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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 03/05/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 05, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the UEFA Champions League action.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. The Orlando Magic travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets at 7:10 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point road favorite with the total set at 207.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Boston Celtics play in Cleveland to play the Cavaliers on TNT at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 219. Four NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are in Brooklyn to play the Nets as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 217.5. The Miami Heat host the Detroit Pistons as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 218. The New York Knicks play at home against the Atlanta Hawks as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 216.5. The New Orleans Pelicans visit Toronto to play the Raptors as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.5. The Houston Rockets are at home against the San Antonio Spurs at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 229. The Dallas Mavericks host the Indiana Pacers at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 246. The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Phoenix Suns on TNT at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 9-point favorite with a total of 224.The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Florida Panthers play in New Jersey against the Devils as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins are at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two more NHL games start at 7:37 p.m. ET. The New York Islanders host the St. Louis Blues as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Edmonton Oilers are in Boston to play the Bruins as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Nashville Predators play at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Winnipeg Jets are at home against the Seattle Kraken as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Arizona Coyotes host the Chicago Blackhawks at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games conclude the NHL card at 10:37 p.m. ET. The Vancouver Canucks travel to Los Angeles to play the Kings, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6. The Dallas Stars play in San Jose against the Sharks as a -380 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has 12 games on national television. Six NCAAB games tip off at 7 p.m. ET. Illinois plays at home against Purdue on Peacock as a 2-point favorite with a total of 163.5. Florida is at home against Alabama on ESPN as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 176.5. Virginia Tech is at Louisville on ESPNU as an 8-point road favorite with a total of 152. Clemson hosts Syracuse on ESPN2 as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. Providence travels to Georgetown on FS1 as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 149. Ohio plays at Buffalo on the CBS Sports Network as an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 150.5. Four NCAAB games begin on national television at 11 p.m. ET. Kansas plays at home against Kansas State on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Dayton is at Saint Louis on the CBS Sports Network as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 152.5. Pittsburgh is at home against Florida State on ESPN2 as an 8-point favorite with a total of 148. St. John’s visits DePaul on FS1 as a 19-point road favorite with an over/under of 152. Two nationally-televised NCAAB games start at 11 p.m. ET. San Diego State plays at UNLV on the CBS Sports Network as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 136.5. Boise State hosts Nevada on FS1 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143.The knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League continues with two second-leg matches in the Round of 16 at 3 PM ET. Paris Saint-Germain is at Read Sociedad on CBS in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Bayern Munich plays at home against Lazio as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.

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Texas Rangers Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Monday, Mar 04, 2024

Last year's Texas Rangers won 90 games in the regular season. That led to a tie with the Houston Astros atop of the American League West. The Astros held the tiebreaker advantage though which meant that they were the division winners. The teams would settle their differences in a wild 7-game American League Championship Series. You may recall that the road team won all seven games. Texas won the first two, at Houston. The Astros won the next three, at Texas. Then, the Rangers won both Game 6 and Game 7 to advance to the World Series. They had an easier time of things when they got there, as they defeated the Diamondbacks in five games. Pretty good for a team which was projected to win 82 games and finish fourth in their division! So, what will the defending World Series Champions do for an encore? Let's take a closer look. This season, the Rangers are projected to win 89.5 games. They are currently +200 to win the American League West. Once again, they're expected to be in a 3-team race with the Astros and the Mariners. Houston (92.5 wins) and Seattle (86.5 wins) are projected to finish first and third, respectively. The other two teams in the division, the Angels and Athletics, are being given no chance.On paper, the Rangers offseason wasn't very good. They lost Martin Perez, Aroldis Chapman, Mitch Garver, Robbie Grossman and Will Smith. They added Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Andrew Knizner, and Tyler Mahle, while re-signing Travis Jankowski. Importantly, playoff hero Jordan Montgomery remains a free agent. He's proven his worth and wants a long-term deal. As of this writing, Boston appears most likely to sign him. Losing Montgomery will hurt what was already a mediocre, at best, pitching staff. Led by the likes of Corey Seager, the American League MVP runner-up, Marcus Semien, the AL leader and hits and ALCS MVP Adolis García, the Rangers should still have an extremely potent offense. Texas led the American League in both average and home runs, finishing second in third in those categories overall. So, will all that hitting be enough to make up for the potentially suspect pitching? My feeling is that it will not. No team has won consecutive World Series titles for 23 years. As the defending champions, the Rangers are sure to get everyone's "best game." Other teams are going to get up for a series against Texas. World Series champions often take a step backwards after winning it all. The Astros won 90 games last year, after winning it all in 2022. As mentioned, they nearly returned to the World Series. Still, their 90 regular season victories was a far cry from the 106 which they won the previous year. The Final VerdictEverything fell into place for last season's Rangers. That was with dependable southpaw Jordan Montgomery helping to provide quality innings. With Montgomery likely heading to greener pastures and with a bullseye on their backs, it's my opinion that Texas takes a step back this season. Go with the Under 89 wins. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/04/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 04, 2024

