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Season Finale Spread Beater
by Tom Stryker - 11/21/2006
Over the past few weeks, Iâ€™ve turned you on to a couple of last home game and last road game sets that have been profitable. This week, Iâ€™m going to continue on with my late-season assault and rip apart a last game scenario that has been money-in-the-bank over the years.
This college football system deals with teams playing their last regular season game. When I first started doing research on â€œlast game setsâ€쳌, I focused on teams coming off a string of straight up losses. My thought was that these schools would want to close on a high note with a victory in their last game. Honestly, I never found anything substantial with regards to straight up losses. But, I did uncover a very powerful situation that focused on teams entering off consecutive ATS blemishes. Take a look:
Play ON any college football team playing in its last regular season game provided they enter off three or more pointspread losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more straight up wins.
27 Year Record = 51-31 ATS for 62.1 percent!
Investing your hard earned money on a team that just lost to the pointspread three (or more) times in a row is tough. Itâ€™s even more difficult to open up your wallet on a team like this when they are matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum off two (or more) straight up wins. The knee-jerk reaction would be to fade the team that hasnâ€™t covered. However, thatâ€™s exactly what you donâ€™t want to do! On Saturday, there are two schools locked into this â€œplay onâ€쳌 situation: LSU and Missouri.
There are a couple of tighteners to this Season Final Spread Beater system that really make it pop. First, if our â€œplay onâ€쳌 team lost to the pointspread by six points or more last, this awesome situation skyrockets to a sizzling 39-12 ATS for 76.4 percent. Thanks to a trio of non-covers including a blowout loss to the pointspread the last time out we are fortunate to get tremendous line value here. Both Tigers apply to this tightener.
Finally, with out 39-12 ATS in hand, this technical situation improves to a nearly perfect 28-3 ATS provided our â€œplay onâ€쳌 team is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .400 and less than .900. By eliminating the really good teams and those that are well below average, we improve this Spread Beater system to a marvelous 28-3 ATS for 90.3 percent. Only one of the Tigers fits this special parameter â€“ Missouri!
Good luck with Mizzou on Saturday and be sure to check back next week for some late-season NFL systems that really work! Good luck, TS.