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Stay on the Cash Express
by Tom Stryker - 09/24/2009
It doesn’t matter if you’re handicapping football, basketball or baseball, momentum is a valuable tool. When teams finally get their act together and play well, they have a tendency to do it for a number of games in a row or a set period of time.
With that theory in mind, I decided to take a look at how well college football teams do provided they get out of the gate quickly. My knee-jerk reaction was to fade these clubs that opened up hot thinking they would cool off sooner rather than later. It’s a good think I consulted my college football database before doing that. It would have cost me and my bankroll dearly. Take a look at this discovery.
Since 1980, PLAY ON any game four college football team provided they open with a 3-0 SU and ATS run.
29 Year ATS Record = 51-40 ATS for 56.0 percent.
This Week’s Plays = MICHIGAN, BOISE STATE & AUBURN.
There’s not a bundle of profit with that general situation. However, it’s good enough to warrant a closer look. That’s exactly what I did.
If our “play on” team is matched up against an opponent that enters with a little momentum of their own off a straight up victory, this system tightens up to a money-making 37-22 ATS for 62.7 percent. With good ‘ol “Mo” on both sides, the value on this contest is kept in check. If our 3-0 SU and ATS team was matched up against an opponent that arrived off a blowout loss, the line probably would have been way too inflated to even consider. Of the three teams listed above, only Michigan fits this tightener.
There are two other areas I found that makes this system even stronger. With our 37-22 ATS in hand and our side off a non-conference affair, this technical gem zips to a phenomenal 30-13 ATS for 69.7 percent. Conference games tend to be a little more emotional and physical and they can leave a team tired and fatigued. Off a non-conference game, the argument could be made that our side stays fresh and focused. The Wolverines apply to this special parameter too.
Finally, clinging to our 30-13 ATS set, this power situation tightens up to a remarkable 22-5 ATS for 81.4 percent provided our “play on” club is effectively priced as a favorite of -21 or less. Fortunately for us, the Maize and Blue are resting at -20 at press time which means UM fits this parameter perfectly.
Off three wins over Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron, Indiana will be making a huge step up in class here when the Hoosiers travel to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. The Wolverines check in off a 3-0 SU and ATS run over Western Michigan, Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan and UM will be looking to dominate an IU team they’ve whipped in 22 of the last 23 meetings (15-8 ATS). Stay on the cash express with Michigan! I'll be back next week with another insightful handicapping article. Good luck, TS.