Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Ness Notes: Friday, October 23

Friday, Oct 23, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary." World Series Game 3: The best-of-seven series is tied at one victory apiece and the Game 3 pitching matchup is a VERY good one. 26-year-old Walker Buehler takes the mound for the first time since he threw six scoreless innings in a 3-1 triumph against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday in Game 6 of the NLCS. That performance gives him 29 Ks over four postseason starts (19 innings) in 2020. The Dodgers are 3-1 in his starts and Walker owns a 1.89 ERA. I think Buehler is now considered LA's 'ace,' over Kershaw. With an excellent effort here, he could nail down that moniker. However, he faces one tough competitor in Tampa Bay's 36-year-old Charlie Morton. Morton's 3-0 in 2020's postseason, allowing 11 hits and two runs (one earned) over 15.2 innings for an 0.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 17-4 KW ratio. In fact, Morton has won all FIVE of his starts in the playoffs for Tampa Bay over the last two years while recording a minuscule 0.70 ERA. The Dodgers are favored (-150) and the over/under is 7 1/2.<p>Note: I enter Friday on an 8-2 run MLB run (+$6,615 at $100/unit) and Game 3 is my 10* MLB Game of the Year. BATTER UP!NFC 'Least' is back! Going back in time, NFC East fans will remember that in a 10-year span from Super Bowl XXI through Super Bowl XXX, an NFC East team won SEVEN of the 10 Super Bowls played in that span (49er fans will point to the fact that "their team" won the other three). However, that was THEN and this is NOW. The Giants and Eagles met last night in Philly, with the Eagles eking out a 22-21 win. Carson Wentz threw an 18-yard TD pass to Boston Scott with 40 seconds remaining for the game-winner. Wentz threw for a season-high 359 passing yards and two TDs, both coming late in the fourth quarter on scoring drives of 78 and 71 yards. He also had a rushing TD. The Giants attempted to answer on the ensuing drive but QB Daniel Jones was stripped of the ball and Philly recovered to seal the win. Improbably (incredibly?), the Eagles now sit ATOP of the division with 2-4-1 record, edging the 2-4 Cowboys by percentage points (.357 to .333). For those unfamiliar, the NFL gives a team half a win and half a loss in a tie game. NFC East teams are a combined 6-19-1 SU and 9-17 ATS. However, the New York Football Giants (as Howard Cosell always referred to them), may be 1-6 but they own the division's only winning ATS record at 4-3.NFL Week 7 resumes on Sunday, with Baltimore (5-1), Indianapolis (4-2), Miami (3-3), Minnesota (1-5) enjoying bye weeks. Only three unbeaten teams remain and barring a tie, ONE team will fall from the rung of unbeatens by Sunday night. The 5-0 Steelers will visit the 5-0 Titans in Nashville on Sunday. This game was originally scheduled for Oct 4, but an outbreak of COVID-19 in the Titans organization forced a postponement. Now, this Week 7 game marks just the EIGHTH time in NFL history that undefeated teams have met this deep into a season. The Steelers are 5-0 for the first time since 1978 and Tennessee for the first time since a 10-0 start in 2008. Tennessee is currently favored by just one point and the over/under is 50 1/2.Speaking of COVID-19, the Raiders were scheduled to host the Bucs in Las Vegas for NBC's Sunday Night Football. However, the Raiders placed four starting offensive linemen plus a safety on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday. All five players were deemed high-risk contacts Thursday. The NFL then announced later on Thursday that the Raiders' game against the Bucs had been moved to 4:05 ET "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that a game would be available for fans on Sunday Night Football." That means, the 5-0 Seahawks will now face the 4-2 Cardinals in Arizona for SNF.Seattle is the NFL's third unbeaten team but has yet to face an NFC West opponent. The Seahawks' 5-0 start is the best in franchise history and the 4-2 Cardinals are above .500 this late in the season for the first time since 2015, which was the last time they made the playoffs. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award a third of the way through the season, as he's completing 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. However, THREE of Seattle's five victories have come down to the game's final 15 seconds. Seattle is favored by 3 or 3 1/2-points and the over/under is 56.Another HUGE game is the 3-3 SF 49ers playing in Foxboro vs the 2-3 NE Pats. The 49ers won the NFC West last season at 13-3 (and advanced to the Super Bowl) but their 3-3 record leaves them in last-place in 2020, behind not only the 5-0 Seahawks but also the 4-2 Rams and Cards. The Pats are more than just the defending AFC East champs, as New England entered 2020 having captured the AFC East title the previous 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons (since 2001). The Pats welcome the 49ers to Gillette Stadium on Sunday with a 2-3 record. New England hasn't been under .500 through the fifth game or later in any season since they were 3-4 in 2002, which was the last season the Patriots did not win 10-plus games. New England is a two-point choice and the over/under is 44.I'll close with the NFL's only winless team, the 0-6 (also 0-6 ATS) J-E-T-S Jets, Jets Jets! The Jets are last in the NFL with 75 points scored (every other NFL team has scored at least 100), which is an average of 12.5 per game. The Jets are also one of EIGHT teams allowing 30-plus points per game (30.8), meaning they are losing by an average of 18.3 PPG. Buffalo QB Josh Allen was terrific in Buffalo's 4-0 start, completing 70.9 percent of his passes, while averaging 331.5 YPG through the air with 12 TDs and just one INT. However, Buffalo has lost back-to-back games, 42-26 at Tennessee and then 26-17, as Allen has completed just 58.8 percent, while averaging only 192.5 YPG passing with four TDs and three INTs in the back-to-back defeats. Buffalo is favored by 12 1/2-points and the over/under is 45.Updating the NFL's Y-T-D numbers to include last night's game. NFL home teams continue to struggle in 2020, going a modest 48-43-1 SU (.527) but a 'money-burning' 39-51-2 (.433) ATS. Home dogs are 8-21 SU and 13-14-2 ATS. There have been 46 overs, 44 unders and two 'pushes' on the season.Good luck...Larry

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Football, EPL and MLB Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 23, 2020

The Friday sports card features the third game of the MLB World Series along with three games in college football and an afternoon game in the English Premier League. Tampa Bay evened the World Series at a game apiece on Wednesday with their 6-4 victory over Los Angeles. After an off-day on Thursday, the Rays give the ball to Charlie Morton, who was 2-2 in nine regular-season starts with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The veteran right-hander is 3-0 in the playoffs this year with a 0.57 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP spanning 15 2/3 innings. The Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler, who was 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in eight regular-season starts. The right-hander has a 1-0 record with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in his 19 innings in this postseason. Los Angeles is a -148 moneyline favorite for Game 3, with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, hosts the World Series with Tampa Bay designated home team for Games 3, 4, and 5. Fox has the broadcast with the first pitch scheduled for 8:08 PM ET.The Friday night college football game on ESPN features the Tulsa Hurricanes traveling to South Florida to take on the Bulls. Tulsa evened their record at 1-1 back on October 3rd with their 34-26 upset win at Central Florida as a 20.5-point underdog. South Florida has lost four games in a row after they lost at Temple last Saturday by a 39-37 score as a 14-point underdog. The Golden Hurricanes are an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 50. The ESPN broadcast starts at 7:30 PM ET.Louisiana-Lafayette travels to UAB for a game that will be on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 3-1 after they lost their first game of the season last Wednesday in their 30-27 upset loss at home to Coastal Carolina as a 9-point favorite. The Blazers are 4-1 after they defeated Western Kentucky on Saturday by a 37-14 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Louisiana is a 3-point road favorite with a total of 50.The Big Ten kicks off their 2020 season with Illinois traveling to Madison to face Wisconsin. The Illini return 14 starters from the team last year that finished 6-7 after losing to California in the Redbox Bowl by a 35-20 score. The Badgers have 15 starters back from their 10-4 team that lost to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, before losing to Oregon in the Rose Bowl by a 28-27 score. Wisconsin will have revenge on their mind for this opener after blowing 20-7 and 23-14 leads to the Illini in a 24-23 upset loss at Illinois last year on October 19th. The Badgers are a 19.5-point favorite with an over/under of 51. The Big Ten Network has the game starting at 8 PM ET.The English Premier League begins their sixth game week with Leeds United traveling play at Aston Villa. The match starts at 3 PM ET on the NBC Peacock app.

