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NCAA Tourney Round 1 Information

   by Tom Stryker - 03/19/2008

Without question, the NCAA Tournament is the best sporting event in the nation. If you’re not a fan of March Madness, then something is seriously wrong! College basketball’s National Championship is at stake and 65 teams know that the first to six wins will walk away with the prize.

College coaches break this tournament down into two-game affairs. Win the first two and then move on to the Sweet 16. Win the next two and then skip to the Final Four. Win those two and you’re the National Champion. As a handicapper, I’ve taken a similar approach and broken down the tournament and looked at each round individually. My discoveries have been profitable and well worth the time invested.

Below you’ll find an inside look at the first round of the NCAA Tournament and the breakdown of how the seeded teams perform against each other. These games tip off on Thursday and Friday, March 20th and 21st.

There are also four very solid Round 1 Tournament Situations that are in play as well. Best of luck in the first round of the NCAA Tournament men.

Please note: All records below are from the 1990-91 season unless noted.

NCAA TOURNAMENT SEED INFORMATION
#1 SEED vs #16 SEED = 68-0 SU and 37-30-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #1 seed is off a SU and ATS win – 20-12 ATS – Play ON Kansas and Memphis.
2. If #1 seed has a won/loss percentage ≥.833 and <.933 – 29-15-1 ATS – Play ON Kansas and UCLA (21-6 ATS if #1 seed of BB SU wins – Jayhawks and Bruins apply.)

#2 SEED vs #15 SEED = 64-4 SU and 29-37-2 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #2 seed covered by 10 points or more last – 5-8-1 ATS – Play AGAINST No Plays This Year.
2. If #2 seed owns a won/loss percentage ≥ .865 – 5-10-1 ATS – Play AGAINST Tennessee.
3. If #2 seed is favored by 18 or more – 16-25-1 ATS – Play AGAINST Duke and Tennessee.

#3 SEED vs #14 SEED = 59-9 SU and 34-33-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #3 seed is off a SU loss as a favorite – 18-7-1 ATS – Play ON Xavier and Louisville (13-1-1 ATS if #3 seed lost to the line by 10 points or more last – Xavier and Louisville BOTH apply).
2. If #3 seed enters off back-to-back SU wins – 4-14 ATS (Since ’93) – Play AGAINST Wisconsin.

#4 SEED vs #13 SEED = 50-5-13 SU and 39-28-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #4 seed is a favorite of –9 or less – 25-12 ATS – Play ON Washington State and Vanderbilt.
2. If #4 seed is off a SU loss – 30-10-1 ATS (Since ’93) – Play ON (19-2 ATS if #4 seed is favored by -9 or less – Washington State and Vanderbilt BOTH apply).

#5 SEED vs #12 SEED = 46-22 SU and 35-33 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #5 seed owns a won/loss percentage ≤ .710 – 17-9 ATS – Play ON No Plays This Year.
2. If #5 seed is favored by -5’ or more – 22-14 ATS – Play ON Notre Dame, Michigan State and Clemson.

#6 SEED vs #11 SEED = 49-19 SU and 39-28-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #6 seed enters off a SU loss of 13 points or more – 10-3 ATS – Play ON Oklahoma.

#7 SEED vs #10 SEED – 39-29 SU and 38-29-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #7 seed is an underdog – 12-6-1 ATS – Play ON Gonzaga.
2. If #7 seed owns a won/loss percentage ≥ .680 – 22-10-1 ATS – Play ON West Virginia, Gonzaga, Miami FL and Butler.

#8 SEED vs #9 SEED = 31-37 SU and 31-36-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #8 seed is off back-to-back SU wins – 3-6 ATS – Play AGAINST UNLV.

NCAA TOURNAMENT SUPER SITUATIONS
1. #10 seeds or higher that are favored in the first round of the NCAA Tournament are a wallet breaking 9-17-1 ATS. Play AGAINST Davidson.
2. NCAA Tournament 1st Round teams priced as a favorite of –5 to an underdog with a won/loss percentage of ≤.667 are a shocking 16-33-2 ATS if they’re entering the tourney off back-to-back ATS wins. Play AGAINST Georgia, Temple, San Diego and Davidson. (Make that 6-24-1 ATS if their opponent checks in off a SU loss – Georgia, Temple, San Diego and Davidson ALL apply).
3. NCAA Tournament 1st Round teams entering off back-to-back 15 point (or more) SU wins are a woeful 11-19 ATS. Play AGAINST Fullerton State, Memphis and Butler.
4. Favorites of -14.5 or less in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tournament are a woeful 7-22 ATS provided they enter off a 3-0 SU and ATS run (or better). Play AGAINST Pittsburgh, Drake and Butler. (Make that 0-8 ATS if our 1st Round favorite won by 17 points or more last – Drake).

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