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Brooklyn Nets host the Memphis Grizzlies at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 9-point favorite, with the total set at 210 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Bucks play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 5-point favorite as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 228. The Minnesota Timberwolves are at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 14-point favorite with a total of 211.5. The Utah Jazz host the Washington Wizards at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 239.5. The Sacramento Kings play at home against the Chicago Bulls at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 7-point favorite with a total of 227.5. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 237.5. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Vegas Golden Knights travel to Columbus to play the Blue Jackets as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Florida Panthers play in New York against the Rangers as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Philadelphia Flyers host the St. Louis Blues as a -1355 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Boston Bruins as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Colorado Avalanche are at home against the Chicago Blackhawks at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -455 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Calgary Flames host the Seattle Kraken at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.The college basketball schedule has six games on national television. Duke is at North Carolina State on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET. The Blue Devils won for the seventh time in their last eight games after a 73-48 victory as a 10-point favorite against Virginia on Saturday. The Wolfpack lost for the fifth time in their last seven games after a 79-70 loss at North Carolina as an 11-point underdog on Saturday. Duke is a 6-point road favorite with a total of 148.Two NCAAB games are on national television at 9 p.m. ET. Baylor is at home against Texas on ESPN. The Bears won their second straight game with an 82-74 victory against Kansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Longhorns won for the third time in their last four games in an 81-65 victory against Oklahoma State as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 146.Weber State visits Montana State on ESPNU at 9 p.m. ET. The Wildcats won for the eighth time in their last nine games in an 85-58 victory as a 12.5-point favorite against Northern Arizona as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bobcats lost for the sixth time in their last eight games in a 108-104 loss in overtime at Eastern Washington as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday. Weber State is a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 144.5.Matchweek 27 in the English Premier League concludes with one match. Arsenal plays at Sheffield United on the USA Network at 3 p.m. ET as a -2 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

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Seattle Mariners Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Sunday, Mar 03, 2024

