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Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
by Tom Stryker - 09/03/2008
There's nothing worse than getting embarrassed in your season opener. After putting in all the blood, sweat and tears in August, laying an egg in the first game of the season really hurts.
Maybe it was a lack of preparation. Or, like Clemson last week, one team was simply outcoached. Regardless of the situation, the fact remains that you are resting at 0-1 SU and know that a second blemish would be the absolute worst case scenario.
When it comes to handicapping college football, it is imperative that you isolate those teams that take the field "with a definite reason to play". Motivation is huge at this level and good 'cappers know when to use it to their advantage. This is one time when a little extra energy goes a long way. Take a look.
Since 1980, PLAY ON any game two college football favorite priced at -9' or more provided they lost straight up as a favorite of -7 or more in their season opener.
28 Year ATS Record = 14-5 ATS for 73.6 percent.
This Week's Play = PITTSBURGH
As you can see, those game two teams that got rocked in game one as a touchdown favorite or more bounce back nicely when favored by -9' or more in their next contest. Amazingly, the 19 teams in that set all won the game too by an average of 26.6 points per game!
There is one tightener to this Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde system that really makes it pop. With out 14-5 ATS record in hand, we can improve this situation to a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS for 100 percent provided our "play on" team is matched up against an opponent that is NOT off a straight up loss. (That means our "play against" side enters off a straight up win or this is their season opener.) Please note: Those seven wins have come by an average of 33.0 points per game!
Last Saturday, Pittsburgh jumped out to an early lead against Bowling Green but couldn't close. The Falcons upset the Panthers 27-17. Off that loss and with the support of this rare system in play, Dave Wannstedt will have his troops ready to play. Good luck with Pittsburgh on Saturday!