Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/29/2024

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Monday, April 29, 2024

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Celtics -10.5, Heat +10.5; Over/Under:  203 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Celtics -10.5, Heat +10.5; Over/Under:  203 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Celtics -10.5, Heat +10.5; Over/Under:  203.5 points

Boston Celtics:  64-18 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Miami Heat:  46-36 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

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Boston Celtics:  7-3 last 10

Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10

The Celtics are entering this game with a 64-18 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 27-14 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Miami Heat in their last game. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum each led the team in points in that game with 22 while Kristaps Porziņģis was next on the team with 18 points. Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Jayson Tatum led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 47.6% from the field, 29.7% from 3-point range, and 71.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.2 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 43-37-5 this season and their O/U record is 44-41.

The Heat are entering this game with a 46-36 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 22-19 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Boston Celtics in their last game. Bam Adebayo led the team in points in that game with 20 while Nikola Jović and Tyler Herro each were next on the team with 15 points. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Haywood Highsmith each led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 41.6% from the field, 32.1% from 3-point range, and 78.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 108.4 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 43-42-2 this season and their O/U record is 37-50.

The current betting odds have the Celtics listed as a 10.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for Round 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics have a 2-1 series lead after winning game 3 of this series on the road. The Heat managed to stun the Celtics on the road in game 2 as they won outright as a double digit underdog. That win was a huge shock since the Celtics have the best home record in the entire NBA and the Heat were also missing their star player Jimmy Butler, but the Heat have also been worse in their home games this season and they showed it in game 3. The Celtics really made them pay for beating them on their own home court as the Celtics came out and won game 3 by 20 points, holding the Heat to just 84 points. The Heat are already a more defensive team that doesn't put up a ton of points in their games, so having Butler out is even worse for them as they need both his offense and his defensive effort on the court. Without Butler in this series, the Heat are sitting ducks here, especially since the Celtics are still trying to get their revenge from what happened in the playoffs last year. The Celtics already smashed the Heat in game 3 and this game will be no different as the Celtics will take advantage of their opportunity to beat up on an injured Heat team and send this series back to Boston with a chance to close it out. The best way to place a bet here is on the Celtics to cover the spread in this game.

Celtics Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, April 29, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Celtics 112 Heat 84.

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Boston Celtics: 24-17 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 31-19 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or less. 9-4 ATS in the first round of the playoffs. 42-23 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points. 25-14 OVER after 1 or more consecutive unders. 13-6 OVER off a road win by 10 points or more.

Miami Heat: 1-10 ATS as a home underdog. 17-26 ATS in home games. 18-28 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. 5-1 OVER as an underdog of 10 or more points. 8-1 OVER off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. 13-7 OVER after scoring 100 points or less.

Boston Celtics:  None.

Miami Heat:  D. Wright (PG) Ques Mon - Personal. J. Butler (PF) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Rozier (PG) Out indefinitely - Neck. J. Richardson (SG) out for season - Shoulder.

“We didn't make too many adjustments. We played a little bit harder, we played harder and we dictated the physicality and the tempo of the game. It's the simple things that you have to do under a high level of stress, high level of adversity. I thought our guys did a great job of dictating that tonight.” - Joe Mazzulla after his team’s win against the Heat in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

“They took us out of stuff we would like to get to. They were the more physical team. They bodied us, bullied us on screens, got through stuff, distorted screens, everything. ... You have to credit them for that. They were the more physical team, the team with more physicality and force on both ends of the court.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Celtics in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

PG Jrue Holiday

SG Derrick White

SF Jaylen Brown

PF Jayson Tatum

C Kristaps Porzingis

PG Tyler Herro

SG Duncan Robinson

SF Jaime Jaquez Jr.

PF Nikola Jovic

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: J. Tatum (26.9)

APG: D. White (5.2)

Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.1)

PPG: J. Butler (20.8)

APG: T. Rozier (5.6)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10.4)

Coaches:

Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (2nd season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (16th season)