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Erase This Bad Chalk
by Tom Stryker - 02/03/2007
A few weeks ago, I wrote an NBA article telling you about how good teams have a tendency to bounce back after a bad performance. When I applied a similar theory to the college ranks, I expected profitable results. Well, I got some great numbers but was extremely surprised with my discovery. Let's take a look at a college basketball system that I call "Erase This Bad Chalk."
The concept for this technical situation is really quite simple. There are so many teams that hit the road favored and lay an egg. I wanted to see how these teams responded in a typical bounce-back situation especially when they're at home. Here's what I found:
Play AGAINST any college basketball home favorite of -7 or more provided they lost straight up priced as a road favorite of -7 or more last.
Record Since 1990 - 77-41-2 ATS for 65.2 percent
The knee-jerk reaction would be to take this piece of home chalk coming off an embarrassing road loss. But, as you can see from the results, that's exactly what you DON'T want to do! There are a few parameters that work within this system to really make it pop.
If our host is an elite team and carries a won/loss percentage of .700 or better, this situation for our road team improves to a blistering 56-24 ATS for 70.0 percent. That goes against the norm too. One would immediately think that a good college basketball team would respond after a crushing loss but they don't! They lay another egg!
Momentum plays a big part in college basketball handicapping and we can make this system even better if our guest enters off a straight up win of four points or more. In this set, the record of this angle tightens up to a magnificent 32-5 ATS for 86.4 percent! Now that is making money gentlemen!
There is one final parameter that I can add to this system that will make it hit perfection. With our 32-5 ATS in hand, this technical situation zips to a SPOTLESS 21-0-1 ATS for 100% provided our home team is at game 17 of the season or later. By eliminating the early non-conference action and placing our host in competitive conference play we've tightened this system up beautifully and got a jaw-dropping result.
Based on Wednesday's results, there is one potential play on Saturday that would fit the general 77-41-2 ATS situation. Provided Xavier is favored by -7 or more against Charlotte, the Musketeers will be locked into this "play against" situation. Be sure to keep an eye on this technical system over the next few weeks. I guarantee you the 21-0-1 ATS system will pop shortly. Thank you and best of luck always, Tom.