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NBA Last Home Game Angle
by Tom Stryker - 04/13/2008
Regardless of the sport, "last home game" situations can be a profitable venture. Not only are the fans charged up for this special contest but the players are on an emotional high too.
Since the NBA endures such a long season (82 games), there is a tendency for some handicapper's to disregard this technical situation. I'm not one of them. A team's 41st home game does carry a level of importance. If you don't believe me, take a look at some of the power I've uncovered.
Dating back to 1990 and excluding the strike year of 1998-99, NBA home teams running in their 41st and final home game are just 203-200-6 ATS. Obviously, an angle that's three games over the .500 mark doesn't leave too much profit especially when there are 403 games to consider. However, after digging a little deeper, I found four different parameters that all work nicely and lead us to the profit land. Take a look.
No. 1 - Our play on host owns a won/loss percentage of .675 or better.
Record - 22-41 ATS
Note: NBA elite teams are most likely resting players in this situation (with the Playoffs on the way) and clearing the bench. That's the reason why Class A teams have historically struggled in this last home game setting. Potential Plays: Minnesota, LA Clippers and Sacramento on 4/15 and New Jersey, Utah and the LA Clippers on 4/16.)
No. 2 - The road team enters with a won/loss percentage of .670 or better.
Record - 47-29 ATS
Note: In an "LHG" setting, emotions run much higher when our host is matched up against one of pro basketball's best. There's nothing sweeter than sending the fans home for the final time with the memory of a win over a solid team. (Potential Plays: New York, Utah and Sacramento on 4/14 and Cleveland and Dallas on 4/16.) Of course, the flip side of this parameter is profitable too. If our LHG host is facing a team with a won/loss percentage of .260 or worse, this situation crashes to an ugly 10-25 ATS. How excited is a team going to be in an LHG setting when they're battling a team that their bench could probably beat! (Potential Plays: Against Toronto on 4/14 and Golden State on 4/16)
No. 3 - The host enters off a straight up win off 11 points or more.
Record - 53-29 ATS
Momentum is a valuable tool especially when handicapping basketball. A team that checks into their final home game of the season off a blowout victory have displayed a tendency to play well again the next time out. This situation works even if our host arrives off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. In this set, our LHG side is a respectable 38-22 ATS!
No. 4. - Our play on host took a nose dive their last time out and fell by 15 points or more and is currently matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win.
Record - 19-10 ATS
No one wants to close our their home schedule with a blemish. Motivated by a blowout loss in their last battle, LHG sides kick their game up a notch coming off a crushing loss of 15 points or more and take care of business!
Last home game sets are in full force beginning on Monday, April 14th so be sure to review these four awesome angles and use them when they pop! I'll be back later in the week with an inside look at Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs. Thank you and best of luck this week, Tom Stryker.