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Don't Overreact To...

   by ASA - 09/29/2009

I've been handicapper a long time now and one of many things I've learned in this business is to NOT overreact to one performance by an individual or a couple games by a team. Yes, you have to adjust your thinking about a team if they consistently perform differently than you thought, but you never want to completely change your opinion about a team because of short-term results. One week a team is the greatest ever, the next they stink! I hear it from clients all the time, "how could you pick so-and-so, they're the worst team ever!" A really good handicapper doesn't view teams that way and must be more objective than that. So each week I will cover some teams or players that you shouldn't overreact to.
Miami Hurricanes - Prior to the Virginia Tech game some pundits were talking about the 'U' being a potential dark-horse for the National Championship game. Miami was 2-0 with quality wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech while Va Tech was 1-1. You've all heard the quote: "There's no 'I' in team" before but how about this one: "there is a 'U' in quit"! But don't overreact to that Miami loss as Virginia Tech is 52-9 SU at home since 2000 and Blacksburg is still one of the toughest venues to play at in college football. Ask yourself this question: If Miami was hosting Oklahoma prior to their loss to Va Tech what would the spread have been? The Canes certainly wouldn't be a 7-point home underdog. Miami all of a sudden is not a 'bad' team because of one bad loss.
Indiana Hoosiers - Indiana is 3-1 and narrowly missed being 4-0 with a close loss to Michigan but don't get caught up just looking at the Hoosiers record and one good game. IU has escaped by the skin of their teeth in their first three games as they beat Eastern Kentucky 19-13 but EKU threw a costly INT late in the game in the endzone as they were about to score the game leading TD. Against Western Michigan they led 23-19 with less than a minute to go in the game when WMU fumbled on first and goal. The Hoosiers then caught Akron in the perfect situation as the Zips suspended their starting QB the day before their game against IU. The Hoosiers then traveled to Michigan to play the young Wolverines who were clearly looking ahead to this week's game versus Michigan State. Don't overreact to a Indiana 3-1 record with one good showing versus Michigan
Denver Broncos - Stop the presses...the Broncos are 3-0! Don't start thinking the Broncos are all of a sudden the team or even a team to beat in the AFC. Denver was 8-8 last season and have a ton of new personnel this year including a new head coach and starting QB. The Broncos have beaten the Bengals, Browns and Raiders who are a combined 2-7 SU this season and were a horrendous 13-35 last season. In the next 8 weeks the Broncos face a brutal schedule which includes Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego and the New York Giants. I'm guessing they win just one of their next eight!
Arizona Cardinals - The defending NFC Champions have struggled out of the gate with a 1-2 record and some experts are writing them off. I'm not going to overreact to last week's results or their overall losing record and I still feel the Cardinals could be a 'player' in the NFC. The Cardinals two losses came to the 49ers and Colts who are a combined 5-1 this season. Just because everyone watched the Cardinals get surgically dissected by Peyton Manning they feel the Cardinals are horrible but the fact of the matter is: not everyone has a Peyton Manning leading their team AND Arizona is still loaded offensively AND they play in the weak NFC West. Don't overreact to Arizona's last game.
Brett Favre - Sure Favre is a Hall of Famer and great for the NFL but don't overreact to his game winning, last second TD against the 49ers last Sunday. I'm confident in saying there isn't another QB on the Vikings staff that could have made that play and it earned the Vikes a 'W' they wouldn't have gotten with Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels playing QB. BUT Viking fans you can rest assured just as Favre won this game he's going to cost you a win down the road with an errant INT late in the game this season.

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