Europa Conference League Futures (2023/24 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Oct 30, 2023
The Europa Conference League is already through the first 3 matchdays of the group stage and now at the halfway point it is looking a lot clearer of who will be advancing past the group stage when the Europa League drops enter the contest. Considering how there will be stronger teams that drop down from Europa League after the group stage, it is tough for a team to start in this competition and go all the way to the finals to win it. That being said, it can still be done by some very good teams so it is time to see if there are any teams in this group stage who could go all the way to the finals and make that run. 


To Win Outright

Aston Villa +400: Aston Villa is listed as the best choice to win this competition according to the books. Aston Villa is currently leading their group with 6 points after 3 matches and even though they are tied for points with Legia Warsaw, they still have the best team in the group and are likely to win it. Aston Villa has a very good team with a very strong home advantage but they are also one of the better teams in the Premier League. They finished last season in 7th place and are fighting for a top 4 spot right now in the league as well. Aston Villa also has a lot more talent and depth than other teams in this competition so they will be able to endure the long road ahead from the group stage as well as having the talent to beat any drop downs from Europa League. They have a great defense at home and a very potent attack as well and they will be able to overpower most of the teams that play in this competition. They have a very good chance of doing what West Ham did in this competition last season as there is no real team that will be able to challenge them. Aston Villa has the best team in the competition right now and there is a lot of value in them to win at this price. 


Fiorentina +800: Fiorentina is listed as the next best choice to win this competition according to the books. Fiorentina is currently leading their group with 5 points after 3 matches and even though they are tied for points with Ferencvarosi, they have the best team in this group by far and they are likely going to win it. Fiorentina has been very good over the last calendar year as they went on a late surge in Serie A last season to finish in 8th place in the table and they have very few losses in 2023 as well. They have picked up some talent to improve their team as they are fighting for a top 4 spot in Italy this season and they will likely be looking at more in the winter transfer window. They also have a lot of experience on their side as they went all the way to the Conference League Finals last season but lost to West Ham, a team from the Premier League, and now there is a much better team from the Premier League in the competition this year. Fiorentina is the only other team in this competition right now that can withstand any team that drops down from Europa League as well as enduring the long road to the finals. There is definitely some value in Fiorentina to win this competition at this price considering how good they are and the fact they were in the finals last year, but if they have to meet up with Aston Villa at any point then it could be over for them. 


Eintracht Frankfurt +1000: Frankfurt is listed as the next best choice to win this competition according to the books. Frankfurt is currently sitting in 2nd place of their group with 6 points from their 3 matches as PAOK Salonika is leading the group. There is still a chance that Frankfurt comes back to win this group as they do have the most talent of all the teams in this group, but even if they were to win this group, they would still have no shot at winning this competition this year. Frankfurt has not only been struggling a little in this group but they are also off to a bad start in their domestic league which is not a surprise as they did lose some of their key pieces that made them so good last year. They are clearly not the same team and they do not have the depth to make a deep run in this competition as they get to the later stages. They could end up winning their group but there are teams from Europa League that could definitely drop down and knock them out as well as stronger teams in this competition that they might have to face down the road. Frankfurt does not have a real shot at winning this competition and there is no value in them here. 


Fenerbahce +1000: Fenerbahce is listed as the next best choice to win this competition according to the books. Fenerbahce has been in great form this year in all competitions as they currently lead their domestic table in the Turkish Super Lig as well as having 9 points from their 3 matches in this group stage as they lead the group as well. They are definitely a threat to go deep in this competition as they have a lot of talent and depth on their side and can put up a fight with most teams that drop down from Europa League. The problem for them will be that they will eventually run into a much stronger team, even if it is much later in the competition, and they will get knocked out before reaching the finals in the end. Fenerbahce has a very good team but there is no value in them to win this competition. 


Recommendations

 The Europa Conference League is only 3 matches into the group stage but there is still a long way to go to the finals. Out of all the teams in this competition right now, there are really only 2 teams that have a real chance of making a deep run all the way to the finals and winning it all. Fiorentina definitely has some value at +800 as a dark horse as they will pull together to win their group and will only improve as the competition goes on as they have that experience from going to the finals last year, but Aston Villa at +400 still has the most value as they are the best team in the competition and can withstand any team that will drop down from Europa League. Aston Villa at +400 and Fiorentina at +800 both have the most value as both teams could end up in the finals just like last year when Fiorentina played a Premier League side in the finals. 


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