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NFL Playoff Super System
by Tom Stryker - 01/12/2008
In the â€œElite Eightâ€쳌 stage of the NFL Playoffs, the history book shows that the home team has performed very well. According to my database, hosts at this stage of the game are a respectable 81-27 SU and 59-46-3 ATS. Even though I think there are a couple of road teams that have a very good shot at pulling off an upset this weekend, respect must be given to this profitable technical situation.
Last year, home teams posted a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS record in this round. On January 13th, 2006 Indianapolis defeated Baltimore 15-6 and New Orleans topped Philadelphia 27-24. Then, on Sunday, January 14th, New England stormed into San Diego and pulled off the amazing 24-21 upset and Chicago slipped past Seattle in the Windy City 27-24.
There will be some home teams that cover this weekend. You know that. The question at hand is which ones will it be? To answer that, I turned to my database to try and find which hosts deserved a closer look and more of our money.
On thing you might not want to do is back a home team in the Divisional Round coming off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. According to my NFL database, those hosts owned a dismal 21-26-2 ATS record. That eliminates Green Bay from the mix. From there, home dogs or favorites of -9â€™ or less are still extremely profitable carrying a 39-8 SU and 32-14-1 ATS record. Only two of the remaining three home teams apply to this tightener: Indianapolis and Dallas.
If we eliminate all of the power road teams from that 32-14-1 ATS tightener, the ones that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .650, home teams in this situation explode to a sensational 22-6 ATS for 78.5 percent. There is only one host locked into this sweet set this weekend: Dallas. With a week of rest and matched up against a weaker opponent, the Cowboys are obviously in a great spot.
Good luck with Dallas this weekend and be sure to check back next week when I take a look at the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs! TS