2023 Mountain West Schedule Review

The Mountain West may have some major changes on the horizon but for 2023 the conference retains the same 12 teams. A change for 2023 is eliminating the Mountain and West divisions of recent years as like many conferences, the league will move to a format with no divisions. Each team will still play eight conference games, missing three opponents. There are some big disparities in the schedules due to which teams are missing on the 2023 schedule for each Mountain West team. 

This appears to be a four-team race with Boise State and Fresno State considered the clear favorites in the current marketplace, even with the end of the division format making that championship pairing slightly less likely. Those teams have met four times in the 10 seasons of the MWC Championship game including last season, while at least one of those programs has been involved in the MWC Championship each of the last six seasons. 

Boise State went 8-0 in the regular season last year but lost to Fresno State in the MWC Championship game. The Broncos return good experience and are the current favorites, but the schedule includes missing three teams that were a combined 5-19 last season, unable to rack up wins vs. Hawaii, Nevada, or UNLV this season. That means drawing all the top contenders as Boise State will play at San Diego State and at Fresno State before hosting Air Force in the regular season finale. The Broncos have a difficult non-conference schedule as well playing at Washington, UCF, FCS North Dakota, and at Memphis as a program that has reached 10 or more wins six times in the past nine years should be considered unlikely to reach that mark in 2023 and should not be considered a lock for the MWC title game. 

Fresno State lost to Connecticut early last season without Jake Haener who is now with the Saints. UCF transfer Mikey Keene has some potential at quarterback but Fresno State’s offense is likely to take a significant step back this season. A difficult non-conference schedule with two major conference road games are also ahead for Fresno State and the Bulldogs must play Boise State, San Jose State, and San Diego State all in four weeks in November for a difficult MWC path. Back-to-back road games at Wyoming and at Utah State in October could also be a challenge, though Fresno State does avoid Air Force this season. 

Not getting to play either of the 2022 0-8 MWC teams this season is a disadvantage on the schedule for Air Force though the Falcons do miss Fresno State. Air Force has an incredibly easy non-conference schedule and should be a threat to put up another strong record, but the road schedule in MWC play is difficult and the Falcons have an incredibly challenging travel path late in the season. In the final six games Air Force plays only one home game and they will be away from home in four consecutive weeks with huge mileage, going from Annapolis to Fort Collins to Dallas to Honolulu in succession. The games with San Diego State and Wyoming are at home for a small break in a difficult league path. 

Brady Hoke’s return to San Diego State has been a success even with the team unable to match the great 2021 results last season. This year’s team will play Boise State and Fresno State but both games will be at home where Hoke is 14-5 S/U the past three years. San Diego State is likely to take a few early season losses with a difficult September run playing UCLA and Oregon State back-to-back and then opening the MWC hosting Boise State and playing at Air Force. After an early October bye week, the schedule looks rather favorable with only the season finale hosting Fresno State looking overly formidable as the Aztecs could climb in the standings in November. 

The team getting a lot of attention to breakthrough into the top tier of the MWC this season is Wyoming. Veteran head coach Craig Bohl has provided consistently solid returns for the Cowboys and particularly on defense this year’s team has great potential. The schedule does include facing Fresno State, Air Force and Boise State in three of the first games of the MWC season, however. Wyoming does avoid San Diego State as well as decent San Jose State and Utah State teams for overall a decent draw. Wyoming should be favored in all four games in November and two of the three difficult non-conference games will be at home this season. 

A deeper sleeper in the Mountain West this season is Colorado State, coming off a 3-9 season in 2022. Jay Norvell left Nevada after a strong 2021 season for what seemed like somewhat of a lateral move and last year’s team had roster challenges. This year the group should have much more stability and a second season to develop in Norvell’s offense. Colorado State has winnable games in the non-conference schedule and will face its toughest MWC tests at home hosting Boise State, Air Force, and San Diego State. Fort Collins has not been a difficult place to play, going just 12-19 S/U since Canvas Stadium opened but this looks like a team that has an upset win or two ahead to have a strong shot at bowl eligibility. 

Favorable conference schedules also belong to Hawaii, UNLV, and Nevada this season. Odom steps into a decent situation at UNLV inheriting a competitive 5-7 squad from last season along with a productive quarterback but it is difficult to project improvement for the Rebels in year one of another change. Nevada went through a major coaching and roster upheaval last season and that was displayed in a 2-10 season. The schedule offers some promise as improvement is almost certain for the Wolf Pack, but it is likely not enough to warrant even extreme long shot consideration in the conference race. Hawaii is also in just the second season of a major transition and while avoiding Boise State and Fresno State is a favorable draw, the travel mileage along with a difficult non-conference path in the 13-game path will take a toll.