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Game 5 and Going South
by Tom Stryker - 09/28/2007
There are so many pivotal games during the course of a college football season - the opener, the first conference test, a major revenge war and even the final battle to name a few. Teams hit these milestones and, depending on whether they are able to pick up the "W" or post an "L", it can make or break their season.
This week's College System focuses on those teams at game five of the regular season carrying a .500 record. At 2-2 straight up, this specific contest becomes extremely important. A win pushes this team over the plateau of mediocrity and on to bigger and better things. Unfortunately, a blemish sends this team further down the ladder of success and can often lead to trouble. Here's what I discovered.
Since 1980, game five college home underdogs sporting a 2-2 SU record are a surprising 25-41-2 ATS. The results of this college system caught me by surprise a little bit. I fully expected a home dog at game five that's carrying a .500 record to rise to the occasion and take care of business. I couldn't have been more wrong. In fact, this technical situation gets worse if our home pup is catching +10 or more. Hosts in this tightener are a shocking 10-23-1 ATS! This week there are two teams locked into this "play against" set: Northwestern and Washington.
By adding a trio of specific parameters, we can take a 9-9 ATS record out of the general system. If our home dog is priced at +15' or more, running without rest and is matched up against an opponent this is not off a blowout victory of 41 points or more, this awesome system crashes to a stunning 1-14-1 ATS! Yes, the Wildcats and Huskies apply!
Michigan and USC are both cranking their games up a notch and they'll be worth a look on foreign soil this Saturday. Good luck with the Wolverines and Trojans and be sure to check back next week for another powerful technical situation that has historically cranked out profits!