The Seattle Mariners went 88-74 last year. A franchise best 21-6 August, which was preceded by a hot 17-9 July, had them in prime position to return to the postseason. Sadly, for Seattle fans, the Mariners couldn't keep it up in September.  They stumbled down the stretch and missed out on the playoffs in rather heart-breaking fashion. The top two teams in their division, Houston and Texas, both made it. Each finished with 90 wins. Will the Mariners take the next step this season? Or, did they miss out on their chance? Let's take a closer look. This season, the Mariners are projected to win 86.5 to 87.5 games, depending on which sports book one uses. They range between about +270 to +300 to win their division. Once again, they're expected to be in a 3-team race with the Astros and the Rangers. Houston (92.5 wins) and Texas (89.5 wins) are projected to finish first and second, respectively. The other two teams in the division, the Angels and Athletics, are being given no chance. The Mariners made a number of offseason moves but none that are likely to move the needle too much. Fans weren't thrilled that they traded Eugenio Suárez to Arizona and they would have liked to see Seattle spend more money to go after some bigger names in free agency. The Mariners maintained their core group of players though and arguably have one of the stronger overall teams in the American League. Paced by their top three starters, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should again have one of the better starting rotations in baseball. In fact, they return all five starters from last year. Remember, Seattle had the best combined ERA (3.74) in the American League last season. Seattle pitchers recorded 18 shutouts in 2023, the most in the big leagues and a franchise record. The Mariners also set a franchise record with 1,459 strikeouts in 901 innings pitched.Pitching is definitely their strength but the Mariners do also have a solid lineup, one which includes their young star Julio Rodriguez. The Mariners signed Mitch Garver in free agency and traded for second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielders Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley. They also strengthened their bullpen by picking up reliever Gregory Santos from Chicago. Those aren't the huge names that some might have wanted but they do make this team better. The Final VerdictHealth always plays a pivotal role in determining how far teams will go and that will be the case for Seattle. The Mariners' starters did log a lot of innings last season and that could potentially be felt this year. Assuming they can stay reasonably healthy, I'm high on this year's team. I expect them to finish with more than 86 wins and at +300 (Draft Kings) I believe they've got a real shot at winning the division. Get excited Seattle fans, a return to the playoffs seems more likely than not. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/03/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Mar 03, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. The Dallas Mavericks host the Philadelphia 76ers on ABC at 1:10 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite, with the total set at 238 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Golden State Warriors on ABC as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 231.5. The Los Angeles Clippers travel to Minnesota to play the Wild as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 219.5. Two NBA games start at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Orlando Magic are at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. The Toronto Raptors host the Charlotte Hornets as an 8-point favorite with a total of 222.5. Two more NBA games begin at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the New York Knicks on ESPN as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 212.5. The Indiana Pavers play in San Antonio against the Spurs as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 244.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder are in Phoenix to play the Suns on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 236.The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. The Washington Capitals are at home against the Arizona Coyotes at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings host the New Jersey Devils on TNT at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Wild play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -345 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets visit Buffalo to play the Sabres as a -155 money-line road favor with an over/under of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks play in Anaheim against the Ducks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The college basketball schedule has six games on national television. Connecticut hosts Seton Hall on CBS at noon ET as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 138. Maryland plays at home against Indiana on CBS at 2 p.m. ET as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Drake is at home against Bradley on ESPN2 at 3:30 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite with a total of 146.5. Ohio State hosts Michigan on CBS at 4 p.m. ET as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143. Memphis plays at home against UAB on ESPN2 at 5:30 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 158. Colorado is at home against Stanford on FS1 at 9 p.m. ET as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 156.Matchweek 27 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. Bournemouth is at Burnley on the USA Network at 8 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Manchester City hosts Manchester United at 10:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/02/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 02, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. The Brooklyn Nets host the Atlanta Hawks at 3:10 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite, with the total set at 220 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Miami Heat play at home against the Utah Jazz at 5:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225. The Memphis Grizzlies are at home against the Portland Trail Blazers at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 209. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Denver Nuggets on ABC at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the Houston Rockets at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 231. The National Hockey League has 13 games on its slate. The Carolina Hurricanes are home against the Winnipeg Jets at 12:37 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favor with an over/under of 5.5. The Florida Panthers travel to Detroit to play the Red Wings on ABC at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at Seattle against the Kraken at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 6:07 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche are in Nashville to play the Predators as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Minnesota Wild visit St. Louis to play the Blues as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Vegas Golden Knights play in Buffalo against the Sabres as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Philadelphia Flyers host the Ottawa Senators as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -250 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are home against the New York Rangers as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Boston Bruins are in New York to play the Islanders at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two more NHL games start at 7:37 p.m. ET. The Columbus Blue Jackets travel to Chicago to play the Blackhawks as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Dallas Stars host the San Jose Sharks as a -470 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has 18 games on major national television. Three NCAAB games on major national television tip-off at noon ET. South Carolina is at home against Florida on ESPN as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Florida State plays at Georgia Tech on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 149. Providence hosts Villanova on Fox as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 135. Baylor plays at home against Kansas on ABC at 1 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 145. Kentucky is at home against Arkansas on CBS at 1:30 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite with a total of 166.5. Two more NCAAB games on national television begin at 2 p.m. ET. Arizona hosts Oregon on ESPN as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 158. Texas plays at home against Oklahoma State on ESPN2 as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Creighton is at home against Marquette on Fox at 2:30 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155. Four NCAAB games are on major national television at 4 p.m. ET. North Carolina hosts North Carolina State on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 153. Auburn plays at home against Mississippi State as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5. Washington is at home against USC on CBS as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 154.5. Two more NCAAB games begin on national television at 6 p.m. ET. Duke hosts Virginia on ESPN as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 123.5. Texas Tech is at West Virginia on ESPN2 as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 152.5. Three NCAAB games on major national television start at 8 p.m. ET. Houston travels to Oklahoma on ESPN2 as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 130. Purdue plays at home against Michigan State on Fox as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Alabama is at home against Tennessee on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 170.5. Two more NCAAB games are on major national television at 10 p.m. ET. Saint Mary’s hosts Gonzaga on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141. UC-Irvine plays at home against Long Beach State on ESPN2 as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 155. Matchweek 27 in the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Six matches start at 10 a.m. ET. Chelsea plays at Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Everton is at home against West Ham United on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion is at Fulham in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 3. Newcastle United hosts Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Tottenham plays at home against Crystal Palace as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Aston Villa visits Luton Town on the USA Network at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/01/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 01, 2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Detroit to play the Pistons as a 9-point road favorite, with the total set at 221.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Philadelphia 76ers host the Charlotte Hornets as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors play in Toronto against the Raptors as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 237. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Dallas Mavericks on ESPN. The Celtics are on a nine-game winning streak after their 117-99 victory against Philadelphia as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Mavericks ended their two-game losing streak with a 136-125 victory as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston is a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 237. Three NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 208.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Sacramento Kings as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Indiana Pacers as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 238.5. The Milwaukee Bucks are in Chicago to play the Bulls on ESPN at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Bucks are on a three-game winning streak after their 123-85 victory at home against Charlotte as a 14-point road favorite on Tuesday. The Bulls won for the second time in their last three games in a 132-123 upset victory against Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee is a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 238.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against the Washington Wizards at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite with a total of 240.5.The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Ottawa Senators host the Arizona Coyotes as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Philadelphia Flyers visit Washington to play the Capitals as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The New Jersey Devils play in Anaheim to play the Ducks at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has five games on national television. Ohio plays at home against Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network at 6 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 150. Marist is at home against Fairfield on ESPNU at 7 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Dayton is at Loyola-Chicago on ESPN2 at 9 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 136.5. Nevada is at home against Fresno State on the CBS Sports Network at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 15.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Utah State hosts the Air Force on FS1 at 11 p.m. ET as a 16-point favorite with a total of 138.

