he takes a look at the teams that will be providing some good value by looking at the other side.
New York Mets 20-22 -0.95 Units
The Mets have been up and down all season long. They are currently part of an upswing as they have gone 8-4 in their last 12 games heading into Thursday. While the adage says to roll with the streaks in baseball, this is one streak we cannot back. New York has surprisingly been a better road team than a home team and that shows in its profits (+455 to -550). Making that even more surprising is that the road slate has been a brutal one and it remains difficult making this success away from home tougher to keep up.
Following their series finale at home against Washington, the Mets head into the 'Subway Series' with the Yankees in the Bronx. The Yankees have been in a mild slide but they have taken seven of the last 10 meetings with their cross-city rivals. The Mets then travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs starting Tuesday and while they are struggling, Chicago will present us with some good home value. New York returns home for a set with the Phillies next weekend and being on the road, Philadelphia will have value on its side.
Cleveland Indians 26-14 +15.72 Units
The Indians are the most profitable team in baseball, and by a wide margin, so putting them on the play against side may seem unwise but this is where we look to buy low and sell high. Because the Indians have been playing so well at home with a 15-4 record, the value will be in playing against Cleveland in the foreseeable future. It took a while for the linesmakers to catch up with the Indians hot start so playing on them has lost its luster. Instead, we look for the best spots to fade.
The upcoming schedule will help. In their Interleague series this weekend, the Indians host Cincinnati which has been playing exceptional with an 11-3 record over its last 14 games. The Reds have a winning record on the road this season so going into Cleveland should not be a problem. Following that the Reds host Boston which is finally getting things together after a horrid start as the Red Sox are 20-10 over their last 30 games. If that isn't tough enough, the Indians travel to Tampa Bay starting next Friday.