Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/10/2024

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Friday, May 10, 2024

Venue:  Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +4.5, Timberwolves -4.5; Over/Under:  204.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +4.5, Timberwolves -4.5; Over/Under:  204.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +4.5, Timberwolves -4.5; Over/Under:  204.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  57-25 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

Minnesota Timberwolves:  56-26 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  6-4 last 10

Minnesota Timberwolves:  8-2 last 10

The Nuggets are entering this game with a 57-25 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 24-17 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Timberwolves in game 2 of this series, Aaron Gordon led the team in points in that game with 20 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 16 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 34.9% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 72.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.6 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 40-47-2 this season and their O/U record is 36-53.

The Timberwolves are entering this game with a 56-26 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 30-11 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 6 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns 4 times in a row and the Denver Nuggets in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Nuggets in game 2 of this series, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns each led the team in points in that game with 27 while Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid each were next on the team with 14 points. Kyle Anderson led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 50% from the field, 39.4% from 3-point range, and 64.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 106.5 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 46-40-2 this season and their O/U record is 44-43-1.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 4.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Nuggets and the 3rd seeded Timberwolves for Round 2 of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. The Timberwolves have a 2-0 series lead after winning game 2 of this series on the road. The Timberwolves have the Nuggets on the ropes already in this series with a 2-0 series lead after 2 road games. They haven't lost a game in the playoffs yet with their 6-0 record, sweeping the Suns in 4 games in the 1st round. They have looked a lot better in their home games this season too with their 30-11 home record while the Nuggets haven't been as good in their road games. The Nuggets were still 24-17 in their road games though and they did win a road game against the Lakers in the last series. The Nuggets are also the defending champions still, so they are going to throw everything they have at the Timberwolves in this game to win it and cut the series lead in half. The Timberwolves have looked great in the playoffs as they are getting more and more dangerous with each win, but they are due for a loss with 6 wins in a row now and this will not be an easy game as the Nuggets are going to treat it like an elimination game. Even if the Timberwolves win and take a 3-0 series lead, the Nuggets are going to leave everything they have on the court in Minnesota and will fight to keep this a close game even if they lose in the end. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game.

Nuggets Timberwolves Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, May 10, 2024 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 108 Timberwolves 105.

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Denver Nuggets: 12-3 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. 10-4 ATS off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. 6-3 ATS after a combined score of 190 points or less. 6-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5. 8-4 OVER off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more. 23-12 OVER off a home loss.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 9-21 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more. 2-6 ATS after allowing 90 points or less. 4-8 ATS after a combined score of 190 points or less. 12-4 OVER off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. 14-3 OVER after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games. 11-6 OVER after a combined score of 205 points or less.

Denver Nuggets:  R. Jackson (PG) Ques Fri - Ankle. V. Cancar (SF) out for season - Knee.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  R. Gobert (C) Ques Fri - Personal. M. Morris (PG) Ques Fri - Finger. J. Clark (SG) Out indefinitely - Achilles.

"33 teams have come back from 0-2. Five or six teams have done that after losing the first two at home." - Michael Malone after his team’s loss against the Timberwolves in game 2 of this series on Monday.

“We’ve had some really good defensive efforts this year. That has to be right up there with the best of them." - Chris Finch after his team’s win against the Nuggets in game 2 of this series on Monday.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PPG: N. Jokic (26.4)

APG: N. Jokic (9)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (12.4)

PPG: A. Edwards (25.9)

APG: M. Conley (5.9)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (12.9)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (9th season)

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (4th season)