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Out of Gas
by Tom Stryker - 10/26/2006
Out of Gas
My powerful college football database never ceases to amaze me. Every time I think a situation will go one way, my database proves me wrong. This weekâ€™s College System of the Week is a case in point.
Here it is game nine of the season (or later) and youâ€™re resting at home off back-to-back straight up road losses. The linemaker has installed you as a short home underdog of +8.5 points or less. The knee-jerk reaction to this situation would be to side with the home pup assuming they would bounce back nicely off a pair or road blemishes. The fact that this host is an underdog too would serve as the proper motivation to keep the troops focused as well right? Wrong! Consider the following college system:
Play AGAINST any game nine or later home underdog of +8.5 or less provided they enter off back-to-back straight up road losses.
27 Year Record = 54-33 ATS for 62.0 percent!
Instead of rising up to the challenge, these short home dogs stick their tail between their legs and run into a retreat mode. Thatâ€™s not the outcome that I expected. With it being so late in the season, one would assume that these underachieving hosts would dig deep and pull off the upset. That just doesnâ€™t happen.
There are a couple of ways we can tighten this system up too. If our home team is matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum off a straight up win, this situation zips to a sterling 37-15 ATS for 71.1 percent. Obviously, our â€œplay againstâ€쳌 host is out of gas and unable to get the job done. It gets even worse if the team we are playing on enters with a won/loss percentage of .500 or less. If thatâ€™s the case, our 37-15 ATS explodes to a nearly perfect 15-2 ATS for 88.2 percent. Akron enters this contest with a 3-4 SU record and off a straight up home win over Miami Ohio. That means the Zips apply to both tighteners.
With a 2-6 SU record and off back-to-back straight up road losses at Kent and Eastern Michigan, Toledo is stuck in this play against situation. Good luck with Akron on Saturday and be sure to check back next week for another late-season money-maker!