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College Football Game 2 Blowout Encore
by Tom Stryker - 09/10/2007
Momentum. Remember that word when you're handicapping college football. Confidence-building wins can do great things for the morale and emotion of a team. Early in the season, successful programs feed off the electric energy that victories provide. Teams that get out of the gate quickly have shown a tendency to stay ahead of the pack and keep on winning. That fact is proven in the "Game 2 Blowout Encore" situation I'm about to reveal. Here's what you want to do:
PLAY ON any game two college underdog or favorite of -10 or less provided they're coming off a 35-point or more straight up victory in their season opener.
Since 1980, that simple system has produced 79 winners out of 136 occurrences for a profitable 58.0 percent. This weekend, there are five teams locked into that "play on" situation: Cincinnati, Nebraska, Alabama, Boise State and Indiana.
If you break that core system down, you'll find that it's pretty basic. All we're really doing is taking a fairly priced team coming off a confidence-building victory. By eliminating double-digit favorites from this group we immediately remove those potential plays that would most likely come overpriced.
If you believe that confidence leads to success, then you'll agree with the next parameter that tightens up this system beautifully. If our game two "play on" team enters off a blowout win of 35 points or more and they smashed the Las Vegas pointspread by 10 or more, this powerful system explodes to a sparkling 33-16 ATS for 67.3 percent! Only Nebraska fits this sweet tightener. Not only is our "play on" team off an impressive straight up win but they also shredded the Las Vegas line the professionals posted on them last week! It's one thing to beat your opponent. It's another when you embarrass the oddsmaker in the process! In my 24 years of sports handicapping, line-differentials have played a big part in making average systems great. That's exactly what happened here.
With my 33-16 ATS system in hand, I kicked my college football database up a notch to see if I could find anything else to make it stronger. There was one situation that worked nicely. If our "play on" team won eight or more games last year, this system zipped to a sensational 20-6 ATS for 76.9 percent. The Cornhuskers apply to this tightener too. If a team wins eight-plus games in a season, there's a pretty good chance they'll be decent the following year. This special tightener gives us the "cream of the crop" - those traditional programs that reload and consistently win.
Last weekend, Nebraska drilled Nevada 52-10 and beat the pointspread by three touchdowns. The Cornhuskers fit my Game 2 Blowout Encore system and all the tighteners that apply. Good luck with the Big Red on Saturday! Be sure to check back next Friday for an inside look at a powerful system. Good luck this week, TS.