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NBA Hot and Cold Bets

   by Matt Fargo - 03/31/2009



NBA Hot Bets



Wednesday – Sacramento Kings at Golden St. Warriors 10:30 PM ET



The Warriors got off to a horrible start this season but since January 11th, they have gone 15-19 (19-13-2 ATS) which is far from playoff material but considering the start to the season was 10-28, this has been a huge turnaround. It is no coincidence that Golden St. has played better when Monta Ellis is in the lineup. The Warriors are 11-11 (14-6-2 ATS) in the 22 games he has played in so they are no doubt a better ballclub when he is in the lineup. Sacramento plays at home against New Orleans on Tuesday before heading to Golden St. the next night. That puts the Kings in one of their worst spots this season. They have played back-to-back games on 19 previous occasions and of those, they have registered only three wins (9-10 ATS). Sacramento has been decent as underdogs, going 28-30 ATS but it has trouble with the smaller lines, going 4-13 ATS when getting fewer than six points. Keep an eye on this line to see if we catch a number in this range.



Thursday – Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets 10:30 PM ET



Denver remains atop the Northwest Division and it sitting in the final playoff slot that has the homecourt edge so winning is a huge priority right now. The Nuggets have been solid at home, going 28-8 on the season (20-15-1 ATS) including wins in eight of their last nine (5-4 ATS). Denver hosts the Knicks prior to this game on Tuesday and host the Clippers on Saturday so there is no letdown or lookahead possible. This will be the second straight road game for the Jazz as they are at another tough opponent from the division, Portland, on Tuesday. Utah has been decent in the division, going 10-3 but just 5-8 against the number. It will be an underdog in this spot for a win means a cover but getting those wins on the road has been a chore, especially when getting points. The Jazz are 3-14 as road underdogs, including a 6-11 ATS mark. This marks the third straight revenge game in this series and the home team has avenged the prior loss both times.



NBA Cold Bets



Tuesday – Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazers 10:00 PM ET



Utah is on the road and we all know what that could entail. Of all of the Western Conference teams in the top eight eligible for the playoffs, the Jazz have the worst road record of the bunch. After winning a season high four straight road games, Utah has now lost four of its last five games away from home, a win in Oklahoma City being the lone exception. On top of the road woes, Utah has been dreadful this season when playing with no rest, going 3-14 including a 5-12 ATS mark. The Jazz are also 4-14 as underdogs, covering only seven of those 18 games. Portland is now 30-7 at home this season, going 22-14-1 ATS. Both teams are right in the thick of the Northwest Division with Utah trailing Denver two games and Portland trailing by a game and a half. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning and covering six straight meetings including the first three this season.



Tuesday –Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers 7:00 PM ET



The Hawks have been on a very solid run as they have won nine of their last 12 games (9-2-1 ATS) and have clinched a playoff spot. They are currently sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, ahead of Miami by three and a half games so it looks as though home court in the first round is a given. Looking at this recent 12-game stretch however shows that 11 of those games were at home so while solid, it could be considered a bit skewed. Atlanta is 14-22 on the road but a decent 19-16-1 ATS in those games however this is a very tough spot considering the lack of travel in recent weeks. The Sixers are likely safe in the playoff race but they are more concerned about seeding as they want to catch Miami for the fifth spot to avoid a first round matchup with Cleveland, Orlando or Boston. This is the start of the final homestand of the season for Philadelphia as it plays three straight at home before finishing with five of the final seven games on the road.

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