NCAA Friday Night Football: Tulsa/South Florida Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 23, 2020

The Friday night game on ESPN features a battle of two American Athletic Conference opponents. Tulsa has only played two games this season, with their scheduled games against Arkansas State on September 26th, along their showdown with Cincinnati last Saturday postponed because of COVID complications. The Golden Hurricanes opened their season with a 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State on September 19th before upsetting Central Florida on the road by a 34-26 score as a 20.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago.Tulsa returned 13 starters from last year’s team that finished just 4-8. The Golden Hurricanes have won only nine combined games in the previous three seasons under head coach Philip Montgomery now in his sixth year running the program. Tulsa did play nine bowl teams last year. Not only did they average a +45 net yards per game mark in conference play despite their 2-6 record, but they outgained SMU, Cincinnati, and Memphis in losing efforts. Senior quarterback Zach Smith is back at quarterback after he passed for 3279 yards with 19 touchdowns last season. The former Baylor transfer completed 17 of 29 passes for 273 yards to lead Tulsa to the upset victory over the Knights. Smith threw for three touchdowns in that game for the third time in his career. He leads an offense that is scoring only 20.5 points-per-game with a 358.0 total yards per game average after their first two games. South Florida opened their season by defeating The Citadel before losing its last four games against four FBS opponents in Notre Dame, Cincinnati, East Carolina, and then Temple on Saturday by a 39-37 score. The Bulls have allowed 40.8 points-per-game in this four-game losing streak while allowing each of these opponents to score at least 28 points. South Florida returned 13 starters from the team last year that finished 4-8 in head coach Charlie Strong’s third year with the program. Strong was let go in the offseason, with the Bulls’ turning to former Clemson co-offensive coordinator hired as their new head coach. The 39-year-old tapped Jordan McCloud as his starting quarterback. The redshirt sophomore started games last season before his year ended prematurely by injury. McCloud is completing 64.3% of his passes this year, but he is averaging only 150 passing yards per game. South Florida is scoring only 19.0 points per game while averaging 329.6 yards per game. The Bulls have been stingy with their pass defense as they are holding their opponents to 173.6 passing yards per game, which is 12th-best in the nation. Defensive back Mehki LaPointe has picked off two passes.South Florida has won all three past meetings between these two teams. The last encounter was in 2018 when the Bulls rallied from a 24-10 deficit to win the game by a 25-24 score on a last-second field goal. BetOnline has Tulsa as an 11-point favorite with the total set at 50. The ESPN broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET.

What do Win, Place and Show Mean?

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 23, 2020

What do win, place and show mean?Sports betting dates back centuries. It all started with small games created within households but slowly went on to more significant events like the gladiators in Rome or the horse racing events in the Chinese empire. And horse racing really became popular the moment Great Britain started taking pride in the sport. Not only did they enjoy the actual sport, but maybe more so did they enjoy wagering on their favorite horse. Nowadays, horse racing is done throughout the entire world. In the United States, one famous race is the annual Kentucky Derby.With every horse race, there are multiple bets that you could make. Without getting too complicated right away, we want to shed some light on the win, place and show bets. These are the most common wagers placed among horse racing bets. In this article, we'll show you everything you need to know to get started with horse racing bets. Win, place and show betting in horse racing Before we dive into the bet types, you should be aware of the basics of horse racing. Usually (but not always), a horse race will have 10 to 12 horses in the field. On top of the horses, there are jockeys: the men responsible for speeding up their horses at the right moment. Now, the moment the brackets open up and the race starts, it's time for the jockeys to perform. It's all about picking the right moment to put your horse to work. If you wait too long, you might fall behind, or if you're too early, your horse might not have the endurance to stay ahead for the remainder of the race. With the right research, you'll be aware of which horse and which jockey to bet on to cash a ticket.Now, before we get into the exotic wagers, let's see what the most common bet types are. These are the win, place and show bets, also referred to as the straight bets in horse racing. What is the win bet in horse racing? The win bet can be compared to a moneyline bet. It's simple: you are wagering on your horse to finish in first place. No result other than winning matters for your wager. This is the most straightforward bet horse betting has to offer.What is the place bet in horse racing?To reduce your risk a little bit, but with that reducing your payout a little bit as well, you can go for a place bet. That means you pick a horse that you think will finish either in second place or first place. With this bet, the payout doesn't change regardless of whether your horse finishes in first or second.What is the show bet in horse racing?The third common bet type is the show bet. It's a form of wagering that has even less risk than the win bet or the place bet. With a show bet, the bettor chooses a horse to finish anywhere in the top three positions. That means, if your horse finishes in first, second or third place, your bet wins. Show wagers are a perfect starter for novice bettors who are still getting used to horse betting. Similar to the place bet, it doesn't matter if your horse wins, ends up in second, or finishes in third -- the odds remain the same. Thus, your payout is equal with any of those outcomes. Calculating your payout with win, place and show betting To calculate the bettor's payout, you should learn two terms that are common among horseplayers: a pool (the total amount wagered on a bet), and the payout (the price paid out to a winning bettor). With horse racing, you have a giant tote board that displays the total amount that bettors are wagering on each specific horse. Then, you also see what the total win pool, the total place pool, and the total show pool are.Calculating a win payout isn't that hard. You have a look at the tote board and scan for your