by Rod Pearson
Sunday, Apr 28, 2024
Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Monday, April 29, 2024
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Where to Watch: TNT, MAX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Lakers +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under: 218.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Lakers +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under: 218.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Lakers +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under: 218.5 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Lakers: 47-35 (3rd place, Pacific Division)
Denver Nuggets: 57-25 (2nd place, Northwest Division)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Lakers: 5-5 last 10
Denver Nuggets: 7-3 last 10
Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Preview and Analysis
The Lakers are entering this game with a 47-35 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 19-21 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Denver Nuggets in their last game. LeBron James led the team in points in that game with 30 while Anthony Davis was next on the team with 25 points. Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Anthony Davis led the team in rebounds with 23. They were 52.2% from the field, 30.8% from 3-point range, and 83.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 118 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 117.4 PPG against them. The Lakers have an ATS record of 42-46 this season and their O/U record is 48-39-1.
The Nuggets are entering this game with a 57-25 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 33-8 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 33 while Michael Porter Jr. was next on the team with 27 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 14 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 44.8% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 84% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.6 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 40-44-2 this season and their O/U record is 36-50.
Lakers vs Nuggets Prediction
The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Nuggets and the 7th seeded Lakers for Round 1 of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. The Nuggets have a 3-1 series lead after the Lakers won game 4 of this series on their home court. The Lakers finally got their win against the Nuggets in game 4 after losing 11 games in a row to Denver and now they have avoided the same fate of their playoff series against the Nuggets last season, getting swept by them. The Lakers only won 1 game in this series though and even though it does give them some momentum coming into this one, it won't be enough to win this series. The Lakers have struggled heavily against the Nuggets over the last year and their 1 win in this series also came on their home court. Now they are going back to Denver, still on the verge of elimination here, and once again they will have to deal with the elevation in this game. The Lakers don't have the legs to keep up with the Nuggets in this road game and they haven't even looked that good in road games all season with their losing 19-21 road record. The Nuggets have one of the best home records in the NBA this year with their 33-8 home record and they will close out this series here now that the Lakers got their 1 win in this series to avoid getting swept. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game.
Lakers Nuggets Prediction: Our NBA Pick for Monday, April 29, 2024 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 121 Lakers 107.
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NBA Betting Trends
Los Angeles Lakers: 16-25 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 7-13 ATS after a win by 10 points or more. 8-14 ATS when facing elimination in a playoff series. 28-20 OVER after one or more consecutive overs. 12-7 OVER off an upset win as a home underdog.
Denver Nuggets: 22-12 ATS as a # 2 seed in the playoffs. 9-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. 18-9 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. 12-3 OVER off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. 12-5 OVER when leading in a playoff series.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers: C. Reddish (SF) Ques Mon - Ankle. J. Vanderbilt (SF) Early May - Foot. J. Hood-Schifino (PG) Out indefinitely - Back.
Denver Nuggets: V. Cancar (SF) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We've given ourselves another lifeline, and it's a one-game series for us. Monday's game is the most important game of the season for us, and we understand that.” - LeBron James after their win against the Nuggets in game 4 of this series on Saturday.
“Every huddle, I sounded like a broken record tonight. Every huddle was, ‘Paint, paint, paint.’ (In) Game 3, they had 70 and we found a way to win. Tonight, they had 72. That’s an incredible number. ... I just didn’t think we had the requisite physicality or urgency. This did not seem like a closeout game.” - Michael Malone after his team’s loss against the LA Lakers in game 4 of this series on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Lakers
PG D'Angelo Russell
SG Austin Reaves
SF LeBron James
PF Rui Hachimura
C Anthony Davis
Denver Nuggets
PG Jamal Murray
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF Michael Porter Jr.
PF Aaron Gordon
C Nikola Jokic
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Lakers
PPG: L. James (25.7)
APG: L. James (8.3)
Reb/G: A. Davis (12.6)
Denver Nuggets
PPG: N. Jokic (26.4)
APG: N. Jokic (9)
Reb/G: N. Jokic (12.4)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Lakers: Darvin Ham (2nd season)
Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