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IUPUI-Fort Wayne: Sneaky Good When Playing on the Road

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

IUPUI-Fort Wayne has been sneaky good when playing on the road this season. Going into their clash against Wright State on Wednesday, Purdue-Fort Wayne had a 9-6 record away from home with a +5.4 net point differential. They had beaten Northern Kentucky on the road in conference play who currently had an 11-7 record in the Horizon League. They also beat Oakland on the road in December, and the Grizzlies went into the day in first place in the Horizon League with a 14-5 record. Their previous victory before their loss on Sunday was at Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Friday, 85-59, and the Phoenix have a 12-6 record in the conference. The Mastodons had covered the point spread in twenty-eight of their last forty-one games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog from 3.5 to 6 points. Purdue-Fort Wayne went into that game having won two games in a row before a 96-88 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. The Mastodons had covered the point spread in fifteen of their last twenty games on the road after playing their previous game on the road. They were playing a Raiders team that appeared ripe for a letdown. Wright State was on a three-game winning streak in Horizon League play after sweeping their two-game road trip last week. The Raiders won at Detroit, 93-78, last Thursday before a 96-75 upset win at Oakland as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. They were coming back home where they had an 8-5 record yet they have covered the point spread just twice in their last seven games when playing at home with the oddsmakers installing the over/under from 160 to 169.5. Wright State had not covered the point spread in their last four games after winning their two previous games on the road, and they had covered the point spread only three times in their last fifteen games at home after winning two games in a row on the road. They have covered the point spread in nine of their last thirty-one games after a victory on the road where they scored 85 or more points. The Raiders had made 53.3% or more of their shots in three straight games, yet they had covered the point spread in three of their last fourteen games after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. Wright State had covered the point spread just once in their last five games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.These were the reasons why we chose Purdue-Fort Wayne as our NCAA-B Horizon League Underdog of the Year in their matchup with Wright State on Wednesday. The Mastodons started strong by taking a 39-34 lead going into halftime. The Raiders quickly battled back in the second half by scoring the first eight points to take a 42-39 lead. Yet Purdue-Fort Wayne then went on an 8-2 run over their own to retake a three-point lead. It was a close game the rest of the way before the game went into overtime after a 74-74 deadlock after regulation time. The Mastodons outscored Wright State in overtime, 5-3, to pull the 79-77 upset. IUPUI-Fort Wayne will not have a flashy record going into the Horizon League tournament coming up next week. Yet their ability to play well in hostile environments could help them be a dangerous underdog in that tournament, especially if they get some breaks with their draw. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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How the Oddsmakers Hinted at the Super Bowl Under