horse and check the winning odds. Take your initial stake, and you can calculate your win payout.To calculate your place payouts, you can follow these steps: Take the amount in the place pool and subtract 15% for the takeout - that's the percentage the sportsbook or host track withholds from the betting pool. Now, subtract the total place money that was wagered on your horse and on the other horse which finished among the top two. The remaining amount of money is the profit in the place pool. Divide this amount equally between the two pools of bettors for the two winning horses at the end of the race. Finally, take the amount in step 3, reserved for the pool of bettors on your horse, and divide it by the amount of money in the place pool that was bet on your horse. The resultant amount is the profit per $1 wagered. But horse tracks report payouts based on a $2 wager. So, double that amount, and then add $2 (which represents the stake), and you have your estimated place price. This might sound complicated and difficult to digest, but a little practice will take you a long way. To determine your show payoffs, you go the same route, but in step 2, instead of subtracting the pool money on the top two horses, subtract the pool money on the top three horses. Then, in step 3, divide your profits equally among the three pools of bettors for the top three finishing horses, not two. Different bet types in horse racing All of the above are quite simple bets. But the real advanced bettors in sports betting take it up a notch. That's where the complicated bet types come into play. We can divide the exotic wagers into two types: bets on single races, and parlay bets. Single race exotic wagering A lot can happen in a single race. A multitude of horses are in a constant battle on the race track, to see which finishes first. Nevertheless, you, as a bettor, have lots of different plays. In a single race you could take on these exotic wagers:Exacta - Perfecta - ExactorThe exacta wager (also referred to as a perfecta or exactor) looks a lot like the place bet, but it's a bit more difficult. With a place bet, it doesn't matter in which order the first two finishers end, plus you are only wagering on a single horse. With an exacta, you bet on two horses and the exact order matters. You have a winning ticket when you successfully predict the horse which comes in first, and also the horse which comes in second.QuinellaThe quinella bet is similar to an exacta bet as you have to predict the top two horses, but it doesn't require you to predict the exact order. The bettor only has to select the top two finishers, regardless of which horse finishes first. As the risk is smaller than with an exacta, the payout is smaller.Trifecta - TriactorThe trifecta (also referred to as a triactor) takes the exacta up a notch. Instead of predicting the top two finishing horses, you have to predict the top three horses. That means you only have a winning ticket when you successfully predict the first, second and third place finishers in the exact order.SuperfectaThis is the most tricky bet of all the bets you could make on a single race. The more risks you take, the higher your payout could be. With a superfecta, you have to predict the top four finishing horses successfully. That means you have a winning ticket when you pick the horses ending up in first, second, third and fourth place, in the exact order.Multiple race exotic wageringWe all know people who just can't take enough risk in their life. The same goes for some sports bettors. They're seduced by the extreme payouts that came along with the high risks you take. Predicting the four winning horses in a single race is hard, but imagine you took that in a parlay with multiple races -- that's where the real longshots come in. You should know that these bet types are against the house, instead of against the pari-mutuel betting pool among other bettors.Without further ado, let's dive right into the multiple race exotic wagers that are available:Daily doubleThis bet type is usually available at any race track or sportsbook. It allows you to bet on two consecutive races, usually either the early double (the first and second race of the day) or the late double (the last two races on the card).Pick 3 / Pick 4 or Pick 6This is similar to a double bet, but it's simply larger in terms of consecutive races you are wagering on and the number of horses you predict. The pick 3, up through pick 6, are not available at all horse tracks or sportsbooks, but usually you can see these available on your betting card. This is a longshot bet which is difficult to hit, thus the payout is extremely large. How to incorporate win, place and show betting in your strategy Horse racing is enjoyable, and the adrenaline rush of going to the track to see your horse outperform the others is priceless. But if you're in this for the long run and want to take your sports betting career to the next level, you have to get comfortable with some tips and tricks. To get you started the right way, or to adjust your current strategy, you can follow these tips:Never underestimate the value of researchMost of us who have gone to the race tracks know how exciting things can get, and with the adrenaline rushing through your veins, you can act spontaneously. Unfortunately, making decisions based on your gut feeling doesn't deliver you that many winning tickets. Instead, the smart move is to do your research to determine which horses have the best capabilities, and which jockeys are the best riders. And that is what handicapping is all about.Use boxes to reduce your riskWhen you're into exacta and trifecta betting, you have lots of different possibilities. You have to predict the right order, but you also have to make sure you don't lose your entire bankroll straightaway. To reduce your risk, you can make use of boxes. The exacta box, as it’s called, places every single combination of your chosen horses into your exacta ticket. The trifecta box does the same for a trifecta bet. That means if your chosen horses finish in any order in the number of spots needed for your bet, you're guaranteed a payout. But do make sure you keep an eye on the costs as they increase per extra wager you make.Certainly, horse racing is a completely different type of sports betting than the typical NFL or MLB matchup, but it's not any less thrilling. In fact, with the right knowledge and the right means of research, there's a great chance you will make a lot of money along the way. It also helps to bet with the best race book. Our #1-rated sportsbook is BetAnySports, which offers 10% bonus payouts on winnings at major tracks, as well as a 9% rebate on losing tickets. It doesn’t get any better than that, so join BetAnySports today. You now know the ins-and-outs of horse betting, so have fun!

