by Scott Rickenbach
Thursday, Mar 28, 2024NL East Division Preview for MLB 2024
First number is the estimated projected wins per sportsbook odds while the second number is last season’s win total. This is followed by quick information on each team that likely impacts their season.
Atlanta Braves – 101.5 projected wins. Last season 104 wins. How will Chris Sale hold up? How about Reynaldo Lopez transitioning back into the role of starting pitcher. No question this Braves team has a great lineup and is a solid hitting team but their rotation is not as strong as the Phillies. I would say this total is pegged a little high and the Braves get into the low to mid 90s.
Miami Marlins – 78.5 projected wins. Last season 84 wins. The Marlins were 33-14 in one-run games last season which is crazy for a team that finished just a tick over .500 on the season. Give them credit for that but it also means a regression is likely. Simply put, this is a mediocre lineup that won a lot of games with pitching last season. I respect their bullpen and they have a decent rotation but now will miss Sandy Alcantara – out for season – due to Tommy John surgery. Will putting AJ Puk in the rotation pay off or it will hurt the bullpen more than it helps the rotation! It has been a few years since he was a starter! No miracle playoff berth again for this team like they had last season.
New York Mets – 81.5 projected wins. Last season 75 wins. Sterling Marte struggled this spring and Mets are hoping his bat comes back now that he’s healthier. This remains to be seen. The Mets should improve some this season after underachieving last season. They still have a solid lineup. The concern with New York is the pitching. Their rotation has many question marks and now Senga is likely out until mid-May. The bullpen in much better shape this season with Edwin Diaz back but Mets not on par with Braves or Phillies and a .500-type season appears likely.
Philadelphia Phillies – 89.5 projected wins. Last season 90 wins. The Phillies are projected by many to finish about a dozen wins behind the Braves in the NL East. However, this team arguably has the better rotation and bullpen and they certainly have a potent lineup just like Atlanta does. That said, this number seems to be a bit low in terms of their projected win total. The Phillies should challenge Atlanta for the division. The Phillies defense improved as the season went on last year. Also, Trea Turner got hot in early August and was a different player after that. He is part of a lineup that is loaded with power and many solid hitters. It is a dangerous lineup that goes deeper than most MLB teams.
Washington Nationals – 65.5 projected wins. Last season 71 wins. The Nationals showed improvement last year but could regress some this season. This happens often when a team is going through a rebuild. Also, the Nationals just have so many question marks in the lineup and rotation and bullpen. So many unprovens and unknowns. Will be looking to fade this team quite a bit when the prices are low enough and in the right situations.
First number is the estimated projected wins per sportsbook odds while the second number is last season’s win total. This is followed by quick information on each team that likely impacts their season.
Atlanta Braves – 101.5 projected wins. Last season 104 wins. How will Chris Sale hold up? How about Reynaldo Lopez transitioning back into the role of starting pitcher. No question this Braves team has a great lineup and is a solid hitting team but their rotation is not as strong as the Phillies. I would say this total is pegged a little high and the Braves get into the low to mid 90s.
Miami Marlins – 78.5 projected wins. Last season 84 wins. The Marlins were 33-14 in one-run games last season which is crazy for a team that finished just a tick over .500 on the season. Give them credit for that but it also means a regression is likely. Simply put, this is a mediocre lineup that won a lot of games with pitching last season. I respect their bullpen and they have a decent rotation but now will miss Sandy Alcantara – out for season – due to Tommy John surgery. Will putting AJ Puk in the rotation pay off or it will hurt the bullpen more than it helps the rotation! It has been a few years since he was a starter! No miracle playoff berth again for this team like they had last season.
New York Mets – 81.5 projected wins. Last season 75 wins. Sterling Marte struggled this spring and Mets are hoping his bat comes back now that he’s healthier. This remains to be seen. The Mets should improve some this season after underachieving last season. They still have a solid lineup. The concern with New York is the pitching. Their rotation has many question marks and now Senga is likely out until mid-May. The bullpen in much better shape this season with Edwin Diaz back but Mets not on par with Braves or Phillies and a .500-type season appears likely.
Philadelphia Phillies – 89.5 projected wins. Last season 90 wins. The Phillies are projected by many to finish about a dozen wins behind the Braves in the NL East. However, this team arguably has the better rotation and bullpen and they certainly have a potent lineup just like Atlanta does. That said, this number seems to be a bit low in terms of their projected win total. The Phillies should challenge Atlanta for the division. The Phillies defense improved as the season went on last year. Also, Trea Turner got hot in early August and was a different player after that. He is part of a lineup that is loaded with power and many solid hitters. It is a dangerous lineup that goes deeper than most MLB teams.
Washington Nationals – 65.5 projected wins. Last season 71 wins. The Nationals showed improvement last year but could regress some this season. This happens often when a team is going through a rebuild. Also, the Nationals just have so many question marks in the lineup and rotation and bullpen. So many unprovens and unknowns. Will be looking to fade this team quite a bit when the prices are low enough and in the right situations.
