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by ASA - 04/01/2007
** Watch out for the Devil Rays! Well, we are not going overboard and predicting a great season here, however based on past results, you might be able to get some nice value with the Rays are at home. In 2006, Tampa was 41-40 at home +$1019 on the money line. Thus, just one game over .500 but a full 10 games over when you consider the money. Not bad for a team that was 61-101 overall. This isnâ€™t a one year thing either. In 2005, despite winning just 67 games overall, this team was 40-41 at home, +$918. In 2004 at home the Devil Rays were 41-39, +$619. Thus, the last three years, contrary to their overall winning percentage of 40% their last three years, this team has a winning record at home.
** On the exact opposite end of the spectrum we have the NY Yankees. Our advice is to pick and choose your spots with the Bronx Bombers but donâ€™t get caught up in playing on this team regularly. Why? Because they are a public team, they are way overvalued. The last eight seasons, NY has an overall record of 777-516 (+261 overall games). If you would have played them for $100 on the money line each of those 1,293 games, you would have lost $7,147. Thus, while they were +261 games overall, they were minus nearly 71 games on the money line. When should you consider playing on this team? When they are underdogs. It doesnâ€™t happen very often (usually anywhere from 10-25 times a year) but when the Yankees are an underdog, they make people money. They have had a positive ROI the last six straight years as a dog. While you wonâ€™t get them in that role too often, based on the last six seasons it might be a good idea to simply play them whenever that situation pops up.
** Oakland LOVES the sunshine. What do we mean by this? For whatever reason, the Aâ€™s have excelled in day games. In fact the last time this team had a losing record and had a negative ROI (return on investment) during day games was back in 1998. Looking back on the last four seasons, Oaklandâ€™s record during the day is 156-95 (62%) while their record at night is 217-192 (53%). During that four year stint this team has had a positive ROI each year during their day games and a negative ROI each year during their night games. We obviously donâ€™t have an answer for this situation, it simply is what it is.
** ASAâ€™s pick for most consistently BAD road team. The Colorado Rockies. Get this team away from hitter friendly Coors Field and forget about it. That last winning season this team had away from home was back in 1997. Letâ€™s quickly focus in on the last five seasons for the Rockies. Over that time, this team finished 30th in team batting average on the road three times and 28th twice (out of 30 teams). The most wins theyâ€™ve had on the road in that five year span was actually last year with 32 (49 losses). Their other road win totals the last five years were 26, 25, 30 & 27. Their overall road record over the last five seasons is 140-265. If you would have played $100 on each of those road games you would have lost a grand total of $6,780. Obviously our advice would be to keep your distance from the Rockies when they venture outside of Denver.
** Which MLB team has tabbed an underdog of +200 or greater the most over the last three seasons. Answer: The Kansas City Royals. They have been a +200 or greater dog a whopping 126 times the last three seasons. That means they were at least a 2/1 puppy once every four games they have played the last three years. Last season alone they were +200 or more 63 times (almost 40% of their games). Their overall record the last three seasons in that situation is 43-83. As poor as that record may seem, if you played all 126 of those games you would have been +14.4 net stars.