Big Ten Report: Week 1

by ASA, Inc.

Thursday, Oct 22, 2020

ILLINOIS @ WISCONSIN (-18.5 OPEN to -19.5 CURRENT) – Friday, Oct 23rd ILLINOIS LAST YEAR – The Illini finished with a 6-6 regular season record in 2019 (4-5 in the Big Ten) and went to their first bowl game since the 2014 season (8-5 ATS). They did lose last year’s bowl game getting beat 35-20 by California in the Red Box Bowl. They return 14 starters this season including 9 on offense. QB Brandon Peters returns who threw for 1800 yards and 18 TD’s last year. They do lose 75% of their rushing yards from last year with RB’s Corbin, Brown & Bonner all moving on. On defense they finished in the middle of the pack in Big 10 play in both PPG allowed (26) and YPG allowed (408). The Illini have some key players back on LB and in the defensive backfield but lost some contributors up front. Their 4 projected starting defensive linemen for this season had only 20 tackles combined last year. ILLINOIS NEXT UP – Home vs Purdue WISCONSIN LAST YEAR – The Badgers won the Big 10 West a year ago and lost 34-21 to Ohio State in the conference championship game. Wisconsin then went on to lose to Oregon 28-27 in the Rose Bowl finishing with a 10-4 record overall (including bowl game) with a 7-2 regular season Big 10 mark. They lose pretty much all of their key skill players offensively with starting QB Coan out with a broken foot, RB Taylor (now with the Colts), and WR Cephus (now with the Lions). The new starting QB will be redshirt freshman Mertz who was one of the top rated QB’s in HS two years ago. He played in 4 games last year and threw 10 passes. Defensively Wisconsin should be very good again. They finished 4th nationally in total defense and return 15 of their top 18 tacklers. WISCONSIN NEXT UP – @ Nebraska MOST RECENT MEETING – The Illini upset Wisconsin in Champaign last year as 30-point underdogs! Illinois was 0-3 in league play entering the game and pulled the shocker winning 24-23 on a last second FG. Wisconsin, however, outgained Illinois 420 to 315 in the loss but had 3 turnovers. POINTSPREAD NUGGET – The Illini are 13-7 ATS (65%) the last 20 times they’ve been a dog of 20 or more dating back to 2006. PENN STATE (-7 OPEN to -6.5 CURRENT) @ INDIANA – Saturday, Oct 24th PENN STATE LAST YEAR – The Nittany Lions finished with a very good 10-2 regular season record last year with their 2 setbacks coming @ Minnesota 31-26 and @ Ohio State 28-17. That landed them in 2nd place in the Big 10 East and they went on to roll over Memphis 53-39 in the Cotton Bowl. Starting QB Clifford is back under center after finishing 4th in the league in pass efficiency with 23 TDs and 7 interceptions. He led an offense that averaged 36 PPG which was good for 2nd in the Big 10 and 15th nationally. PSU also returns their top 3 RB’s who combined for over 1,600 yards on the ground (one of those players, RB Brown, now may miss the season). WR Hamler is the biggest loss on offense (900 yards receiving). They also will be working under a new OC who came over from Minnesota. Defensively they allowed 16 PPG last year but lost their best player on that side of the ball LB Parsons who has opted out this season and is getting ready for the NFL draft. The also lose their top 3 tacklers overall and 6 starters on defense have departed. PENN STATE NEXT UP – Home vs Ohio State INDIANA LAST YEAR – The Hoosiers 8 wins last season (8-4 in the regular season) was their most since the 1993 season and it was their first winning record since 2007. That record allowed them the opportunity to face Tennessee in the Gator Bowl, a 23-22 IU loss. They return the 2nd most starters in the Big 10 with 17 regulars back. QB Penix was the starter to begin the 2019 season and is back this season. Injuries derailed his effectiveness last season and he wound up playing in only 6 games. His replacement was Peyton Ramsey who transferred to Northwestern and is slated to start for the Wildcats. The Hoosiers return their top rusher (Smith – 845 yards), top WR (Philyor – 1,002 yards), and most of their offensive line. Much is expected of this unit that finished 3rd in the Big 10 in total offense. Defensively they held opponents to 24.4 PPG which was their best effort since 1993. They return 9 starters on that side of the ball. INDIANA NEXT UP – @ Rutgers MOST RECENT MEETING – Penn State topped IU 34-27 last season in Happy Valley. The Nits failed to cover as 15-point favorites and the Hoosiers actually had more first downs, a time of possession edge, and outgained PSU by nearly 100 yards. POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Penn State is 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) their last 33 games when tabbed a road favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season. RUTGERS @ MICHIGAN STATE (-15.5 OPEN to -13 CURRENT) – Saturday, Oct 24th RUTGERS LAST YEAR – The good news is Rutgers returns 17 starters which is tied for the 2nd most in the Big Ten behind Northwestern. The bad news is they stunk with those starters in the line up last season. They were just 2-10 on the season with their only wins coming vs Liberty and UMass. All of their 9 Big Ten losses (0-9 in conference play) came by at least 21 points. QB Langan returns after starting the final 8 games last year and is not a good passer (50% completions with 4 TD’s and 9 interceptions) but brings a running threat to the position. QB Sitkowski is also back and he started a few games last year and is the much better passer. Noah Vedral, a grad transfer from Nebraska, will also get a shot to be the regular signal caller. The Knights scored a TOTAL of 51 points in Big 10 play (5.6 PPG) with those 2 running the show last season. Greg Schiano returns as the head coach after departing Rutgers back in 2012 to take his shot in the NFL as the head coach of Tampa Bay. His final season at Rutgers in 2011 he led them to a 9-4 overall record. They have had one winning season since Schiano left. RUTGERS NEXT UP – Home vs Indiana MICHIGAN STATE LAST YEAR – Long time head coach Mark Dantonio and MSU have parted ways despite his 114-57 record in his 13 years leading the Spartan program. Melvin Tucker takes over after just one year as head coach @ Colorado where he finished with a 5-7 record. He’s got some inexperience on his roster as MSU returns just 10 starters, the least in the Big 10. QB is a big question as back up Rocky Lombardi returns but was ineffective when he did get a chance (33% completion rate with 0 TD’s and 2 interceptions). The other 2 hopefuls at QB are freshman Thorne (never played in a college game) and sophomore Thorne (3 career pass attempts). One would hope with severe inexperience at QB that MSU could take the pressure off by running the ball but they finished 13th in the Big 10 in that category last year. The defense was always very good under Dantonio but they must replace most of their front 7 this season including 3 starters on the defensive line who all were regulars the last 3 seasons. MICHIGAN STATE NEXT UP – @ Michigan MOST RECENT MEETING – The Spartans traveled to Rutgers last season and shut out the Knights 27-0 as 22-point favorites. MSU’s defense held Rutgers to 83 yards rushing and 57 yards passing in the game. POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Since the beginning of the 2018 season, MSU has been a favorite of -14 or more 10 times. They are 2-8 ATS in those games. NEBRASKA @ OHIO STATE (-24 OPEN to -26.5 CURRENT) – Saturday, Oct 24th NEBRASKA LAST YEAR – Believe it or not, the Huskers have had just ONE winning season since 2014. That’s it. Last year was not that winning season as they finished 5-7 and failed to make a bowl appearance. Head coach Scott Frost was brought in from UCF to be this program’s savior and thus far he has a 9-15 record in 2 seasons. His predecessor, Mike Riley, was fired after 3 seasons with a 19-19 record which doesn’t look so bad right now. Adrian Martinez is back at QB for the third season. After his freshman year there was talk about him being the next great QB at Nebraska. Last year he took a step back with a lower completion percentage, fewer yards passing, fewer TD’s, and more interceptions when comparing it to his freshman year. He returns with 10 starters on an offense that averaged 415 YPG last season but lost his top WR Spielman who transferred to TCU. The Husker rush defense has been a major problem the last three seasons as they allowed 215, 195, and 188 YPG on the ground. They lose 3 starting defensive lineman who have been starters and major contributors over the last few seasons. The defensive backfield looks to be a strength with all upperclassmen in the starting line up. NEBRASKA NEXT UP – Home vs Wisconsin OHIO STATE LAST YEAR – OSU was a perfect 13-0 last season before losing to Clemson in the National Semi Final game. A game they led 16-0 midway through the 2nd quarter. The Buckeyes have the 2nd fewest starters returning in the Big 10 with 11 although that never seems to matter as they just reload with superior talent. One player the does return is QB Fields who is currently one of the favorites to win the Heisman (+250 to +600 range) despite not playing a game this season. Fields threw for over 3,000 yards last year with 41 TD’s and only 3 interceptions. They lose all everything RB Dobbins, who had over 2,000 yards rushing last season, but they pick up Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon (over 2,000 yards rushing in 3 years with Sooners) and last year’s back up RB Teague had 800 yards on the ground. The WR’s are young but 3 deep at each spot and the offensive line