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Super Bowl ATS History
by Team Del Genio - 02/01/2008
When wagering on the Super Bowl, you can’t take the approach that this is “just another football game.â€쳌 It is anything but. First off, you must understand that this is the most wagered on game of the year, in any sport, by far. Line shopping isn’t really an option. The extra week off is a factor. So too is the intense national media scrutiny. Big game experience, or lack of it, matters. Let’s take a look at what past Super Bowl results and how they apply to the Patriots vs. the Giants.
New England is the 14th double-digit favorite in Super Bowl history. Interestingly, the NFL was a double-digit fave in each of the first four Super Bowls. During their run of dominance during the mid-late nineties, the NFC was favored by ten or more points five straight times. The last time we saw a double-digit favorite in the Super Bowl was St. Louis (-14) back in 2002. They, of course, lost to outright to New England.
The Rams were not alone. The Joe Namath-led Jets beat the Colts, 16-7, as 18-point dogs back in Super Bowl III. One year later, the Chiefs stunned the Vikings, 23-7, as 12-point dogs. The only other double-digit dog to win outright was Denver (+11.5) in Super Bowl 32.
Overall, favorites of ten or more are 7-5-1 ATS in Super Bowl history. That includes a recent 0-3-1 pointspread run. New England is just the second AFC team to lay double-digits (Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 19 – they covered).
The NFC dominated Super Bowls during the 80’s and 90’s to the tune of a 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS run. Now, it’s the AFC that’s dominating, as they are currently on an 8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS run dating back to 1997.
The SU winner is 33-5-3 ATS all-time in Super Bowls, but just 2-2 ATS the last four. Both of those ATS losses were by New England!
The team with the higher seeding is an abysmal 1-9-2 ATS the last 12 Super Bowls.
The Under has come in the last three Super Bowls, but is just 8-14-1 overall.
The current number for Super Bowl XLII (54.5) is the highest in history! The previous high was 54 set in Super Bowl XXIX when the 49ers crushed the Chargers 49-26. However, of the six Super Bowls with a posted total of 50 or higher, it’s been a 3-3 split.
Remember, history can be a useful tool, but doesn’t necessarily always provide the answer. Be sure to get my NFL Game of the Year on Super Bowl 42 at the Guaranteed Picks Page. |
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