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No Payback Payday
by Tom Stryker - 02/25/2009
College basketball teams refer to this contest as "senior night." It is the final home game of the regular season where athletes get one last chance to walk off their homecourt a winner. This is an emotional evening for both players and coaches. There are times when this event leads to a lackluster performance because of all the distractions involved. However, for the most part, this is usually the one game where you know that a home team will give literally everything its got in order to pick up a victory.
Sports handicappers in the industry like to label this battle as an "LHG". There are a bunch of different technical ways a 'Capper can break teams down in last home game sets. Some use revenge while others actually go against high priced favorites. Personally, I have 10 reliable Last Home Game Systems in my portfolio and all have made me a ton of money in the past. The one I am going to share with you today is lucky No. 7 and it's called "No Payback Payday". Take a look.
Since 1990, college basketball teams playing in their last home game of the season carry a 1545-1448 ATS record for 51.6 percent. That doesn't give any profit (counting the vig) but it does indicate right off the bat that the potential is there!
With our base in hand, let's make our LHG team affordably priced. After breaking down the lines a number of different ways, I discovered the most profit was found when our host was an underdog or a favorite of -4 or less. In this set, the home team improves to 778-683 ATS for 53.2 percent. This tightener puts us in the black. If you invested $100 per game on all of those last home game sets, you would have pocketed $2,670 in net profit with the juice.
Here's the spot where this system goes from good to great. With our 778-683 ATS on the board, this technical set improves to a sizzling 133-87 ATS for 60.4 percent provided our host owns a won/loss percentage of .375 or better and they are not playing with revenge. By eliminating bad teams and those that might be playing with too much emotional energy (revenge sets can do that), this No Payback Payday system now nets a $100 investor $3,730 in net profit. The nice part about that number is you only had to invest on 220 total games instead of 1,461 contests to get that money. Talk about less risk!
There is one additional parameter that can be added to the last tightener that makes this system really pop. If we remove those home teams that won 11 or more games on their homecourt this season, this technical set zips to a blistering 96-51 ATS for 65.3 percent! The stronger homecourts lead to inflated numbers. By taking a team that owns 10 home wins or less we can eliminate those squads that might come overpriced.
The Horizon League has its conference tournament on Tuesday, March 3rd and that will officially begin March Madness. These "No Payback Payday" last home game sets will start popping up on Tuesday, February 24th and last through the end of the regular season. Be sure to hang on to this powerful college basketball system. It will definitely make you money in the weeks to come! I'll be back next week with another informative handicapping article. Best of luck this weekend, Tom Stryker.