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NFL Late Season Bad Encore
by Tom Stryker - 12/14/2006
The last three games of the NFL regular season can mean everything to those teams still in the playoff hunt and nothing to the others that have already been eliminated. Novice handicappers could experience a great deal of financial stress at this time of the year. The Las Vegas line is usually inflated on those squads still battling for playoff position. If you invest your hard earned dough on â€œbadâ€쳌 numbers in the pros, you can go broke in a hurry. Fortunately, my powerful NFL database has kept me in the â€œprofit zoneâ€쳌 in the month of December thanks to a handful of incredible late season systems.
This NFL Late Season Bad Encore system is just one that has made me a ton of money over the years. Letâ€™s take a look at this awesome technical situation:
Since 1984, NFL non-division road teams from game 14 to game 16 are a miserable 32-71-2 ATS provided they check in off a double-digit loss. At this time of the season, blowouts can weigh heavy on pro teams. Injuries and fatigue have settled in and â€œgetting upâ€쳌 for another four quarters of battle just isnâ€™t as easy at it was at the beginning of the season especially if youâ€™re forced to go on the road. Not being able to at least face a division foe takes away the motivational factor too. There are four teams locked into this nasty â€œplay againstâ€쳌 situation this weekend â€“ Dallas, Denver, Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and St. Louis.
There are a couple of great tighteners that really make this system pop. First, if our visitor is priced as an underdog or a favorite of -1 or less, this situation dips to a woeful 23-63-2 ATS. This late-season puppy has trouble recovering from that blowout loss (especially when matched up against a superior opponent) and loses its bark. This week, the Bucs, Jets and Rams both fit this tightener.
With our 23-63-2 ATS in hand, this system crashes to an ugly 4-29 ATS provided our guest is lined up across from a team that checks in off a straight up victory of seven points or more. The home team in this set is obviously riding an emotional high off that win of seven or more and carries that success over for another week versus this weary and wobbly traveler. On Sunday, the Bucs and Jets are locked into this nearly perfect â€œplay againstâ€쳌 situation.
Good luck with Chicago and Minnesota this weekend. In the next article, Iâ€™ll take a look at a nice Last Home Game system that has worked like a charm. Thanks and good luck, Tom.