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Conference Title Game Notes
by Tom Stryker - 01/15/2009
NFL Conference Championship Notes
By Tom Stryker
According to my powerful NFL Database, Conference Championship hosts have produced a respectable 37-19 SU and 31-25 ATS record over the past 28 seasons. Within that set of 56 games, there are a variety of tighteners you can look at that make things look better (or worse) for the host. Here are just a couple.
If our NFL Conference Championship host checks in with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, this situation improves to a solid 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS. Of course, it should be noted that hosts in this set are just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS since 1999! Both Arizona and Pittsburgh fit this special tightener on Sunday.
If our Championship home team is matched up against an opponent that enters off back-to-back road games, this system tightens up to a solid 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Both the Cardinals and Steelers apply.
Even though this doesn't play a factor this weekend, favorites of -9.5 or more in this round of the playoffs are a dismal 4-9 ATS.
If we flip this situation around and look at it from the road team's perspective, there is one situation that stands out. If our Conference Championship guest is entering off a strong offensive performance in which it scored 22 points or more, the visitor is a wallet-breaking 10-30 SU and 14-26 ATS. Philadelphia applies this week off its 23-point outburst at New York. For future reference, please note that the road team is a shocking 0-10 ATS in this situation if they enter off a 35-point (or more) performance.
Technically speaking and on paper both the NFC and AFC Conference Championships will be great games. Philadelphia and Baltimore are being asked to win three straight on the road in the playoffs and they have to do it against an Arizona and Pittsburgh bunch that were a combined 14-4 SU at home this season. Good luck on Sunday men!