should be very good. The defense, which led the nation in YPG and YPP allowed, will potentially start 10 upperclassmen including first round talent DB Wade who opted back in to play this season after opting out during the COVID uncertainty. OHIO STATE NEXT UP – @ Penn State MOST RECENT MEETING – OSU blasted Nebraska in Lincoln last year as a 17.5 point favorite. The 48-7 final score was no fluke as the Bucks outgained the Huskers by 350 yards and scored points in each of their first 8 possessions. OSU has won 5 straight in this series by an average score of 53-19! POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Nebraska has been an underdog of 24 points or more just 3 times in their HISTORY! They are 2-1 ATS in those games. Their only spread loss in that situation was against this OSU team in 2017 where the Buckeyes covered the 24 points spread by blasting the Huskers 56-14. IOWA (-4 OPEN to -3.5 CURRENT) @ PURDUE – Saturday, Oct 24th IOWA LAST YEAR – Iowa finished the 2019 season with a 10-3 record which included a blowout win over USC in the Holiday Bowl. The Hawkeyes 3 losses to Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin came by a combined 10 points. The offense returns their top RB (Goodson) and top WR (Smith-Marsette), however who will be running the show at QB is the biggest question mark. Nate Stanley threw for over 8,000 yards and 68 TD’s as a 3-year starter for Iowa. The Hawkeyes had a 25-11 record with Stanley as their starter. Stepping in for Stanley will be sophomore QB Petras who was highly regarded coming out of HS but has attempted just 10 passes in his career. On defense Iowa loses nearly everyone along the defensive line and their top LB Colbert, who was their 4th leading tackler last year, is opting out of this season due to COVID concerns. The defense, which finished 12th nationally in YPG & 14th in YPP allowed last season, must replace more than half of their starters (6). IOWA NEXT UP – Home vs Northwestern PURDUE LAST YEAR – Head coach Jeff Brohm enters his 4th year as head coach at Purdue. After raising the excitement level in West Lafayette his first 2 seasons, making a bowl game in each, his Boilers dropped back to 4-8 last year. Word is that Brohm has tested positive for COVID and may not be on the sidelines for this game. Although we know that can change (see Nick Saban!). Many of their problems on offense last year stemmed from injuries at QB (they had 3 different starters throughout the season) and an injury to their top offensive threat WR Moore. He had 344 yards receiving in their first 2 games alone but played in only 4 games total last year due to an injury. Moore is back this year and will play after opting out a few months ago. His QB will be either Plummer or O’Connell, both who played a lot last season and each had over 1,000 yards passing. The defense was one of the worst in the league last year allowing 31 PPG (12th in the Big 10) and 436 YPG (13th in the conference). The Boilers do have a lot of experience returning with 17 starters back from a year ago. They closed out 2019 on a sour note allowing 40+ points to Wisconsin & Indiana – both losses. PURDUE NEXT UP – @ Illinois MOST RECENT MEETING – These 2 met last season in Iowa City with Purdue as a 17.5 point underdog. The Boilers hung tough and picked up the cover but lost 26-20. Iowa held Purdue to just 33 yards rushing on 18 carries. The Boilers were -3 turnovers in the game. POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Since 2013, Iowa has been a road favorite 21 times. They are in impressive 17-4 ATS in those games. MICHIGAN (-3 OPEN & CURRENT) @ MINNESOTA – Saturday, October 24th MICHIGAN LAST YEAR – The Wolverines finished last regular season with a 9-3 record with losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. They were then beaten badly by Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. So when all was said and done, the Wolverines won the games they were supposed to win (won all games as a favorite) and lost the 4 games in which they were underdogs. You’ll be seeing lots of new faces on the Michigan offensive side of the ball this year as they lost many key players, including QB Shea Patterson. His replacement is still up in the air according to head coach Jim Harbaugh, however it looks like junior Joe Milton will get the nod as he’s been running with the #1’s in practice for the most part. He’s attempted 11 passes in his career at Michigan. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that lost 4 of 5 starters and his top WR, Nico Collins (730 yards receiving last year), reportedly signed with an agent last month and is no longer no the team. The offense will be a work in progress. On defense they should be very good again this season. They finished 11th in total defense nationally last season and held 6 of their 9 Big Ten opponents to 14 points or less. Michigan does lose their top 3 tacklers from last season and has 2 new CB’s starting, but many of the other replacements have decent experience. MICHIGAN NEXT UP – Home vs Michigan State MINNESOTA LAST YEAR – The Gophers ended last season ranked in the top 10 after winning 11 games for the first time since 1904. Their only losses came at the hands of Wisconsin & Iowa and they topped Auburn in the Outback Bowl to complete a great season. The offense should be very good in 2020. Last year they averaged 34 PPG which was their best production since the 2005 season. They return QB Morgan, who led the conference with 250 YPG through the air and was the 2nd most efficient signal caller in the league, and he will operate behind an offensive line that returns all 5 starters. His top WR target, Bateman, opted out during the COVID uncertainty, but has now decided to play this season. The Gophs did lose their offensive coordinator to Penn State but replaced him with Mike Sanford who has been the OC Notre Dame, Utah State, and head coach Western Kentucky. Defensively this team was top notch last season ranking 10th nationally in total defense but they did lose 4 key players to the NFL. They bring back just 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball and lost both LB’s and their top pass rushers up front. This will be an inexperienced defense that we won’t know a lot about early in the season. MINNESOTA NEXT UP – @ Maryland MOST RECENT MEETING – These 2 haven’t met since the 2017 season. Michigan played host to the Gophers that year and blasted them 33-10 as 16.5 point favorites. The Wolverine defense held Minnesota to just 164 total yards on that day. POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Since 2007 Minnesota has been a home underdog 36 times. They are 23-13 ATS in those games. MARYLAND @ NORTHWESTERN (-10.5 OPEN to -11 CURRENT) – Saturday, October 24th MARYLAND LAST YEAR – The Terps started last year OK winning 3 of their first 5 games vs marginal competition. However, they followed that up by losing their final 7 games to finish 3-9 on the season. Their wins were against Howard, Syracuse & Rutgers who finished last season with a combined 9-27 record. Head coach Mike Locksley, who took over prior to last season, has his work cut out for him with a program that has a 14-34 record since joining the Big 10. The offense returns 7 starters but lost top RB McFarland who now plays for the Steelers. There is some buzz on that side of the ball as Alabama transfer Tagovailoa (yes Tua’s brother) will be the starter at QB to begin the season. Redshirt freshman Legendre, who saw action in 3 games last season, will also get a shot at QB. On the other side of the ball Maryland finished dead last in the conference and 109th nationally in total defense. They were also last in the conference and 116th nationally in pass defense. They lost 3 key regulars from their defensive backfield, however their top DB Richardson returns after missing last year with an injury. MARYLAND NEXT UP – Home vs Minnesota NORTHWESTERN LAST YEAR – Believe it or not, the Cats won the Big 10 West back in 2018 in the season with an 8-1 regular season conference record. They reversed those numbers last season finishing 1-8 in Big 10 play and 3-9 overall. There is hope for Northwestern this year as they return the most starters in the conference (19) and add a new QB and offensive coordinator in hopes of reviving their stagnant scoring numbers. Last year they finished 13th in the league in total offense and scoring. Through their first 6 Big 10 games last season, the Wildcats averaged only 6.8 PPG but improved late in the year. Transfer QB Ramsey was the starter @ Indiana last year and should drastically improve their passing game. New OC Bajakian come over from Boston College (was with Tampa Bay Bucs prior to BC) where the run heavy Eagles offense averaged 250 YPG rushing in 2019. Defense held 8 of 12 opponents to 24 points or less and only won 3 games which tells you how bad their offense was. They return most of the back 7 but have some holes to fill up front. Top pass rusher Ernest Brown is back and healthy after an injury filled 2019. NORTHWESTERN NEXT UP – @ Iowa MOST RECENT MEETING – These 2 haven’t met since the 2017 season when Northwestern went to Maryland as a 2.5 point road favorite and came away with a 37-21 win. That’s the only meeting between these two programs since the Terps joined the Big 10 in 2014. POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Northwestern has been a terrible double digit home favorite throughout the years with a 14-29 ATS record in that situation dating back to 1980. More recently, they are 4-11 ATS in that spot since early 2013.

