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NBA Finals Technical Preview
by Tom Stryker - 06/02/2007
San Antonio has already punched its ticket to the NBA Finals. The Spurs will face the survivor of the Eastern Conference war between Cleveland and Detroit. Regardless of San Antonio's opponent, this year's final playoff series will be a dandy.
If Spurs head coach Greg Popovich had his choice, he would much rather face an aging Pistons bunch instead of a young group of Cavaliers. San Antonio dropped both games against Cleveland this season and that is reason enough for the Spurs to be concerned. In the series versus Detroit, Tim Duncan and the crew walked away with a pair of straight up wins by finals of 90-81 and 90-89.
In the first three stages of the NBA Playoffs, I broke down each round by game to see if there was a technical advantage. Here's what my powerful database kicked out for the Finals. Take a look.
In the NBA Finals, home teams are a surprising 37-51-2 ATS and have recorded 52 unders - 37 overs and 1 tie. Here are the results by game numbers:
Game One - Home teams are 8-8 ATS and have recorded 10 unders and 6 overs.
Game Two - Home teams are 6-9-1 ATS and have recorded 9 unders and 6 overs with 1 tie.
Game Three - Home teams are 6-9-1 ATS and have recorded 9 overs and 7 unders.
Game Four - Home teams are 8-8 ATS and have recorded 9 unders and 7 overs.
Game Five - Home teams are 5-9 ATS and have recorded 7 unders and 7 overs.
Game Six - Home teams are 2-8 ATS and have recorded 8 unders and 2 overs.
Game Seven - Home teams are 2-0 ATS and have recorded 2 overs and 0 unders.
Overall, in the NBA Finals, there were four specific technical situations that provided plenty of profit.
No. 1 - Home teams matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .710 are a dismal 17-33-1 ATS.
No. 2 - Home teams battling a foe that enters off a SU/ATS loss are a soft 11-22 ATS.
No. 3 - Home teams that beat the pointspread by more than 11 points last are a surprising 4-13 ATS.
No. 4 - Home teams facing an opponent that arrives off back-to-back straight up losses are a pitiful 2-7 ATS.
Actually, aside from that NBA Finals information, San Antonio as a team offers plenty of money-making opportunities. For example, since the 1996 playoffs, the Spurs are a solid 55-21 SU and 46-30 ATS as a playoff host including a tremendous 46-11 SU and 40-17 ATS in this set matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .690.
Also, as a playoff host coming off exactly one straight up loss, San Antonio owns a marvelous 11-3 SU and ATS record. Last but not least, the Spurs are a blistering 27-13 ATS at home in postseason action matched up against a team that enters off a straight up victory.
In the NBA Finals, San Antonio owns a 12-6 SU and ATS record (8-1 ATS if its opponent checks in off a straight up win) and Pop's troops are going to be tough to beat!
The final series begins at the Alamodome on Thursday, June 7th. Be sure to review this article before and after each game in the NBA Finals. Your pocketbook will be thanking you later. Best of luck always, Tom.