Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/24/2024

by Rod Pearson

Monday, Apr 22, 2024
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, MA 
Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +15, Celtics -15; Over/Under:  207.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +15, Celtics -15; Over/Under:  207.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +14.5, Celtics -14.5; Over/Under:  207.5 points

Season Record

Miami Heat:  46-36 (2nd place, Southeast Division)
Boston Celtics:  64-18 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Recent Form
Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10
Boston Celtics:  8-2 last 10


Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Preview and Analysis


The Heat are entering this game with a 46-36 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 24-17 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Boston Celtics in their last game. Bam Adebayo led the team in points in that game with 24 while Delon Wright was next on the team with 17 points. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyler Herro each led the team in assists in that game with 4 while Nikola Jović and Bam Adebayo each led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 46.9% from the field, 32.4% from 3-point range, and 100% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 108.4 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 42-41-2 this season and their O/U record is 36-49.



The Celtics are entering this game with a 64-18 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 37-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Charlotte Hornets, the Washington Wizards, and the Miami Heat in their last game. Jayson Tatum led the team in points in that game with 23 while Derrick White was next on the team with 20 points. Jayson Tatum led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Jayson Tatum led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 47.6% from the field, 44.9% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.2 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 42-36-5 this season and their O/U record is 43-40.


Heat vs Celtics Prediction

The current betting odds have the Celtics listed as a 15 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 2 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for Round 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics have a 1-0 series lead in the series after winning game 1 on their home court. The Celtics have looked great in their games all season with their 64-18 record overall which was the best record in the entire NBA, and they also looked great on their home court with their 37-4 home record. They were the only team in the NBA this regular season to win over 60 games and they also had the best home record in the entire NBA too. They had no problems at all in the 1st game as they beat the Heat by 20 points and they have more momentum on their side now with 3 wins in a row. The Celtics didn't have much to play for in their final game of the season as they were the best team in the NBA, already locking up everything they needed to, but that didn't stop them from winning games in that last week as they are still 8-2 in their last 10 games, making them the hotter team coming into this one. The Heat have had to fight all week just to get to this series since they were in the play-in tournament, even losing the 1st game to the 76ers before winning the 2nd game against the Bulls, but they also lost Jimmy Butler in that game against the 76ers. They had enough to beat the Bulls without Butler and get to this game, but they showed in the 1st game of this series that they are no match for the best team in the NBA without their best player on the court, especially being in Boston's house too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Celtics to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Celtics Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, April 24, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Celtics 117 Heat 96.
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NBA Betting Trends


Miami Heat: 5-13 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent. 1-7 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. 6-3 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5. 6-0 OVER in the 2nd game of a playoff series. 17-9 OVER revenging a same season loss vs opponent.

Boston Celtics: 8-3 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 24-16 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 26-18 ATS in the 2nd game of a playoff series. 21-12 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points. 12-6 OVER against Southeast division opponents. 24-14 OVER after 1 or more consecutive unders.

Key Injuries


Miami Heat:  J. Butler (PF) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Rozier (PG) Out indefinitely - Neck. J. Richardson (SG) out for season - Shoulder.

Boston Celtics:  L. Kornet (C) Out indefinitely - Calf.


Notable Quotes


“Boston controlled this game from the tip. They won the big muscle areas. Definitely won the 3-point line and the majority of the areas in between.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Celtics in game 1 of this series on Sunday.


“There was a four or five-minute stretch when we didn't handle it well, but I think the other 42-43 minutes — that's the recipe." - Joe Mazzulla after his team’s win against the Heat in game 1 of this series on Sunday.


Starting Lineups


Miami Heat
PG Tyler Herro
SG Duncan Robinson
SF Jaime Jaquez Jr.
PF Nikola Jovic
C Bam Adebayo

Boston Celtics
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Derrick White
SF Jaylen Brown
PF Jayson Tatum
C Kristaps Porzingis

Statistical Leaders


Miami Heat
PPG: J. Butler (20.8)
APG: T. Rozier (5.6)
Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10.4)

Boston Celtics
PPG: J. Tatum (26.9)
APG: D. White (5.2)
Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.1)

Coaches:
Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (16th season)
Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (2nd season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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