Ness Notes: Thursday October 22

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Oct 22, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary." World Series Update: The 2020 World Series got underway Tuesday night and the Dodgers looked every bit the part of a team with MLB's best record in this COVID-shortened season with an 8-3 victory. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw shrugged off his rocky playoff history to give up just ONE run on two hits over six innings with only one walk and eight strikeouts. He retired 13 consecutive batters until Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier hit a solo HR in the fifth. In contrast, the Ray's Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and SIX walks (three would eventually score) in 4.1 innings of work in which he allowed SIX runs (all earned). Cody Bellinger gave the Dodgers an early lead with a two-run HR (two days after his go-ahead HR in Game 7 of the NLCS) and Mookie Betts hit his first postseason HR for the Dodgers in the sixth to open a 7-1 advantage. Betts, Muncy and Taylor each had two hits. Tampa Bay had just six hits, while LA struck out 10 Rays as opposed to allowing just ONE walk.However, Game 2 told a very different tale, as Blake Snell took charge from the mound in the first four innings, while Brandon Lowe took charge at the plate. Lowe came in batting .083 (4-for-48) with one HR in his previous 13 postseason games but ended his slump in dramatic fashion. Lowe jump started the Rays' offense with a solo HR in the first inning off Tony Gonsolin, then hit a two-run shot in the fifth inning off Dustin May, as the Rays led 5-0 into the bottom of the 5th. Snell didn't allow a hit through four innings, while striking out two Dodgers in each of the first four innings. However, Snell's dreams of a no-hitter ended in the 5th. He walked Kiké Hernandez with two out and served up a two-run HR to Chris Taylor. A walk to Mookie Betts and a single by Corey Seager ended Snell's night. Four relievers held off the Dodgers, allowing two runs over 4.1 innings, as Tampa Bay evened the Series at one-all. The Rays had 10 hits, the first time they reached double digits since Game 3 of their ALDS against the New York Yankees, a single-digit-hit skid that had lasted 10 games. The Dodgers used SEVEN pitchers in the loss but the good news (for both pitching staffs) is that Thursday is an "off day." Game 3 is set for Friday and it features the best pitching matchup of the series, LA's Walker Buehler vs Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton. Early price is LA (-155) with an over/under line of 7 1/2.Note: My 10* MLB Game of the Year is already posted for Game 3. BATTER UP! NFL Week 7 kicks off with another uninspiring contest (way too many already this season), when the 1-5 NY Giants visit the 1-4-1 Philadelphia Eagles (FOX/NFL Network at 8:20 ET). That said, with the 2-4 Cowboys atop the sad-sack NFC East, the winner of this game is "right in the mix" for the division title. The division as whole is 5-18-1 SU and 8-16 ATS. Actually, the two 1-5 teams (NY Giants and Washington) account for SIX of the division's eight ATS wins. The Eagles have won SEVEN straight games against the Giants and haven't lost at home to their NFC East rivals since a 15-7 setback in 2013. Philly is favored by 4 1/2-points and the over/under is 45. Good luck to all who dare play this one. I'll pass and wait until Sunday, when my card will feature my 1st 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play of NFL 2020 (represents my 37 years as a professional handicapper).The college football weekend also kicks off tonight, as 3-2 Arkansas St visits Boone, NC to take on 2-1 Appalachian St. ESPN will be there to televise at 7:30 ET. App St is favored (-13.5) and the over/under is 68. The biggest storyline of the weekend in the college ranks is the return of the Big Ten. CFB's oldest conference (established in 1895) announced it was canceling its fall football season back on August 11. However, a little over a month later (in mid-September), the conference announced that it had adopted “significant medical protocols,” and would return to play the weekend of October 23-24. So here we are and someone had to be first. Kicking off the 2020 Big Ten schedule will be Illinois and Wisconsin, with the 14th-ranked Badgers hosting the Illini in front of an empty Camp Randall Stadium in Madison Friday night at 8:00 ET on the Big Ten Network. The Badgers had won the last nine meetings and 13 of the previous 14, with Wisconsin having outscored Illinois by a combined 145-46 in the four meetings since Paul Chryst took over the Wisconsin program in 2015. So what happened in 2019? James McCourt converted a 39-yard FG as time expired, as Illinois upset Wisconsin 24-23 as a 30 1/2-point underdog. Methinks the Badgers will remember? Wisconsin is favored by 19 points and the over/under is 51.5.The remaining 12 Big Ten schools (six games) will all be in action on Saturday. Top-10 schools Ohio St (No. 5) and Penn St (No. 8) are home to Nebraska and at Indiana, respectively. However, the Big Ten's marquee Game of the week is No. 18 Michigan at No. 21 Minnesota. Most feel as if Harbaugh has underachieved since returning to his alma mater to coach and the Wolverines are coming off a 9-4 season, including a 35-16 loss to Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. As for Minnesota, PJ Fleck's Gophers 'rowed the boat' to an 11-2 season (including a 31-24 win in the Outback Bowl over Auburn as a 7-point dog), the school's first 11-win season since 1904. It's safe to say this is a "big one" for the Golden Gophers, as the last time Minnesota was involved in a matchup of ranked teams to start a season was 1968. Michigan is favored by three points and the over/under is 54 (kick off is 7:30 ET on ABC).Michigan/Minnesota is one of four games featuring ranked opponents. The other three are No. 6 Oklahoma St at home against No. 17 Iowa St (Cowboys are favored by 3 1/2-points), No. 9 Cincinnati at No. 16 SMU (Bearcats are 2 1/2-point underdogs) and No. 14 No. Carolina home to No. 23 NC State (Tar Heels are favored by 15 points). There have been just 11 games featuring ranked opponents in 2020 and the higher ranked team has gone 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS (the lone SU loser was then-No. 3 Florida losing on Oct 10 at then-No. 21 A&M). As for playing on ranked teams when matching up against unranked opponents, it has been a 'money-burning' proposition so far. Through games played Oct 17, ranked teams are 44-16 SU (.733) against their unranked opponents but only 20-39-1 (.339) ATS! Friday's game (Wisconsin hosting Illinois) is the first of 12 games in which a ranked team is squaring off against a ranked opponent. Keep the above stat in mind before getting involved with any of the 12 favorites this weekend. That said, following a theory called "regression to the mean," we are overdue to see the ATS record swing back in favor of the ranked teams. Is this the week? Top-10 teams facing unranked opponents are No. 1 Clemson (-46) home to Syracuse, No. 2 Alabama (-21) at Tennessee, No. 3 Notre Dame (-10.5) at Pittsburgh, No. 5 Ohio St (-26) home to Nebraska and No. 8 Penn St (-5.5) at Indiana. Good luck...Larry

Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Oct 22, 2020

The Thursday sports card features one game in college football along with one game in the NFL, with the World Series seeing a day off before Game 3 takes place on Friday.The Thursday night game on ESPN features another clash of Sun Belt Conference rivals this week. Arkansas State raised their record to a 3-2 mark on the season in the game last Thursday on ESPN with their 59-52 victory at home over Georgia State. The Red Wolves generated 609 yards of offense in this shootout while giving up 583 yards to the Panthers. Head coach Blake Anderson is disproving the conventional wisdom frowning upon rotating quarterbacks. His offense produced 551 passing yards with eight touchdown passes last week. Sophomore Layne Hatcher completed 21 of 28 passes for 332 yards with four touchdowns, with junior Logan Bonner completed 18 of 28 passes for 197 yards with another three touchdown passes. Neither quarterback threw an interception (and wide receiver Roshauud Paul threw the final touchdown pass on a trick play). Bonner was the starting quarterback for the first four games last season before he suffered a season-ending hand injury, which provided Hatcher the opportunity to play with the former Alabama transfer averaging 294.6 passing yards-per-game the rest of the way, which was 8th best in the nation. Hatcher is completing 63.3% of his passes this season for 896 yards with a 9.0 yards-per-attempt passing average along with ten touchdown passes and one interception. But Anderson continues to rotate quarterbacks because Bonner is completing 63.9% of his passes for 938 yards with a 7.0 yards-per-attempt average along with 11 touchdown pass to three interceptions. Appalachian State will take the field for the first time since September 26th when they defeated Campbell by a 52-21 score. The Mountaineers have also defeated Charlotte, with their loss being at Marshall in a battle of perhaps the best two non-power five conference teams this season. Arkansas State is 1-1 in conference play with their loss to Coastal Carolina. Their second loss this season was at Memphis, but they have a quality non-conference victory on their resume with a 35-31 win at Kansas State. Appalachian State has yet to play a conference game this season. BetAnySports lists the Mountaineers as a 13-point favorite with the total set at 66.5. The ESPN broadcast starts at 7:30 PM ET. The Thursday Night Football game on Fox is a battle of two NFC East teams with losing records yet who remain very much alive to win the division and make the playoffs.The New York Giants won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington. Philadelphia has lost two straight games after their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore last week. They are a half-game behind the first-place Dallas Cowboys with a 1-4-1 record. With six victories on the season quite possibly being the magic number to win their division, this is a critical game despite it being between two teams with just two combined victories between them. Philadelphia has won the last seven meetings between these two teams after they swept their two games last season. BetAnySports lists the Eagles as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 45. Kickoff is set shortly after 8:20 PM ET.

