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A Pac 10 Puppy With No Bite
by Tom Stryker - 10/24/2008
Upsets are a part of college football. They happen on a weekly basis. Emotionally, any team can rise to an occasion and knock off an opponent they werenâ€™t supposed to defeat.
This weekâ€™s College System of the Week preyâ€™s upon a team that just beat a conference foe at home in an underdog situation. Without question, the team that just picked up the surprising victory is somewhere on â€œCloud Nineâ€쳌! Theyâ€™re not thinking about next weekâ€™s opponent. Theyâ€™re enjoying the fruits of their labor and digesting a healthy dose of newspaper and media praise. Thatâ€™s when trouble usually comes to visit.
I examined a number of different next game situations involving this team that just pulled off the home upset win. There were a couple of areas that returned a decent profit and one that really brought home the bacon. Take a look at the best scenario that I discovered:
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any conference road underdog priced at +14 or more provided they won straight up as a conference home dog in their last game.
28 Year ATS Record = 73-48 ATS for 60.3 percent!
This Weekâ€™s Play = CALIFORNIA (Play against UCLA off its upset win)
This makes perfect sense. After pulling off the emotional home win, our weary traveler falls flat on its face in a battle that theyâ€™re not supposed to win. The fact that this team is battling conference opponents in back-to-back weeks is important too. Conference wins are huge and, off a straight up underdog win against an annual foe, the likelihood of this same team catching a better conference member by surprise is slim to none.
There were a couple of situations that improved this college system significantly. In the first seven games of the season, teams in this angle were only 24-25 ATS. The fatigue of a grueling schedule hasnâ€™t set in yet and there wasnâ€™t much money to be had on our part in this set. However, at game eight or later, this system really starts to pop. At this stage of the season, this technical gem dips to a woeful 24-48 ATS!
If we take out the really bad teams in this set, those that won on six or fewer games out of their last 22, this eliminates a 16-18 ATS from the system and brings it to a shocking 8-30 ATS. Teams that won at least seven (or more) of their last 22 will get the respect needed from the linemaker. Those that havenâ€™t will tend to be grabbing more points than they should and that would work against us here.
There is one team locked in this â€œplay againstâ€쳌 situation on Saturday â€“ UCLA. The Bruins upset Stanford at home and now must make the trek to Berkeley to tackle the Golden Bears. Rest assured, UCLA is going to be in trouble here. Good luck with California this weekend.