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Win Totals -- How Did Each NFL Team Fare?
by Team Del Genio - 01/05/2008
One thing I always make a habit of doing upon the completion of each NFL Regular Season is go back and compare how each team’s won/loss record measures up against its projected win total prior to the year. It’s pretty fun to go back and laugh at some of the teams the books and the public had tabbed as “contenders,â€쳌 while at the same time marveling at those who came out of nowhere to make a big pile of cash for their backers.
Go through the list and see how many times you kick yourself and say “Damnit! Why didn’t I take that?â€쳌 It’s pretty fun, or depressing, depending on your point of view. Of course, saying you knew New England would run the table in August is a lot different than saying the same in December.
Of the 32 teams, eight had a deviation of four or more from their projected win total. Interestingly, three came out of the AFC East. How badly do you wish you could build a time machine, go back to the summertime, and take New England ‘Over 11.5’? Two of the Pats division rivals did not fare nearly as well, as the Jets (4 wins) finished four games under their win total (8) and the Dolphins (1 win), not surprisingly, were the league’s biggest disappointment finishing an astonishing six wins fewer than their projected total (7).
Despite completing the first-ever 16-0 regular season, New England was not the team that exceeded its future by the greatest margin. That honor would go to the NFC’s Green Bay Packers (13), who were 5.5 games better than what Vegas and the offshore books were expecting.
Both Dallas (13 wins) and Cleveland (10) exceeded expectations by four games. Too bad for the Browns that they were just the fourth 10-win team in history to fail to make the postseason since 1990 (when playoff format was last expanded).
Who were the big losers besides the Dolphins? St. Louis (3 wins) was next, as they were expected to finish .500 (-5). Then came the aforementioned Jets and the Ravens (5 wins), both of whom finished with four wins fewer than their future.
Team
Future
Wins
The Diff
Green Bay
7.5
13
+5.5
New England
11.5
16
+4.5
Dallas
9
13
+4
Cleveland
6
10
+4
Tennessee
7
10
+3
Indianapolis
10.5
13
+2.5
Tampa Bay
7
9
+2
Jacksonville
9
11
+2
NY Giants
8
10
+2
Houston
6.5
8
+1.5
Washington
7.5
9
+1.5
Pittsburgh
9
10
+1
Minnesota
7
8
+1
Seattle
9
10
+1
Arizona
7
8
+1
Buffalo
6.5
7
+.5
San Diego
10.5
11
+.5
Detroit
6.5
7
+.5
Oakland
5
4
-1
Philadelphia
9
8
-1
Atlanta
5.5
4
-1.5
Cincinnati
9
7
-2
Carolina
9
7
-2
Denver
9.5
7
-2.5
New Orleans
9.5
7
-2.5
Chicago
10
7
-3
San Francisco
8
5
-3
Kansas City
7.5
4
-3.5
NY Jets
8
4
-4
Baltimore
9
5
-4
St. Louis
8
3
-5
Miami
7
1
-6 |
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