NFL Thursday Night Football: Eagles/Giants Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Oct 22, 2020

The Thursday Night Football game on Fox is a battle of two NFC East teams with losing records yet who remain very much alive to win the division and make the playoffs.The New York Giants won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington. Philadelphia has lost two straight games after their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore last week. They are a half-game behind the first-place Dallas Cowboys with a 1-4-1 record. With six victories on the season quite possibly being the magic number to win their division, this is a critical game despite it being between two teams with just two combined victories between them. Injuries have played a significant role in shaping the seasons for both of these teams. Philadelphia has placed nine players on the Injured Reserve list, and they have another six players declared out for this game. The Eagles have received some good news so far on the short week with head coach Doug Pederson declaring on Wednesday that he expects left tackle Lane Johnson, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and cornerback Avonte Maddux to play on Thursday. Philly still has plenty of holes to fill. Philly running back Miles Sanders is out with a knee injury, which will leave their ground game in the hands of Boston Scott and Corey Clement. The 5’7" Scott will likely be the primary ball-carrier, but he has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries this season. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey remains out, proclaimed Peterson, after not playing yet this season with his foot injury. Jackson plans to give it a go with his hamstring injury, but it remains unclear how effective the often-injured 33-year-old will be. Tight end Dallas Goedert is on IR with an ankle injury. The Eagles have yet to comment on Zach Ertz, who left the game on Sunday with an ankle injury that will reportedly keep him out three to four weeks. That tight end duo combined for 1523 receiving yards last year. Travis Fulgham has come off the practice squad to generate 284 receiving yards in three games with three touchdowns.The Philadelphia offensive line is without three starters with Jason Peters and Isaac Seumalo on IR and Andre Dillard out indefinitely. Peters resigned in the fall after his replacement, Brandon Brooks, suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. Backup tackle Jack Driscoll, who had been playing for Johnson when he suffered his ankle injury, is out with an ankle injury of his own. Backup lineman Matt Pryor has been taken off the COVID list to offer this team some much-needed depth. The Eagles defense will be without defensive tackle Malik Jackson, who has a quad injury. Middle linebacker T.J. Edwards is one of their projected starters now on IR. Several players remain questionable, including linebacker Duke Riley. This unit is allowing 29.2 points per game along with 355.2 yards-per-game. The Giants have seven players on Injured Reserve, which does not include running back Saquon Barkley who is out the season with his torn ACL. They added Devonta Freeman, who only gained 61 yards on 18 carries against Washington. Quarterback Daniel Jones leads the team with 204 rushing yards this season. New York is third-to-last in the league, with an 87.8 rushing yards-per-game average. New York is also without wide receiver Sterling Shepard, linebacker Lorenzo Carter, and safety Xavier McKinney, who are all on Injured Reserve. Philadelphia has won the last seven meetings between these two teams after they swept their two games last season. BetAnySports lists the Eagles as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 45. Kickoff is set shortly after 8:20 PM ET.

What is a Reverse Wager?

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Oct 22, 2020

What is a reverse wager?When you are a sports bettor who has been around for a while, you might start looking around for some new bet types. You’ve mastered moneyline bets, and can correctly predict which teams will cover the spread in a point spread bet, and are familiar with wagering on totals as well. From that moment on, you can start looking at some more exotic bets. The kind of bets that might take a little extra time to understand, but that could boost your sports betting experience. You can do so by experimenting with reverse bets. This wager type can usually be found at any typical sportsbook. It's not extremely hard to understand, but it does require some explanation before we can dive into implementing it into your sports betting strategy. The reverse bet can be made by putting several bets together -- similar to parlay betting. The action reverse has lots of similarities with other betting types. It could mean you're hedge betting to secure your payout or working with multiple if bets. The reverse bets are available for all major sports from the MLB to the NBA, but are most popular throughout the NFL football season.There are many outcomes and many different scenarios to draw for reverse bets. But you have to know how to make use of the outcomes accurately. Any sportsbook, of course, will take your bets, no matter how complicated. But it's on you to make sure you’re clear of what you're wagering on and reducing your risk. In this guide, we'll provide you with all the right material you need to get familiar with reverse wagers.Before we dive into reverse bets, you have to understand what if bets are. It's a different kind of bet that has a direct correlation with the reverse bet. What is an if bet?The if bet can be best explained as a chain of wagers that only continue when the bettor wins the initial choice, the first bet. In this way, you're building up a subsequent bet that could continuously be increasing your potential payout. Similar to a parlay bet, all of your remaining bets can only be won if you manage to win the previous bet. Now, unlike a parlay, it's not an all-or-nothing bet. When you lose one leg of your chain of wagers, you might still remain profitable, and it's just a matter of making the right calculations in terms of odds and chances of winning. You can place an if bet on 2-6 teams at most sportsbooks. But some, like BetAnySports (which is currently our #1-rated sportsbook), offer you the possibility to place up to 15 teams in your if bet! The more teams you bet on, the more possible combinations, and that means more possible outcomes. Even better: BetAnySports also offers rolling if bets, so you can place a straight, parlay or teaser wager and make it contingent on the outcome of a previously placed wager which is still pending (the pending wager can be a wager posted on an event that is in progress or it can be a wager on an event that has yet to begin). Generally, you want to make sure that you stay in control of your betting slip. If the first team wins, ties or cancels, all your remaining teams would turn into straight wagers, without being tied into an if bet.In simple terms, it would mean that your bet on team A versus team B has to be a winner before your bet on team C versus team D can be realized. Now, with a two-team parlay, you are in double-action, which means double the risk. But, that's where a reverse bet could come into play. How does a reverse bet work?When you understand the basics of an if bet, we can start looking at reverse bets. Placing a parlay bet without any form of a safety net is a matter of taking the maximum risk. The moment you change this by making use of reverse wagers, you are reducing your risk and keeping your bankroll safe. This means placing two or more if bets together into one reverse bet. If done the right way, your action is covered, and basically, it doesn't matter which teams win for you to not lose your entire stake. To adequately explain reverse wagers, let's take an example. Let's imagine you're wagering on the NBA. We'll take two games. Both focus on the point spread. The betting lines could look something like this: First bet: Los Angeles Clippers -4 vs. Chicago Bulls Second bet: Brooklyn Nets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors As with most point spread odds with a regular 2-team parlay, you would be looking at a potential payout of $260 with an initial wager of $100. It does require both bets to be a winner, or you'll lose the entire stake of $100. The other scenario would be to use the reverse betting strategy. This means you take your initial stake of $100 and turn it into two if bets of $50.Both bets are on the same ticket on the online sportsbook, so you could be taking an if bet in reverse order. That sounds complicated, but with the following example, it does make sense. We take the same betting lines: First bet: Los Angeles Clippers -4 vs. Chicago Bulls Second bet: Brooklyn Nets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors With an if bet, your first bet has to be successful before you wager on the second bet. With the reverse wager, any of the two bets could be successful in betting on the other bet. That could mean double-action or no action at all. As an illustration, let's have a look at the possible combinations: Wager $50 on the Clippers and if they win, push, or cancel you re-bet this $50 on the Nets. Wager $50 on the Nets and if they win, push, or cancel you re-bet this $50 on the Clippers. These are two individual if bets that combine in one reverse wager. The possible outcomes of this bet can be: Both wagers lose, and you lose your initial stake of $100 Both teams win, and you win four times $45.45 = $181.80 One team wins, and the other loses. That means you have a winning bet which nets $45.45, but you moved $50 onto a bet that eventually failed. And you also lost 50 dollars on that same team which was the first leg of a reverse wager. That means you win $45.45, but lost $50 twice, so your total combined loss would be $54.55. As you can see here, it does not necessarily mean that your reverse bet is the perfect choice when you want to minimize your risk. In a sense, it's a mixture of hedge betting and parlay betting, but without the maximum risk that a regular parlay bet brings. How to use reverse bets in your sports betting strategyWith any bet that's not as common as a moneyline bet, you have to be cautious before diving in. Bookmakers love people who are playing with their money as a form of practice, but we want you to be a successful sports bettor who grows his bankroll, not the bookmaker’s one. To get you started the right way, consider these two tips:Keep your risks as low as possibleAs with any multi-event bet, there are tons of risks involved. Similar to a round-robin bet, the reverse bet is another form of parlay betting. You could go several routes with lots of possible outcomes, but the more combinations, the more risk you take. Plus, betting the moneyline underdog on a match is more risk than betting the moneyline favorite, that's a fact. That means when you place a four-team reverse on moneyline underdogs, it's a lot of risk you're taking. Always be aware of the risk, and don't get seduced by the high payout that comes along with the high risk you're considering.Additionally, your first game impacts greatly the outcome of the other matches. Once the first game is a loss, the rest turn into straight bets, and you reduce your potential profit. So, make sure that you know which game to choose first!Research, research, research!The most crucial factor here is taking the time to do your research. There's not a single successful sports bettor who goes solely on his gut-feeling. Any bettor who has been around for a long time either observes sports, does extensive analysis on the matchups, or both combined. It's essential to take this part of the process seriously. It might not be the most enjoyable part of the process, but you'll be glad you put in the effort at the end. With all the information in this article, you're one step closer to being a professional sports bettor. You don’t have to be aware of every single detail and every single type of bet that's out there, but the more you know, the better you can make decisions. If you find the perfect opportunity for a reverse bet, go for it! Always ask yourself which type of bet goes along with the chosen events you're betting on. And take care of your bankroll so you can be around for the long haul.

