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NFL Late Season System
by Tom Stryker - 12/11/2008
Handicapping the last three weeks of the NFL regular season can be tricky. The linemaker has made adjustments for those teams still in the playoff hunt and the pointspreads on those battles carry little value.
Trying to determine the mindset of a team that has been eliminated is no easy task either. Will those not making it to the post season play the role of a spoiler or toss in the towel? Thankfully, my pro database has helped me determine what situations are significant and profitable at this time of the year.
The technical gem that I'm about to break down isn't that flashy. The parameters that make it click are simplistic. However, this NFL Late-Season Awesome Encore really packs a pointspread punch. Take a look!
Since 1980, non-division regular season hosts from game 14 to game 16 are a respectable 66-44 ATS provided they enter off a straight up underdog win. Momentum continues to be an effective tool when it comes to handicapping the NFL and, off an upset win late in the season, teams tend to carry over that quality of play especially at home in a non-division situation. Fortunately for us, there are two squads locked into this "play on" set this weekend: Miami and Philadelphia.
There are a couple of parameters that really make this system pop. First, if our side checks in off a straight up underdog win over a division opponent, technical treat improves to an incredible 39-16 ATS! Miami enters off a win over Buffalo while Philadelphia checks in off a victory over New York which means the Fish and Green Birds apply to this tightener.
Finally, with our 39-16 ATS in hand, a 7-7 ATS record can be removed if we eliminate bad teams. If our host carries a won/loss percentage of .400 or better, this system explodes to a nifty 32-9 ATS! Guess what? Both the Dolphins and Eagles apply!
Good luck with Miami and Philadelphia (on Monday) and be sure to check back next week for the first of three powerful college bowl systems.