Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/20/2024

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 20, 2024

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +110, Bruins -130; Over/Under:  6 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +110, Bruins -130; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +110, Bruins -130; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  46-26-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Boston Bruins:  47-20-15 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  5-4-1 last 10

Boston Bruins:  6-4-0 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 102 points, a 46-26-10 record overall, and they were 24-11-6 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, losing that one on the road 6-4. T. J. Brodie, Pontus Holmberg, Ryan Reaves, and John Tavares each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Connor Dewar and David Kämpf each led the team in assists with 2 while Auston Matthews led the team in shots on net in that game with 12. Martin Jones was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 6 goals on 32 shots with 26 saves and a .812 save percentage. Their offense has scored 303 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 263 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.

The Bruins are entering this game with 109 points, a 47-20-15 record overall, and they were 24-11-6 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Ottawa Senators in their last game, losing that one at home 3-1. Pavel Zacha scored 1 goal for them in that game. David Pastrňák and Kevin Shattenkirk each led the team in assists with 1 while Pavel Zacha led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 19 shots with 17 saves and a .895 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 267 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 224 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Bruins listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Bruins and the 3rd seeded Maple Leafs in the Atlantic Division for Round 1 of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bruins have looked really good in their games this season with their 47-20-15 record overall which had them finish in 2nd place of their division in the East. They have looked really good on home ice this year with their 24-11-6 home record and they were right in the race to win the division but let it go in the last week of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Leafs have also looked good in their games this season with their 46-26-10 record overall which had them finish in 3rd place of their division in the East. They have looked better in their road games than they have on home ice this season, going 24-11-6 in their road games, but this is not going to be an easy series for them to win games on the road. The Bruins have had one of the best home records in the NHL going back to last season and they are also a team that the Leafs have struggled with many times in recent years. The Leafs also seem to have a curse of never getting past the 1st round in recent years, so starting this series on the road against their rival doesn't bode well for them. The Leafs have been the better team on offense this season, but the playoffs are a completely different environment and the Bruins have been the better defensive team this season which will be key in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bruins to win this game.

Maple Leafs Bruins Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, April 20, 2024 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Bruins 3 Leafs 2.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 158-105 (-22 units) on the moneyline in all games. 50-46 (-27.8 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 72-54 (-17.3 units) on the moneyline after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. 15-4 UNDER in the 1st game of a playoff series. 9-3 UNDER playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent. 12-6 UNDER after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game.

Boston Bruins: 168-91 (+24.3 in all games. 57-28 (+10.9 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 25-9 (+12.2 units) on the moneyline after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game. 16-9 UNDER off a loss against a division rival. 9-5 UNDER after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game. 

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Domi (C) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. B. McMann (C) Ques Sat - Lower Body. C. Jarnkrok (C) Out indefinitely - Hand. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.

Boston Bruins:  B. Carlo (D) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Brazeau (RW) Out indefinitely - Upper Body. D. Forbort (D) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Poitras (C) out for season - Shoulder. M. Lucic (LW) out for season - Ankle.

“He’s played so tremendously well. I know there’s been a lot of focus on him reaching 70 goals; you kind of lose sight of how well he’s played. The way he’s played these last two games — give him those types of chances and those types of shots, and he could have had 75. It wasn’t meant to be, and that’s OK — 69 is an unbelievable season.” - Sheldon Keefe on Auston Matthews after his team’s loss against the Lightning in their last game of the regular season on Wednesday.

“We didn’t have our best game. We played in the third, didn’t play the first two periods. That’s too late to start playing. Teams are too good. Doesn’t matter who it is. You can’t play one period.” - Brad Marchand after their loss against the Senators in their last game of the regular season on Tuesday.

LW Bertuzzi, Tyler

C Matthews, Auston

RW Marner, Mitchell

LD Brodie, TJ

RD Lyubushkin, Ilya

G Jones, Martin

LW Marchand, Brad

C Coyle, Charlie

RW DeBrusk, Jake

LD Lindholm, Hampus

RD McAvoy, Charlie

G Swayman, Jeremy

Points: A. Matthews (107)

Goals: A. Matthews (69)

Assists: M. Marner (59)

GAA: M. Jones (2.87)

Points: D. Pastrnak (110)

Goals: D. Pastrnak (47)

Assists: D. Pastrnak (63)

GAA: J. Swayman (2.53)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)

Boston Bruins: Jim Montgomery (2nd season)