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Foreign Soil Failure
by Tom Stryker - 10/09/2009
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine that college football teams are more comfortable playing at home than they are on the road. Practicing in their own backyard, sleeping in their own beds and being able to relax with their teammates and friends goes a long way. Of course, like some things in life, too much good can lead to trouble.
When I started researching this week’s card, I was looking to see how well teams performed during a series of consecutive home games. After hours of countless searches, I didn’t really find much. I looked at how well home teams did in back-to-back home games coming off a straight up loss, how they performed at home off a pair of SU and ATS home wins and how successful they were as a host coming off back-to-back straight up home losses. There were a few areas that showed profit but nothing that really kept my interest.
Then, by accident, I stumbled across a technical situation that was rare but extremely effective. Since 1980, this specific set of parameters only delivered 35 plays – an average of 1.2 selections per year. Even though there may be only one play per season, the reward was significant. Take a look at this technical gem.
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any college football road team provided they check in off a string of three (or more) home favorite straight up wins and covers.
29 Year ATS Record = 24-11 ATS for 68.6 percent!
This Week’s Play = OREGON STATE
Winning three games at home is a tremendous accomplishment for any college football team. Winning and covering those three games all priced as a favorite make the feat even more incredible. There is one team on Saturday’s card that had done exactly that. Stanford is on quite a roll right now and enters Saturday’s game at Oregon State off a nifty 3-0 SU and ATS home favorite run. The Cardinal steamrolled San Jose State (-17’ WON 42-17), smashed Washington (-9’ WON 34-14) and drilled UCLA (-5 WON 24-16) all in the comforts of Stanford Stadium. Needless to say, this is going to be a tough encore for Jim Harbaugh’s troops.
There are a couple of ways to tighten up this system that squeezes out even more profit. If our guest checks in off an emotional conference battle, this situation crashes to a stiff 4-16 ATS. Stanford faced UCLA in its last game and the Cardinal applies.
That tightener is noteworthy but this next parameter really makes this investment pop. With our 4-16 ATS in hand, this system dips to a stunning 0-12 ATS provided our “play on” host battled on the road in their last contest. Oregon State tackled Arizona State in the desert last week and that means the Beavers apply to this perfect situation!
Stanford fits the bill as our Foreign Soil Failure this week and the Cardinal is in trouble. Good luck with Oregon State on Saturday men!