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NBA Late Season Money Maker
by Tom Stryker - 02/22/2008
The NBA season is a grind. Over the course of a six month period, professional athletes are required to play 82 games. It doesn't matter that these men are fine tuned machines. The wear and tear on the body has to take its toll at some point. With that thinking in mind, I turned to my NBA database to see if I could apply that logic to a technical situation that could make us all some money. Here's what I discovered.
I decided to take a look at regular season home teams from game 60 out. Since I felt that fatigue would be a factor, I brought my home team in without rest off a game the previous night. Right off the bat this produced a 350-414 ATS record. There's a little bit of profit there and I was on the right track.
By adjusting the won/loss percentages of both the "play on" host and the foe, I was able to tighten up this Late Season Money-Maker nicely. If our home team carries a won/loss percentage less than .715 and is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .400, this system zips to a woeful 84-127 ATS! By eliminating the NBA's elite in their own backyard and bringing in one of the league's worst, this situation improved considerably.
One parameter I use quite often in the NBA to tighten up my systems is to look at a team coming off an embarrassing blowout loss. In this specific situation, my NBA Late Season Money-Maker crashed to an eye-popping 57-108 ATS provided our host was NOT off a straight up loss of 15 points or more. Teams coming off a whipping like that have a tendency to bounce back. We eliminated a 27-19 ATS record from this set by removing them here.
There is one final parameter I used that really made this system pop. If our sub. 400 foe arrives off a SU and ATS loss, this situation hits rock bottom and dips to a nasty 23-53 ATS. (Please note: Since the 1996 season, this tightener is on a stunning 10-38 ATS run!) At this time of the year, there is no motivation for a host to unload on one of the NBA's worst checking in without momentum. Tack on the fact that our home team is already tired and you get a sense that the host does what it has to do to simply win the ball game and move on.
Game 60 is approaching rapidly in the league and this situation will begin to pop soon. Good luck with my NBA Late Season Money-Maker and be sure to check back next Friday for a quick look at some great Conference Tournament situations! TS