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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, CFL and NCAAF Previews and Odds - 09/20/2024

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action. Week 3 in NCAAF college football continues with three games between FBS opponents. Syracuse hosts Stanford on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Orange come off a 31-28 upset victory against Georgia Tech as a 3-point underdog on September 7th. The Cardinal beat Cal-Poly by a 41-7 score as a 34.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago. Syracuse is an 8.5-point favorite, with the total set at 56.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Nebraska plays at home against Illinois on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Cornhuskers have won their first three games after a 34-3 victory against Northern Iowa as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. The Fighting Illini are also 3-0 after their 30-9 victory against Central Michigan as a 21-point favorite last week. Nebraska is an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 43. Washington State is at home against San Jose State on the CW at 10:00 p.m. ET. The Cougars have won their first three games after their 24-19 upset win against Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. The Spartans are also unbeaten after their first three games after their 31-10 victory against Kent State as a 16.5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington State is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs host the Washington Nationals at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -165 money-line favorite at BetMG with an over/under of 9. The Cincinnati Reds play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 6:50 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Baltimore Orioles host the Detroit Tigers at 7:05 p.m. ET. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins travel to Boston to play the Red Sox, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 9. The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves play in Miami against the Marlins as a -205 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Texas Rangers are home against the Seattle Mariners at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Three more MLB games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals host the San Francisco Giants as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -265 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals are home against the Cleveland Guardians at 8:15 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees visit Oakland to play the A’s as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres host the Chicago White Sox as a -245 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Colorado Rockies at 10:10 p.m. ET. Week 16 in the Canadian Football League kicks off with two games. The Toronto Argonauts are home against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 53. The Saskatchewan Roughriders play in Calgary against the Stampeders at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 51.

NCAA Football System of the Week

The Florida State Seminoles were ranked #10 in the Associated Press poll to start the season, but have started the season 0-3.  They lost in Dublin, Ireland, 24-21, as a 10.5-point favorite vs. Georgia Tech to kick off the season.  Then, Boston College upset them, 28-13, as a 16.5-point underdog.  And last week, FSU suffered its 3rd straight upset defeat when Memphis went into Tallahassee, and won, 20-12, as a 6.5-point dog.This Saturday, Florida State will look to break into the win column with a victory against California, which is playing its first ACC Conference game.  The Bears are 3-0 this season, with wins over Cal Davis (31-13), Auburn (21-14) and San Diego State (31-10).Florida State has been installed as a 2.5-point home favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with the 3-0 Bears vs. the 0-3 Seminoles.  But be careful.  The games that often look the easiest turn out to be anything but.  And that leads us to our NCAA Football System of the Week.  Not surprisingly, it is a contrarian system.  Since 1980, home teams on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak have gone 55-38 ATS in FBS games vs. foes on a 3-game (or better) win streak, if our home team wasn't getting more than 6 points.Consider playing on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Trying to Make Sense of Kirk Cousins' Start with the Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons ranked 26th in the league last season by averaging only 18.9 points per game despite having an offensive head coach in Arthur Smith. The conclusion that general manager Terry Fontenot made was that Desmond Ridder was not the answer at quarterback and that Smith’s run-first approach was not the best way to utilize the Falcons' talent on offense. While Fontenot hired Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris (who had previously been the defensive coordinator in Atlanta) as the new head coach, he tapped into Sean McVay's coaching tree with Morris bringing along the Rams quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Zac Robinson to be the new offensive coordinator. Fontenot then signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million free agent deal to be the team’s starting quarterback, and then he drafted Michael Penix with the eighth pick in the first round of the NFL draft. Problem solved, right? Finally, recent first-round picks running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts would be unlocked with better offensive schemes and high-end talent at quarterback. Cousins did not play in the preseason as he continued to recover from his Achilles injury that ended his season prematurely last year. Yet in his first game back last week, Cousins looked old and ineffective in the Falcons’ 18-10 upset loss at home to Pittsburgh despite being a 4-point favorite. Cousins only completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards. He threw two interceptions. Perhaps it was just rust that the 36-year-old needed to work off. He was getting accustomed to a new system. Unfortunately, there appeared to be deeper concerns. Cousins barely moved in the pocket. He may not be back to 100% from his leg injury. Or maybe he has lost even more mobility? He was never known for his agility in the pocket. The Steelers’ T.J. Watt had his way with him all game. Yet Robinson’s schemes did not seem to be helping matters. He had Cousins in the shotgun formation for all but one of his snaps. They did not utilize a play-action pass even once, despite that being a staple in McVay’s offenses. He did not throw a pass of 20 or more yards in the air. Perhaps Cousins could flip the switch in his second start for the Falcons for his Monday night game against Philadelphia, despite his notorious record in prime-time games. He had lost ten of his thirteen starts on Monday Night Football with fourteen interceptions. He has thrown at least one pick in nine of those thirteen games for Monday Night Football. Maybe Robinson had Cousins in shotgun in week one to hide his limited mobility? Either way, the Falcon offense did not look much better from the previous seasons under Smith and Ridder at quarterback. Perhaps Penix is the answer, but Morris can not move to him this early in the season with $100 million of his new contract guaranteed. They need more evidence that Cousins cannot work things out. It was fascinating to then see Cousins back under center right away against the Eagles on Monday. Was the reliance on shotgun the previous week an experiment? Was it a short-term tactical diversion? Was it a game-specific adjustment to playing against Watt? Maybe time will tell.Cousins' final numbers look encouraging after expertly leading the Falcons down the field to score the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go without any timeouts left. He completed 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Yet did anyone watching the game think Cousins was playing very well before that final winning? Atlanta only scored six points in the 1st Half, and they only had nine points late in the third quarter. Tight end Kyle Pitts is not being featured in the offense. If not for that final drive when Cousins completed 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards, his stat line looks much different. It took some questionable game management decisions by Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni and a dropped pass by Saquon Barkley which would have iced the game and stopped Cousins from even getting the opportunity to get one final opportunity to lead the offense. The post-game narrative would be much different if the Falcons were now 0-2 coming off a game where Cousins completed 15 of 23 passes for 171 yards with only one touchdown pass and scoring just 15 points. If not for the controversial decision by Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to not blitz Cousins on that final drive and just play prevent defense, Atlanta may not have scored that winning touchdown. Being gifted that opportunity allowed the Falcons to score seven of the 32 points that have scored this season, representing 21.8% of their scoring production. Cousins deserves full credit for taking advantage of the soft coverage to orchestrate that final winning drive. He looked more comfortable operating the two-minute offense that involves the team’s base plays that he did earlier in the game as he continues to learn a new system. Perhaps he will continue to operate the offense as he did in the second half as he gets more comfortable with these schemes and back into game shape after missing so much time. Yet bettors who only look to his final stat line without accounting for the “eye test” regarding how he looked earlier in the game may be coming to a hasty conclusion regarding how good the Atlanta will be with him under center this season.Good luck - TDG.

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