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Gm 3 Chalk That Doesn't Walk

   by Tom Stryker - 09/11/2008

Here it is game three of the regular season and you got out of the gate like gangbusters. In your first two battles, you couldn’t have played any better en route to a pair of straight up wins and covers priced as a favorite. Team confidence is high, the investors that backed you are fat and things are looking up.

Momentum is usually a great handicapping tool in any sport. However, at this stage of the college football season, a quick 2-0 SU and ATS start can be a bad thing. The general public has just watched you post a pair of impressive SU and ATS victories (as chalk) and they’ll be looking to “play onâ€쳌 you the next time out. Unfortunately, the linemaker in Las Vegas has made his adjustments and these 2-0 SU and ATS teams are most likely overpriced. The following college football system proves my point.

Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any game three favorite provided they won and covered their first two games priced as a favorite.

28 Year ATS Record = 71-45-2 ATS for 61.2 percent.


To be honest with you, this system makes perfect sense. College football is an emotional game and asking a team to continually win and cover as a favorite is a tall order. We all know that competition at this level has become much better across the board over the years and laying lumber on a weekly basis can get you into trouble.

There is one special tightener to this situation that really makes it pop. If our “play againstâ€쳌 piece of chalk is matched up against an opponent that enters off a blowout win of 11 points or more, this system improves to a tremendous 29-12-2 ATS for 70.7 percent. Of those four games listed above, only one team applies: PURDUE. The Boilermakers enter off a 42-10 home win over Northern Colorado and catch the Ducks off a pair of SU and ATS favorite wins over Washington and Utah State.

On Sunday night, Oregon opened up as a five-point favorite at West Lafayette and this number has been pushed to eight at press time. The Ducks are definitely inflated and are locked into this reliable “play againstâ€쳌 situation. Good luck with Purdue and be sure to check back next week for another insightful handicapping article. TS

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