Ness Notes: Wednesday, Oct 21

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2020

NFL Stock Rising and Falling: Week 7

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2020

The gap between the NFL's best and worst teams continues to grow wider but this week's slate features eight games with pointspreads of 3.5 points or less. Here's a look at three teams on the rise and three on the decline as we head into Week 7.Stock RisingTampa Bay BuccaneersThe Bucs Super Bowl stock has never been higher after a rout of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday. Tom Brady and co. find themselves in a bit of a tricky spot this Sunday, however, as they pack their bags and head across the country to face the Raiders in Las Vegas. Once considered a potential suitor for Brady, the Raiders will be eager to show Tom Terrific that he chose wrong heading to sunny Florida over the bright lights of Vegas. Pittsburgh SteelersThe emergence of rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool has given Big Ben another big-time weapon to work with on offense while the Steelers defense continues to play lights out on the other side of the football. Interestingly, Pittsburgh will be hitting the road this week for the first time since it traveled to face the lowly Giants way back in Week 1. The Steelers will head to Tennessee where it will be an unstoppable force vs. immovable object type of battle between Titans running back Derrick Henry and Pittsburgh's stout run defense.Arizona CardinalsThe Cards are fresh off an absolute annihilation of the Cowboys on Monday Night Football but things will get a whole lot tougher this Sunday as they return home to host the Seahawks. Arizona's defense has really stepped up but let's not lose sight of the fact that it has faced the likes of San Francisco, Washington, Detroit, Carolina, New York (Jets) and Dallas (without Dak Prescott) this season. This will be the Cards defense's biggest test to date.Stock FallingBuffalo BillsThe fact that they play in the AFC East is the Bills only saving grace following back-to-back losses at the hands of the Titans and Chiefs. Perhaps we should give them a pass as those two losses did come at the expense of two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but still, the Bills haven't looked sharp at all - particularly on the defensive side of the football. The good news is, Buffalo finds itself in a true blowup spot against the lowly Jets in New Jersey this Sunday.New England Patriots Any positive momentum the Patriots had been building early in the season seemed to get derailed by Cam Newton's COVID diagnosis. Now the Pats check in having scored a pitiful 22 points over their last two games - both losses against the Chiefs and Broncos. Another likely low-scoring affair awaits this Sunday as they stay in Foxborough to host the 49ers. Newton will need to be in attack mode against an injury-depleted San Francisco defense if New England is going to snap its skid.Jacksonville JaguarsAre the Jaguars back in 'tank mode'? It would certainly appear that way as they haven't posted a victory since Week 1 and have been absolutely ripped to shreds on the defensive side of the football, allowing 30 plus points in each of their last five losses. The good news is they face an up and down Chargers offense this Sunday - perhaps an opportunity to put that streak of futility to rest. The jury is still out as to whether Gardner Minshew can rally the offense to keep pace for four quarters and cover the lofty spread let alone win outright.

2020 NCAA Football Trends Through Week 7

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2020

The NCAA Football season has completed seven weeks. Meanwhile, the Big 10 Conference will play its first games this week. So, it's a good time to take stock of what we've seen so far in this 2020 season.The most noticeable trend has been that underdogs have done very well against the point spread. Overall, underdogs are 80-60-2 ATS. And dogs have done well both at home (33-22-1 ATS) and on the road (47-38-1 ATS). If we go further within the numbers, we find that the biggest underdogs have done the best. NCAA dogs getting more than 13 points have gone 36-19 ATS, including 28-10 ATS in conference games. But underdogs of 13 or less points have only gone 44-41 ATS (21-16-1 ATS at home; 23-25-1 ATS on the road).Perhaps the most noteworthy trend has been to play on underdogs that did not own a winning record (which would include underdogs playing their first game of the season). These puppies have barked the loudest, with a 65-35 ATS record. In contrast, winning teams have gone just 15-25 ATS when installed as an underdog!Teams off an upset loss have not shown a tendency to bounce back this season, as they've gone 8-13 ATS vs. foes not off an upset loss. And teams off an upset win have gone 12-13 ATS vs. foes not off an upset win.Interestingly, rested teams have gone 13-20 ATS vs. unrested opponents (5-10 ATS as a favorite; 8-10 ATS as an underdog).Finally, revenge-minded teams have gone 45-41-1 ATS, with the underdogs going 34-28-1 ATS, but the favorites lagging behind at 11-13 ATS.

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