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

The oddsmakers initially installed the over/under for the 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl showdown at 47.5. A week later on the Monday before the big game, the total had remained stuck at 47.5 in most shops, although there were a few 48s out there as of this writing. We at Team Del Genio thought the oddsmakers were subtly projecting a lower-scoring game. The Team went “all-in” with our NFL Total of the Year with the under. Below is much of our reasoning for that call.The 2022 Super Bowl between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals had a closing over/under number in the 47.5 range, and that final score finished under the total with the Rams’ 23-20 victory. The 2024 Super Bowl total was on pace to be tied with that year’s game as the lowest over/under in a Super Bowl since the 2016 game between Denver and Carolina in Peyton Manning’s final season with the Broncos' elite defense leading the way to a 24-10 victory. The oddsmakers installed the over/under in the 43.5 range in that game. In the seven Super Bowls since, the oddsmakers had set the over/under in the 50s five times. Yet three of the last five final scores in the Super Bowl have seen 43 or fewer combined points scored. In recent years, the expectation of higher-scoring games in a league that had leaned into the offensive side of the ball had not always matched up with the reality of the two teams competing in the big game. From this background, this rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl seemed set up to see fewer points than the 51 combined points scored in Kansas City’s 31-20 victory. Patrick Mahomes won his first Super Bowl in that game, and he had since picked up a second championship ring in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory against Philadelphia last year. While many of the core players and coaches remain from that 2020 team, wide receiver Tyreek Hill is gone. This Kansas City team was the least explosive in Mahomes' career as their starting quarterback. They were only averaging 22.1 points per game going into the Super Bowl, and that number dropped to 21.0 points per game when they were playing away from Arrowhead Stadium. Yet the biggest difference between those previous Super Bowl teams and this one had been on the other side of the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs now had one of the best defenses in the league as they were holding their opponents to 16.8 points per game. They had held their three playoff opponents to 13.7 points per game and 323 yards per game. The Super Bowl was being played at Allegiant Field in Las Vegas which has a grass surface. Kansas City had played twelve of their last fourteen games under the number when playing on grass. The challenge of facing the powerful 49ers offense was already going to be stiff. San Francisco averaged 28.9 points per game and 6.8 yards per play going into the game. Yet the Chiefs had played six straight unders against teams who average 6.0 or more yards per play. This 49ers team had replaced Jimmy Garopollo with Brock Purdy at quarterback and added Christian McCaffrey at running back since that 2020 Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan was still searching for his first Super Bowl victory having also lost the big game when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in 2017. Yet in Shanahan’s last eight playoff games as the 49ers head coach, six of those games finished under the number. With the offense now centered around McCaffrey, Shanahan seemed content with more of a ball-control offense that runs time off the clock. They had the ball on offense for over 32 minutes against Detroit in the NFC championship game, and it was his fear of losing momentum to the Niners' grinding attack in the second half that Lions head coach Dan Campbell said motivated his controversial decisions to go for first downs and extend potential touchdown drives in those two failed fourth down attempts in that game. The San Francisco defense had seen two new defensive coordinators since Robert Saleh called the plays in that 2020 Super Bowl. The 49ers' current defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is a veteran in the league who had previously been the head coach for Arizona. The unit is stacked with first-team All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, second-team All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward, and last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa at tight end. The 49ers were allowing only 18.4 points per game and 313 yards per game. The 49ers had had three of their last four games and nine of their last fourteen games end with 45 or fewer combined points scored. Kansas City has had eight of their last nine and eleven of their last thirteen games end with 46 or fewer combined points scored. Our handicapping for the Super Bowl was on point, yet the result remained very much in doubt with the possibility of overtime looming. With the score tied 19-19 at the end of regulation time, it was not difficult to see how the game could end finishing over the number. Yet San Francisco’s opening drive stalled in the red zone, and their ensuing field goal made the score 22-19 with 41 combined points. We were rooting for the Chiefs now since a touchdown would end the game at 25-22, just under the 47.5s. Rooting for a 49ers turnover would be another good result since it would end the game. A Kansas City field goal would make a subsequent touchdown a crushing blow. Fortunately, Mahomes worked his magic again to engineer a winning touchdown drive. We survive overtime and win our NFL Total of the Year!                                                                                          Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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The Limitations of Season-Long NFL Power Ratings Exposed (again) as Kansas City Wins the Super Bowl (again)

