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Line Movers and Shakers in the NFL

   by ASA - 11/10/2007

This week’s installment of my Line Movers and Shakers article features another big showdown in the AFC, a huge NFC East clash and a potential blowout in the South. Make your early week investments and enjoy the profits.

Indianapolis at San Diego
Open – Indianapolis (-3)

This AFC battle promises to see a lot of action as the Sunday night game. And most of that action will be on Indianapolis. The Colts may have lost to the Patriots last week but they also gained the respect of bettors everywhere in giving New England its first ATS loss of the season. No other team had finished within 17 points of the Patriots coming into the game. Indy went into the fourth quarter with a 10-point lead before eventually losing by four. The public took notice and will bet accordingly in this one.

Helping the cause will be San Diego’s collapse last week against Minnesota. The Chargers were riding a three-game winning streak and a win over the Vikings would have resulted in a much different public perception coming into this week. Getting embarrassed by Adrian Peterson and the Vikings has completely eliminated any of the goodwill San Diego earned from bettors following its three-game winning streak.

If you think the Colts can rebound at San Diego from their first loss of the season, place your bet now while the line has its best value. If you believe Indy could potentially be looking at a losing streak, wait until closer to game time as this line will rise as the week progresses.

Dallas at New York Giants
Open – Dallas (-1)

The public doesn’t easily forget and it surely hasn’t forgotten the pasting Dallas put on New York in the season opener. The Cowboys put up 45 points and 478 yards of total offense on the Giants defense in that game. That game will be fresh in bettors’ minds when wagering on this meeting.

Not only does the public not forget losses nine weeks ago, it also doesn’t forget losses from a week ago. The last memory the public has of the Cowboys is the 38-17 road whipping of Philadelphia on national television their last time out. The last memory bettors have of the Giants is an ugly 13-10 win over a winless Miami team. There’s a big difference there. The public will take into account both New York’s season-opening loss to Dallas and its narrow win over a bad Miami team.

The Cowboys are still very much “American’s Team.â€쳌 That status will reflect on the line movement in this NFC East battle. If you think Dallas can repeat its Week 1 performance, lay your money now. If you believe the Giants will get their revenge, place your bet closer to game time to get the best value.

St. Louis at New Orleans
Open – New Orleans (-10.5)

It may have taken awhile, but the Saints have finally regained the confidence of the public. Following an 0-4 start, New Orleans has ripped off four straight convincing wins to climb back to .500 and out of the public’s doghouse. Bettors are definitely starting to take notice as the Saints have covered three of those four wins and have won by an average of 13.8 points per game.

The public’s increasing confidence in New Orleans in this game isn’t entirely because of how the Saints have played. Some of that has to do with St. Louis’ 0-8 (1-7 ATS) record. The Rams are among the NFL’s worst teams on both sides of the ball and bettors have definitely noticed. Add that to the fact that New Orleans has regained the offensive magic that led to its Cinderella run last year and this game looks like a huge mismatch on paper.

This line has already started its ascent and will continue to climb throughout the week. If you think the Saints will extend their winning streak to five straight, and do so in a big way, take them now while the line is low. If you believe St. Louis can take this game down to the final whistle, don’t place your bet until closer to kickoff.


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