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College System of the Week
by Tom Stryker - 10/07/2006
Itâ€™s Time To Put Up Or Shut Up
Weâ€™ve reached the half-way point of the college football season and for some teams itâ€™s time to put up or shut up. Iâ€™m not talking about any of those powerhouses ranked in the Top 25. This article takes a look at those teams that got out of the gate slowly and need to make a run.
Let me set the stage for this weekâ€™s College System of the Week. Itâ€™s currently game five of the regular season and youâ€™re sitting at home with a 1-3 SU record. If you lose this game, you drop to 1-4 SU and, with nothing but conference action on deck, a losing season is almost a certainty. But, if you win this contest, you stand one game under the .500 mark and respectability, and possibly a winning season, is right around the corner. Consider the following technical situation:
Play ON any game five home dog or home favorite of -7 or less provided they own a 1-3 SU record.
27 Year Record = 99-70 ATS for 58.5 percent.
As you can see, these 1-3 SU home teams when priced competitively have been close to a 60 percent play over the past 27 years. College football teams respond when properly motivated. At this stage of the season, and with their current losing record, these teams respond when placed in this â€œdo-or-dieâ€쳌 situation.
Like all of my college football systems, there are certain parameters that can be applied to improve the results. With my 99-70 ATS in hand, I discovered the following power tightener. If our host is matched up against an opponent that enters off an ATS win, this technical situation improves to a blistering 55-25 ATS for 68.7 percent! Now thatâ€™s some serious profit! On Saturday, there are two college football hosts locked into this play on system: East Carolina and Tulane!
There is one additional tightener that really makes this system pop. With our 55-25 ATS record in play, our home team explodes to a sensational 26-6 ATS for 81.3 percent provided they allowed 33 points or more in their last game. Not only is our 1-3 SU team on the brink but they also check in off a horrendous defensive performance. At home, they tighten up ship and really take care of business! On Saturday, Tulane is the only school that fits this awesome tightener.
Good luck with the Pirates and the Green Wave on Saturday!