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NFL Week 1 Money-Making Situations

   by Tom Stryker - 09/07/2010

The first week of the NFL can be a difficult one to handicap.  Success or failure in the Pre-Season doesn’t always translate into regular season wins and losses.  Free agency does a number on team chemistry too.  Yesterday’s talent isn’t always the same as todays and there could be growing pains on either side of the ball when a bunch of new personnel is shuffled in or out.
I’ve been grinding in the sports handicapping field since 1984 and I’ve found a couple of ways to cash tickets early in the NFL season.  Listed below is the game one record followed by a most recent trend or significant angle for each team in the league.  You’ll notice that some have performed better than others lately.  Take a look.
Minnesota – 17-13 SU and 14-16 ATS with MRT of 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS
New Orleans – 13-17 SU and 15-15 ATS with MRT of 8-4 SU and ATS
Carolina – 6-9 SU and 7-11 ATS with 4 overs and 11 unders
NY Giants – 17-13 SU and 16-14 ATS with MRT of 14-8 SU and ATS
Miami – 17-3 SU and 16-12-2 ATS with MRT of 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS
Buffalo – 14-16 SU and 15-14-1 ATS with MRT of 5-0 ATS
Atlanta – 16-14 SU and 18-11-1 ATS with MRT of 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS
Pittsburgh – 17-13 SU and 12-16-2 ATS with MRT of 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS
Detroit – 16-14 SU and 18-12 ATS with MRT of 0-2 SU and ATS
Chicago – 16-14 SU and ATS with MRT of 3-6 SU and ATS
Cincinnati – 12-18 SU and 11-19 ATS with MRT of 10-17 SU and 9-18 ATS
New England – 19-11 SU and 16-12-2 ATS with 19 overs and 10 unders and 1 tie
Cleveland – 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS
Tampa Bay – 12-18 SU and 11-19 ATS with MRT of 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS
Denver – 20-10 SU and 18-12 ATS but just 6-6 ATS as a guest
Jacksonville – 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS with MRT of 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS
Indianapolis – 15-15 SU and 14-14-2 ATS with MRT of 12-6 SU and 10-6-2 ATS
Houston – 3-5 SU and ATS with MRT of 1-5 SU and ATS
Oakland – 14-16 SU and 16-13-1 ATS with MRT of 5-14 SU and 6-12-1 ATS
Tennessee – 15-15 SU and 17-13 ATS with MRT of 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS
Green Bay – 18-12 SU and 14-16 ATS with MRT of 3-0 SU and ATS
Philadelphia – 14-16 SU and 14-15-1 ATS with MRT of 4-2 SU and ATS
San Francisco – 18-2 SU and 14-16 ATS with MRT of 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS
Seattle – 12-18 SU and ATS and 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS as an underdog
Arizona – 8-22 SU and 13-17 ATS and 3-6 ATS as a favorite
St. Louis – 14-16 SU and 11-18-1 ATS with MRT of 4-6 SU and 1-8-1 ATS
Dallas – 18-12 SU and 18-11-1 ATS and 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS vs division foe
Washington – 14-16 SU and 12-16-2 ATS and 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS vs division foe
Baltimore – 12-18 SU and 13-16-1 ATS and 6-11 SU and 6-10-1 ATS away
NY Jets – 13-17 SU and 14-14-2 ATS with MRT of 7-6 SU and 8-4-1 ATS
San Diego – 17-13 SU and 15-13-2 ATS with MRT of 10-6 SU and ATS
Kansas City – 17-13 SU and 18-11-1 ATS with MRT of 5-9 SU and 5-8-1 ATS
Technical handicapping has been a big part of my arsenal over the years and I do have a couple of great NFL systems that have worked well in week one of the season.
It shouldn’t take much for a team to get up emotionally for their first game.  This is the lid-lifter and, since the wins and losses actually count, that should be enough.   Fortunately, there is another area that cranks up the level of intensity and that is if two division foes are doing battle.  Losing your first game is bad enough.  But, slipping in the division standings after week one makes things that much worse.  Take a look at my first system that will keep you in the profit zone.
Since 1981, division home dogs priced at +6’ or less in their season opener have struggled a touch notching a soft 12-30 SU and 17-24-1 ATS record.  If our “play against” host tasted the thrill of victory in five games or less last season, this technical situation crashes to a woeful 4-20 SU and 6-18 ATS.  This year, four home dogs are locked into this set:  Seattle, St. Louis, Washington and Kansas City. 
Poor NFL teams don’t usually improve by leaps and bounds from one year to the next and the record of this system proves that fact.   If we bring the price down on this game a little bit and make our home pup shagging +5 or less, this system actually dips down to a stiff 3-15 SU and ATS!  At press time, only the Seahawks, Rams and Redskins apply.
There is a second NFL situation to look at that has been quite rewarding in season openers as well.  Since 1981, game one division hosts that won nine or more regular season games the previous year are a respectable 51-14 SU and 39-26 ATS!  Here we have a team that was better than .500 in the standings a year ago opening up with an important division contest in their own backyard.  This technical gem improves to a profitable 18-3 SU and 17-4 ATS provided our “play on” home team is competitively priced from -3 to an underdog!  There is one side that applies to both parts of this angle on Sunday – Houston plus the points over Indianapolis.
Week one of the NFL regular season can be filled with traps.  The game one records combined with the two opening week pro systems should be able to provide you with enough winning information to help get out of the gate quickly.  I’ll be back again next week with another insightful gridiron article.  Best of luck, TS.

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