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

The so-called “sharps” were on the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl— but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. We were on Kansas City — the Chiefs were our side for our 2023-24 NFL Game of the Year. Our reasoning was rewarded with Kansas City’s 25-22 victory. I concluded at the time that the sharps and the computer models were failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs had been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It was chip time now after reaching the Super Bowl again— so I was confident that the Chiefs would be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season. This team was different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group had faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team had found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it was chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possessed the best defense in the Mahomes era — they went into the Super Bowl holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They faced a San Francisco team that had good underlying numbers — but what if they were being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia did not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes appeared to be a mismatch — and it was Mahomes making big plays down the stretch while Purdy missed on some wide-open receivers in the second half of the Super Bowl. I had always appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that was no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. Spagnuolo revealed after the Super Bowl that he assigned two defensive players to act as spies to guard against his scrambling skills that played such an important role in their comeback victory against Detroit. Take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completed 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left. Spagnuolo would be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson seemed likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game. No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but I concluded that Kansas City had the edge in both coaching and with their defensive unit. The 49ers had the better skill position players — but then there was still the Mahomes versus Purdy matchup to consider. Even if Purdy was as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it was another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers were outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game going into the Super Bowl — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. We also correctly took the Under in this game in our 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. Those results made it three straight Super Bowls where we swept the side and total. Best of luck — Frank.

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Anatomy of a 40-1 Winner/Handicapping Jake Knapp at the PGA Mexico Open

