Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/04/2024

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, May 4, 2024

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +120, Bruins -142; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +120, Bruins -140; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +120, Bruins -145; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  46-26-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Boston Bruins:  47-20-15 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  3-6-1 last 10

Boston Bruins:  4-5-1 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 102 points, a 46-26-10 record overall, and they were 24-11-6 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Boston Bruins in their last game, winning that one at home 2-1. William Nylander scored 2 goals for them in that game. Morgan Rielly led the team in assists with 2 while William Nylander led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 23 shots with 22 saves and a .957 save percentage. Their offense has scored 303 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 263 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.

The Bruins are entering this game with 109 points, a 47-20-15 record overall, and they were 24-11-6 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, losing that one on the road 2-1. Morgan Geekie scored 1 goal for them in that game. Kevin Shattenkirk and James van Riemsdyk each led the team in assists with 1 while David Pastrňák led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Jeremy Swayman was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 26 shots with 24 saves and a .923 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 267 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 224 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Bruins listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 7 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Bruins and the 3rd seeded Maple Leafs in the Atlantic Division for Round 1 of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. This series is all tied up 3-3 after the Leafs won game 6 of this series on their home ice. The Bruins haven't looked bad in the last 2 games of this series with their good defensive play, but their offense has died down completely and it has allowed the Leafs to come back in this series. The Bruins have lost 2 games in a row now and they have to be having some flashbacks from last season when they had the 3-1 series lead over the Florida Panthers in the 1st round but went on to lose that series. The Leafs have looked a lot better in their road games this season, but the Bruins have also looked great on home ice so this is going to be a hard fought battle with both teams facing elimination now. As good as the Leafs have been in their road games this year, the Bruins still have the advantage being on home ice and even though they are having some flashbacks of their collapse last season, the Leafs have come close to winning their playoff series in the 1st round many times over the recent years yet they have fallen short every time. The Leafs also have the specific block of not beating Boston in the playoffs since the 1950's so look for the Bruins to stop the bleeding in this game and finally put the Leafs away here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bruins to win this game. 

Maple Leafs Bruins Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, May 4, 2024 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Bruins 4 Leafs 3.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 53-49 (-27.7 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 14-12 (-11.5 units) on the moneyline off a home win against a division rival. 48-42 (-28 units) on the moneyline after a 2 game unbeaten streak. 7-2 OVER off a close home win by 1 goal. 10-3 OVER after allowing 1 goal or less in 2 straight games. 7-3 OVER in the 7th game of a playoff series.

Boston Bruins: 60-31 (+9.9 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 32-11 (+17.4 units) on the moneyline revenging a road loss versus opponent. 30-13 (+12.4 units) on the moneyline after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game. 11-6 OVER in the first round of the playoffs. 19-10 OVER revenging a loss where the team scored 1 or less goals. 9-5 OVER after 2 or more consecutive losses.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  A. Matthews (C) Ques Sat - Illness. B. McMann (C) Out Indefinitely - Lower Body. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.

Boston Bruins:  D. Heinen (LW) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. A. Peeke (D) Mid May - Finger. M. Poitras (C) out for season - Shoulder. M. Lucic (LW) out for season - Ankle.

"We battled and competed. And Woller was incredible." - William Nylander after their win against the Bruins in game 6 of this series on Thursday.

“Your best players need to be your best players this time of year. I think the effort is tremendous and they need to come through with some big-time plays in big-time moments. “I think (captain Brad) Marchand has done that in the series. Pasta needs to step up.” - Jim Montgomery after his team’s loss against the Leafs in game 6 of this series on Thursday.

LW Bertuzzi, Tyler

C Domi, Max

RW Marner, Mitchell

LD Rielly, Morgan

RD Lyubushkin, Ilya

G Woll, Joseph

LW DeBrusk, Jake

C Zacha, Pavel

RW Pastrnak, David

LD Lohrei, Mason

RD McAvoy, Charlie

G Swayman, Jeremy

Points: A. Matthews (107)

Goals: A. Matthews (69)

Assists: M. Marner (59)

GAA: M. Jones (2.87)

Points: D. Pastrnak (110)

Goals: D. Pastrnak (47)

Assists: D. Pastrnak (63)

GAA: J. Swayman (2.53)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)

Boston Bruins: Jim Montgomery (2nd season)