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Super Bowl ATS History
by Team Del Genio - 02/01/2008
When wagering on the Super Bowl, you canâ€™t take the approach that this is â€œjust another football game.â€쳌 It is anything but. First off, you must understand that this is the most wagered on game of the year, in any sport, by far. Line shopping isnâ€™t really an option. The extra week off is a factor. So too is the intense national media scrutiny. Big game experience, or lack of it, matters. Letâ€™s take a look at what past Super Bowl results and how they apply to the Patriots vs. the Giants.
New England is the 14th double-digit favorite in Super Bowl history. Interestingly, the NFL was a double-digit fave in each of the first four Super Bowls. During their run of dominance during the mid-late nineties, the NFC was favored by ten or more points five straight times. The last time we saw a double-digit favorite in the Super Bowl was St. Louis (-14) back in 2002. They, of course, lost to outright to New England.
The Rams were not alone. The Joe Namath-led Jets beat the Colts, 16-7, as 18-point dogs back in Super Bowl III. One year later, the Chiefs stunned the Vikings, 23-7, as 12-point dogs. The only other double-digit dog to win outright was Denver (+11.5) in Super Bowl 32.
Overall, favorites of ten or more are 7-5-1 ATS in Super Bowl history. That includes a recent 0-3-1 pointspread run. New England is just the second AFC team to lay double-digits (Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 19 â€“ they covered).
The NFC dominated Super Bowls during the 80â€™s and 90â€™s to the tune of a 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS run. Now, itâ€™s the AFC thatâ€™s dominating, as they are currently on an 8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS run dating back to 1997.
The SU winner is 33-5-3 ATS all-time in Super Bowls, but just 2-2 ATS the last four. Both of those ATS losses were by New England!
The team with the higher seeding is an abysmal 1-9-2 ATS the last 12 Super Bowls.
The Under has come in the last three Super Bowls, but is just 8-14-1 overall.
The current number for Super Bowl XLII (54.5) is the highest in history! The previous high was 54 set in Super Bowl XXIX when the 49ers crushed the Chargers 49-26. However, of the six Super Bowls with a posted total of 50 or higher, itâ€™s been a 3-3 split.
Remember, history can be a useful tool, but doesnâ€™t necessarily always provide the answer. Be sure to get my NFL Game of the Year on Super Bowl 42 at the Guaranteed Picks Page.