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

After a winning campaign with head-to-head props in the first seven PGA Tour events in 2024, we were able to score a big win at the PGA Mexico Open on Jake Knapp at 40-1 just in time before the tour moves to the East Coast. The rookie took a four-shot lead into the final round — but he did not make it easy on us as he was shaky with his driver early on and eventually gave that lead away after Sami Valimaki caught up to his score, helped by an early eagle on a Par 4. But then Valimaki caught some jitters while Knapp was steady with his chipping and putting. And while Knapp only hit two fairways off the tee all day, he pulled away for a two-stroke victory at 19-under par.  Knapp was not my initial choice for the Long Shot Bet for our PGA Mexican Open Betting Report which always includes a Best Bet and Top Overlay Bet as well. The professional golfer outside the top ten favorites was considering at first glance was Maverick McNealy at 50-1 odds. But I dove deeper into my appreciation of Knapp, he elevated to my top Long Shot choice while being listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Knapp came into the week as the early front-runner to win the PGA Rookie of the Year honor after a tie for third place at Torrey Pines last month before a tie for 28th place at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. What was exciting about Knapp was his potential length off-the-tee. Knapp has been focusing on ball speed off his club — and he was getting a whopping 186 miles per hour off his driver. He ranked 22nd on the tour in Driving Distance going into the week — and his troubles with accuracy would be mitigated with the wide fairways and the forgiving rough at Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course.Knapp has a good overall game. In those last two tournaments, he had gained more than 4.0 strokes per round in Approach the Green — and he had also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. An intriguing aspect with Knapp for the PGA Mexico Open was his great pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour last year when he finished off with ten straight-made cuts. With most of the top-level pros bypassing this event on a resort course, a Korn Ferry veteran like Knapp was well-versed in scoring low numbers on a course like this. In completing the west coast swing that week, the PGA Tour was moving to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosted this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. It is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s were at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s played at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways were wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals had to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough had grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remained playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. Besides cashing the 40-1 Long Shot ticket, we also cashed with Knapp in his Round One head-to-head props with Ryo Hisatsune. Hisatune had three top-33 finishes before missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He is a wizard around the green — but that is not a skill that would make a big difference at this event. He ranks just 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2024 — and Tony Finau led the field in that metric the last two years en route to finishing in first and second place at this event. For comparison's sake, Knapp ranked 35th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. After a great close to the 2023 PGA Tour with first-place finishes in the final two events (concluding with the PGA Tour Championship in August — I take the fall events off to use that handicapping time on football), cashing the 40-1 ticket puts us up 16 units after the first eight events (assuming everyone plays three units per week on the Best Best, the Top Overlay Bet, and the Long Shot Bet) — meaning we have five straight weeks of free rolls to build the golf-specific bankroll. We go into the PGA Cognizant Classic on a 15 of 24 (63%) PGA head-to-head run with prop bets with our three targeted golfers as well. With THE Players Championship and the Masters just around the corner in the next six weeks, let’s keep it rolling!Best of luck — Frank.

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2024 MLB Futures: Rookie of the Year Award

by Sean Murphy

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

With Spring Training underway now is the time to start locking in some MLB futures bets as we look ahead to the 2024 season. Here's a look at my predictions for American League and National League Rookie of the Year award winners as we approach the beginning of March. Odds courtesy DraftKings.American LeagueWyatt Langford - Texas Rangers (+600)While Langford's teammate and last October's breakout star Evan Carter is one of the favorites to win the award (along with Orioles phenom Jackson Holliday), I like the value being offered with the Rangers 'other' highly-touted prospect. Langford is expected to be on the Rangers Opening Day roster even if he isn't an every-day player right out of the gate. The outfielder has thrived at every level, most recently scorching a path through the Rangers minor league ranks with a .360 batting average to go along with double-digit home runs and stolen bases last season. While Carter might be the better all-around player, Langford has power to spare (which was on full display during his time with the Florida Gators) and that combined with his speed should turn voters heads as the season goes on. Texas does have a rather crowded outfield and the risk of Langford not getting a ton of playing time in April and May is real. With that said, I prefer not to back the chalk when it comes to this particular award as a lot can happen over the course of a 162-game MLB season, injuries or otherwise. Langford should be in the conversation all season long. National LeagueJackson Chourio - Milwaukee Brewers (+800)Despite the lofty price, Chourio is actually tied for the third-favorite to win this award at several books. A pair of Japanese imports lead the way in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee, with the latter's stock quickly rising. I think Chourio has as good a chance as any at taking home the prize, however. We've already seen the Brewers top prospect flash during Spring Training games. Keep in mind, Milwaukee has a lot invested in the outfielder having locked him up with an eight-year, $82 million contract. There have been whispers that Chourio might not be an every-day player for the Brew Crew early in the season but I expect him to play his way into the starting lineup over the course of the exhibition schedule in March. In the Venezuelan Winter League, Chourio hit .379 across 66 at-bats with seven extra-base hits and three stolen bases. While he only had a cup of coffee at the Triple-A level last year he hit .280 with 22 home runs and 43 steals at Double-A Biloxi. Expect him to make the leap in 2024 and prove to be an bonafide star for the Brewers sooner rather than later. 

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