Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/21/2024

by Rod Pearson

Tuesday, Jan 16, 2024
Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Sunday, January 21, 2024
Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch:  CBS


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Chiefs +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Chiefs +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  46 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Chiefs +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under:  46 points

Season Record

Kansas City Chiefs:  11-6 (1st place, AFC West)
Buffalo Bills:  11-6 (1st place, AFC East)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Matt Fargo is on a HOT STREAK in the NFL on an 18-8 NFL RUN for +$9,030 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Recent Form
Kansas City Chiefs:  won their last game at home against the Miami Dolphins 26-7.
Buffalo Bills:  won their last game at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17.


Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis


The Chiefs are entering this game with an 11-6 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 6-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Miami Dolphins 26-7 in the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 23/41 passes for 262 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing yards with 89 and 1 TD. Rashee Rice led the receivers with 130 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Nick Bolton led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while George Karlaftis led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Mike Edwards came away with the only interception for them in that game.
 
 
 
The Bills are entering this game with an 11-6 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 4-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 in the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 21/30 passes for 203 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 79. Dalton Kincaid led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. A.J. Klein led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Greg Rousseau led the defense in sacks with 1. Kaiir Elam came away with the only interception for them in that game.


Chiefs vs Bills Prediction

The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 11-6 record overall which won the AFC East. They had a really rough start to the season and playoffs were even looking bleak at one point, but they have turned things around over the last few weeks and have easily been the hottest team in the NFL lately. They have been playing playoff football since November as they needed to run the table and now they have the home advantage here against a team they beat on the road earlier this season. The Bills have also looked great in their home games all season with their 7-1 home record and they have looked unstoppable lately. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have also looked good this season with their 11-6 record overall which won the AFC West and even though they have looked a lot better in their games lately, they have still been a struggling team this season. They have had the opposite season as the Bills since the Chiefs had a very nice 1st half of the season but things began to fall apart in the 2nd half. Now the Chiefs have looked a lot better over the last few weeks, even beating the Dolphins convincingly in the Wild Card Round, but the Bills have been rolling for over 2 months now and they have too much momentum coming into this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game. 

Chiefs Bills Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 21, 2024 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Bills 24 Chiefs 17.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kansas City Chiefs Buffalo Bills prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NFL predictions and previews.

NFL Betting Trends


Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 6-0 ATS after allowing 9 points or less last game. 12-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 13-5 UNDER in all games. 6-0 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 8-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins.

Buffalo Bills: 3-6 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. 2-7 ATS after 6 or more consecutive wins. 10-5 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 23-14 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 

Key Injuries


Kansas City Chiefs:  W. Morris (OL) Ques Sun - Concussion. J. Ross (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. K. Toney (WR) Ques Sun - Hip. N. Remigio (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot. D. Smith (OT) Out indefinitely - Neck. J. McKinnon (RB) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Cook (S) Out indefinitely - Ankle. S. Moore (WR) Out indefinitely - Knee. B. Thompson (DE) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. P. Wanogho (OT) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. J. Fortson (TE) I-R - Shoulder. N. Johnson (S) I-R - Knee.

Buffalo Bills:  T. Bernard (LB) Ques Sun - Lower Body. R. Douglas (CB) Ques Sun - Knee. T. Rapp (S) Ques Sun - Calf. T. Dodson (LB) Ques Sun - Shoulder. G. Davis (WR) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Shorter (WR) I-R - Hamstring. J. Phillips (DT) Out indefinitely - Wrist. D. Harris (RB) Out indefinitely - Neck. M. Milano (LB) I-R - Leg. T. White (CB) I-R - Achilles. T. Doyle (OT) I-R - Knee. Z. Davidson (TE) I-R - Knee. N. Hines (RB) I-R - Knee.

Notable Quotes


“Butker was phenomenal. That was like kicking a block of ice.” - Andy Reid on Harrison Butker after his team’s win against the Dolphins in their last game. 


“People keep saying that’s what we wanted. We had no call in that. We would have played yesterday, would have played Saturday, would have played Friday, it wouldn’t have mattered. We would have come out here and played when we were told to play.” - Josh Allen after their win against the Steelers in their last game. 


Starting Lineups


Kansas City Chiefs
WR Watson, Justin
WR Valdes-Scantling, Marquez 
WR Rice, Rashee 
TE Kelce, Travis 
QB Mahomes, Patrick 
RB Pacheco, Isiah

Buffalo Bills
WR Diggs, Stefon 
WR Davis, Gabe 
WR Shakir, Khalil  
TE Kincaid, Dalton  
QB Allen, Josh 
RB Cook, James 
FB Gilliam, Reggie

Statistical Leaders


Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: P. Mahomes (4183)
Rushing: I. Pacheco (935)
Receiving: T. Kelce (984)
Touchdowns: I. Pacheco (9)

Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (4306)
Rushing: J. Cook (1122)
Receiving: S. Diggs (1183)
Touchdowns: J. Allen (15)

Coaches:
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (11th season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (7th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.