Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/04/2024

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, May 4, 2024

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +4.5, Nuggets -4.5; Over/Under:  207.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +4.5, Nuggets -4.5; Over/Under:  207.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +4.5, Nuggets -4.5; Over/Under:  207.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  56-26 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

Denver Nuggets:  57-25 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  7-3 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  8-2 last 10

The Timberwolves are entering this game with a 56-26 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 26-15 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns in their last 4 games. In their last game against the Suns in game 4 of that series, Anthony Edwards led the team in points in that game with 40 while Karl-Anthony Towns was next on the team with 28 points. Mike Conley Jr. led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 46.1% from the field, 41.7% from 3-point range, and 80.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 106.5 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 44-40-2 this season and their O/U record is 44-41-1.

The Nuggets are entering this game with a 57-25 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 33-8 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game. Jamal Murray led the team in points in that game with 32 while Michael Porter Jr. was next on the team with 26 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 20. They were 47.2% from the field, 42.1% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.6 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 40-45-2 this season and their O/U record is 36-51.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Nuggets and the 3rd seeded Timberwolves for Round 2 of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. The Nuggets have looked great in their home games all season with their 33-8 home record which was one of the best home records in the entire NBA this season. They beat the Lakers in their last series in 5 games and this time they weren't able to sweep them, but they closed out the series with a good performance at home and they will be looking to do the same here. The Timberwolves have been hot in these playoffs since they swept the Suns in the 1st round and they haven't been a bad road team this year either, but now they are getting a much tougher opponent in this round and they are due for a loss, having not lost a game in the playoff so far. These two teams know how to play against each other as they are division rivals and the Nuggets actually won the last game they faced each other in which was in Denver and right before the playoffs started too. The Nuggets won that game by 9 points and that was a game both teams needed to win since they were both fighting for the number 1 seed in the West at the time so that game had huge implications. The Nuggets showed up in that game on their home court when they needed to and the defending champions are going to bring their best effort to knock the Timberwolves down a peg after the T-Wolves just swept their last opponent. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game. 

Timberwolves Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, May 4, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 113 Timberwolves 106.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 4-10 ATS after a win by 6 points or less. 2-6 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins. 13-6 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs. 17-7 UNDER revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points. 9-4 UNDER when playing with 3 or more days rest.

Denver Nuggets: 22-13 ATS as a # 2 seed in the playoffs. 11-6 ATS when playing with 3 or more days rest. 28-18 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 28-19 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive unders. 8-2 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  J. Clark (SG) Out indefinitely - Achilles.

Denver Nuggets:  V. Cancar (SF) out for season - Knee.

“Everybody has their role, everybody has each other's back. I know it sounds corny, but it's just next man up, even with the coaching staff.” - Micah Nori after his team’s win against the Suns in game 4 of their series in Round 1 on Sunday, sweeping the Suns in their series 4-0.

“That kid’s a warrior, man. The bigger the moment, the kid just continues to shine.” - Michael Malone on Jamal Murray after his team’s win against the LA Lakers in game 5 of their series in Round 1 on Monday, winning their series against the Lakers 4-1.

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: A. Edwards (25.9)

APG: M. Conley (5.9)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (12.9)

PPG: N. Jokic (26.4)

APG: N. Jokic (9)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (12.4)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (4th season)

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (9th season)